A look back at last night's Browns-Ravens game...
The Browns lost to the Ravens 23-16 last night. The following are some things I took away from this game as I've had time to digest what I saw and come to some reasonable, if not biased conclusions.
The Brandon Weeden debate will probably rage on, but he's continued to show improvement from week to week despite Pat Shurmer's reluctance to run the ball after halftime. Trent Richardson wasn't lighting the world on fire, but he was gaining yards against a good defense. Weeden made one very bad throw on the pick-six, but outside of that and his final airmail, his passes were catchable. His receivers didn't help him by dropping at least five passes. The drop by Greg Little that would've made it 23-20 was particularly rough. Weeden did enough to win this game though.
The offensive line wasn't as offensive tonight. Yes, Weeden was hit, but for the most part, he was able to get the passes off before the hits came. There were a couple of times where that wasn't the case, such as when Haloti Ngata shoved Alex Mack up against Weeden, completely disrupting the play and causing a sack. Overall though, it was a good enough performance. They still need to open up more holes in the run game though. Joe Thomas was hit with another holding penalty, his fourth this season. It was a weak hold, but a hold nonetheless.
Trent Richardson needs the ball more and someone needs to remind Shurmer of this. 14 rushes for 47 yards isn't a lot, but his average of 3.4 ypc was better than Ray Rice's, who was held in check by the Browns defense. Richardson did catch 4 passes for 57 yards, but it still feels like he's being underutilized. Maybe the coaches are still being cautious, but he's seen the endzone four times in four games. Get him the ball. Also, kudos to him seeming to pick up on blitz protection when he was in there.
Josh Cribbs should be lucky to be standing today. The hit he took on a punt return wasn't malicious, but it was still a hard hit that caused his helmet to fly up in the air, knock him out, and cause a fumble. The referees had to review the play to make sure his helmet was on still when he fumbled (a rule I wasn't aware of; if a helmet comes off the ballcarrier while being tackled, the play is whistled dead), but Cribbs was clearly out for a few moments. He has a few extra days to recover from the apparent concussion before the next game, which is good because the Browns need him.
Greg Little still can't reliably catch the ball, but he made a couple of tough catches to help his cause. Unfortunately, the ones he dropped are the ones we all remember, particularly his drop as he fell in the endzone that would've made it 23-20. Instead, the Browns had to kick a field goal to make it 23-16. Little has the ability to make plays, but he just can't seem to consistently do so.
Josh Gordon made a nice catch in the fourth quarter, his lone catch. It was good for 16 yards and he was hit almost immediately after cradling the ball. He held on though and the drive continued after that. He needs to pick it up and show he was worth the second round pick the Browns spent on him. His size and athleticism are apparent, but he still seems to be figuring out the speed of the NFL.
The Browns miss Joe Haden in a bad way. Three games, three big passing days from opponents despite the defensive line and linebackers doing a pretty good job. Dmitri Patterson was picked on in the second half last night while Buster Skrine was attacked last week. Skrine was also hit with a defensive holding on the Ravens final drive that prolonged things and took time away from Weeden on his final drive. It's clear the Browns need another corner to play opposite when Haden comes back regardless.
Phil Dawson just keeps hitting field goal after field goal, no matter what the distance is. He hit three last night, all from 50 yards or beyond to keep the Browns in the game. The scary part? All three could've been good from 60 or beyond. He had that much leg in each kick. The man should get one long-term contract to help finish his career and retire as a Brown.
The defense overall played a solid game, despite the secondary's issues. Craig Robertson played an inspired first half, picking off a Joe Flacco pass in the end zone. Billy Winn continued to show that he belongs in the rotation even after Phil Taylor comes back. Between Ahtyba Rubin, Taylor, Winn, and John Hughes, the Browns have the potential to have a very deep interior in the defensive line. Frostee Rucker was in the backfield a couple of times and Jabaal Sheard picked up his first sack and pressured Flacco on a few other occasions despite being double-teamed at times. D'Qwell Jackson was in on several plays as he continued his strong start to the season.
Travis Benjamin is giving the coaches a reason to keep him in, catching two passes for 26 yards and bringing a punt back 40 yards in relief of the injured Cribbs. Jordan Norwood and Benjamin Watson also played well, although Norwood dropped a couple passes, including a potential touchdown pass. The group needs someone to step up and Benjamin looks like he wants to.
A lot will be made of the wasted time in the first half, as once again Pat Shurmer played it safe when there was plenty of time to try and get a score. Down 9-7 the Browns forced a punt after taking a timeout to stop the clock. They had over 1:30 to move the ball with two timeouts still, yet the first play after the punt was a draw to Richardson for two yards. Maybe Shurmer was trying to catch the Ravens napping, but if not for a big stand on defense, this could've backfired as the Ravens got the ball back with time to spare. However, Sheard picked a great time to get his first sack and the Ravens ended up running out the clock.
Finally, the real referees made their return and the flow of the game was so much better. There was still some chippy play, but the refs were quick to jump in and separate the players involved. Unsportsmanlike conduct penalties were called on either side, Shurmer was hit with one after a questionable intentional grounding penalty was called on Weeden, and Paul Kruger was hit with one with two seconds left when he shoved Thomas down (who did a great acting job to boot; nevertheless Kruger still shoved him and the ref caught him), allowing one last play for the Browns. The refs were decisive and there were no issues with reviews, penalties, spotting the ball, or clock management. In short, they weren't really noticed, and that's a good thing
Going forward, when will the Browns win a game? It doesn't appear to be next week, as they venture to the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants in New York. The Giants are a pass-happy team and this will be the last game missed for Haden, which means a depleted secondary could get scorched one last time unless something crazy happens. After that is a rematch with the Cincinnati Bengals at home, which seems like a much more likely time to get a win. Haden will be back and Richardson and Weeden should have one more game under their belt.
Showing posts with label refs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label refs. Show all posts
Friday, September 28, 2012
Thursday, September 27, 2012
The Sports Mixer - The refs are back and week 4 is upon us
We knew it was only a matter of time.
After last Monday's mess on Monday Night Football, we knew the NFL couldn't let another game be played with the replacement referees. We knew they couldn't risk upsetting another large fanbase as they did with the Green Bay Packers. You could just feel that an agreement was going to be done.
Now we can go back to blaming the real refs for the missed calls going forward. And believe me, it will only take about half a quarter before someone is yelling at the screen, yelling about the refs again.
"How could they miss that?" will be heard across Cleveland and Baltimore at some point.
But we'll still feel better about it all, won't we? At least now we're blaming the real refs, not the ones who were clearly in over their heads at every turn, right?
Here's how I see the sequence of events going down tonight. The refs will run out on the field to a standing ovation. They'll bask in the ovation as if to say "we told you you'd miss us," then the coin toss will get botched, a push in the back on the Browns opening kickoff return will be missed, Joshua Cribbs walks in with his first kickoff for a touchdown in a century (at least it feels that long), and the Ravens fans will be up in arms and the boos will commence.
That being said, I find it highly appropriate that the refs return to the same field where on Sunday night, the fans were chanting an obscentity as loud as I've ever heard and in perfect rhythm with one another. It was like being there, it was so loud. Al Michaels made the comment that it was the largest cow manure chant in the history of sports, and later added that a seven second delay couldn't even save the viewing public.
Which is where I begin my picks. Now that the regular refs are back and the game results can be trusted to be accurate, I'm going to run through the games and give my impressions. Normally I'd save the Browns for last, but seeing that they're playing tonight on the NFL Network, they get to go first for a change.
Now watch me skip the next six weeks before I do this again. You can always count on the Sports Mixer after all.
Browns (0-3) at Ravens (2-1) - 8:20pm NFL Network
Baltimore has been a scary place for the Browns in recent years. Then again, divisional play hasn't been to kind to the Browns. After all, their last divisional win was in Baltimore, in 2007, and almost didn't happen due to the refs (real refs) nearly blowing a field goal call. In that game, Phil Dawson's kick bounced through the uprights twice and only after a mysterious phone call was it considered good. Josh Cribbs then returned a kick 41 yards, setting up Dawson's game-winner in a 33-30 finish.
I don't know that this game is going to be close. The Browns are a young, struggling team trying to find its way in a brutal opening month and a half. The Ravens are a team that suddenly appears weak at defense, yet seems to come through when they need it the most. Take Sunday's game against the Patriots. They are down 30-21, then suddenly the defense steps up, stops Tom Brady several times, and the offense made enough plays (with some help) to win. Torrey Smith played inspired football, playing just after learning that his younger brother was dead, catching two touchdown passes.
The Browns are coming off a loss to the Buffalo Bills where they trailed 17-14 before self-destructing on both offense and defense. Missing three starters on defense has been rough, but oddly abandoning the running game in the third and fourth quarter allowed the Bills' defensive linemen to pin their ears back and rush Brandon Weeden at will, causing him to rush his throws or get sacked. I get that Trent Richardson wasn't picking up huge chunks of yardage, but he looked to be getting stronger as the game went along, making the decision to pass only more baffling.
In the end, two fourth quarter picks sealed the deal in the loss even though Weeden put up modest numbers. Also, look for a possible shake-up at receiver soon if Greg Little doesn't stop dropping passes and posing when he does catch one. Jordan Norwood would love to take his spot.
This game has blowout written all over it, but much like the previous three games, I expect the Browns to hang with the Ravens for a least the first half. I just don't see the Browns having the firepower or defensive ability to stop the Ravens all game long. Ray Rice loves running against the Browns and Joe Flacco looks like an elite quarterback at this point. If the Browns can run a little bit with Richardson, they might hang in there longer, but Ed Reed will likely get Weeden at some point.
Pick: Ravens 31, Browns 17
Sunday
Panthers (1-2) at Falcons (3-0) - 1pm FOX
Cam Newton appeared to regress last Thursday against the Giants. He couldn't run, he couldn't pass, and the Panthers defense was shredded by Eli Manning. This week, they get the Atlanta Falcons, a team that has rolled in its first three games. Last week they smothered Phillip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers in San Diego. This week they get a home game against a struggling and young Panthers team. Steve Smith tried to send his young quarterback a message after the previous loss, but we'll see how Newton responds.
Matt Ryan is continuing to establish that he deserves to be talked about in the same breath as other elite quarterbacks, helped by his receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones. Oh, and having Tony Gonzalez has continued to help the Falcons' offense thrive, just as the defense has thrived for the most part. This game should be a cakewalk for the Falcons, but Newton is due for a big game as well.
Pick: Falcons 34, Panthers 27 in a shootout.
Patriots (1-2) at Bills (2-1) - 1pm CBS
The Patriots look disheveled. Tom Brady is putting up good numbers, but at critical situations, he's no longer the lock he used to be. In the fourth quarter against the Ravens, Brady couldn't get anything going, mustering up just a field goal as the Patriots blew a late lead to the Ravens. This a week after falling short against the Arizona Cardinals on a missed field goal.
The Bills, on the other hand, have recovered nicely after a first week blowout, dismantling the Chiefs and then pulling away from the Browns despite losing CJ Spiller to a shoulder injury. They will have Fred Jackson back though to help keep the running game going strong, which always helps Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bills are in a prime position to take control of the AFC East in this game, much like a few years ago when they started 3-0 coming into Patriots week.
That time, they imploded and never recovered. Will this time be the same? I don't know, but I like the Bills defense this year better than in previous years. That said, Brady and the Pats are going to want to recover quickly before this season spirals on them. I just don't know if they have enough to get past the Bills.
That felt weird typing that.
Pick: Bills 24, Patriots 20
Vikings (2-1) at Lions (1-2) - 1pm FOX
The Vikings are one of the surprises of the season thus far. Christian Ponder has looked improved at quarterback, the defense has played reasonably well, and having Adrian Peterson back has helped immensely. They have the potential to be this year's surprise team, a team no one picked who makes the playoffs by playing way over their heads. Or it could all come crashing down.
The Lions, well, they just haven't played any defense at all. Matthew Stafford has returned to his injury-riddled form before his breakout season last year. Their running game has been a joke. In short, not much has gone right for them. Last week, they completed a remarkable regulation comeback against Tennessee to send the game to overtime, only to have a fourth and one come up short to lose the game. It was admirable to go for it, but when you don't have a running game, well, you probably should try something other than a broken play.
Stafford has to come up big this week for the Lions to win. As much talk as there was about the Lions front four on defense, the unit has struggled mightily thus far and the Vikings are showing some pop on offense. This could be a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Vikings 30, Lions 17 yeah I just contradicted myself.
Chargers (2-1) at Chiefs (1-2) - 1pm CBS
The Chargers want redemption. After laying an egg against the Falcons last week, the Chargers want to rebound and regain control of the AFC West before the Denver Broncos or Oakland Raiders figure themselves out. After all, aside from the Chargers, everyone else is fairly mediocre on paper. At least that's what the Chargers would want you to believe.
Don't tell that to the Chiefs, who overcame a large deficit against the New Orleans Saints to shock them in overtime, largely on the legs of Jaamal Charles and some timely passes by Matt Cassel in the fourth quarter and overtime. This on the heels of consecutive blowouts which had the Chiefs faithful questioning if they were going to win a game.
This is a big game for both teams. A win by the Chiefs puts them in an early tie for first place and an early tiebreaker over the Chargers. A win by the Bolts keeps them in first place regardless of what the Broncos or Raiders do in their game. It also would redeem them of their poor performance last week against the Falcons.
Pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 10 back to reality for the Chiefs
Seahawks (2-1) at Rams (1-2) - 1pm FOX
The Seahawks should feel lucky. The football Gods blessed them with a victory Monday when they should've lost. They have played inspired defense overall, but the offense has looked shakey, no surprise given that they are one of many teams running out a rookie or second year quarterback in Russell Wilson. Wilson has shown glimpses, but has also shown that he's a rookie. Marshawn Lynch has run well, but it hasn't translated into big scoring numbers for the offense.
The Rams have shown improvement so far this year. Yes, last week was a rough one for Sam Bradford and the offense, as the Chicago Bears pretty much did what they wanted on defense, but nonetheless they've established a fairly decent core on offense that should only get better with time. Unfortunately, they get to play another difficult defense, one that should have led the Hawks to a 3-0 record thus far.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Rams 13
49ers (2-1) at Jets (2-1) - 1pm FOX
The 49ers are an angry team. They laid an egg against the Vikings, were thoroughly outplayed on both sides of the ball, and showed no edge on defense, which was unusual. Even a gift timeout and challenge weren't enough to help them win. This spells bad news for the Jets, who really have no business being 2-1. Mark Sanchez hasn't looked particularly good the last two weeks and is going to be facing an angry defense looking to punish someone. I smell a stinker coming from Sanchez and a much better performance from San Fran.
Pick: 49ers 27, Jets 10 I smell a Tebow sighting in this one
Titans (1-2) at Texans (3-0) - 1pm CBS
The Titans went in with Jake Locker this year and he's been, well, a young quarterback. His last game was his best and he continues to do it with no help from Chris Johnson, who apparently forgot that running the football means gaining more than a yard or two each carry. In fact, Locker seems to be pulling rabbits out of his, uh, hat at times, last week's game a prime example. Defensively the Titans are a mess, but they can score occasionally.
The Texans are trying to show they are the best team in football. They have been dominant through three weeks on both sides of the ball and look to prove that last year was just the beginning of good things to come for Texans fans. Matt Schaub shrugged off a brutal hit to lead the Texans to victory last week and with two dynamic running backs behind him, should continue to pile up numbers.
The Titans can prove a lot with a win, but I just can't see them doing it in Houston.
Pick: Texans 27, Titans 7
Raiders (1-2) at Broncos (1-2) - 4:05pm CBS
The Raiders somehow managed to win last week despite giving up huge chunks of offense to the Steelers. It helps that Steelers defense appears to be weak at this point, but you can't overlook the win. It was a huge boost for Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense to get the win heading into this game.
After looking like vintage Peyton Manning in their opening week win, he's had to overcome his own mistakes against the Falcons (three picks in the first quarter) and the lack of a defensive presence in their loss to the Texans. In each case, Manning has come up just short, leading some to wonder if the magic is gone after all. This game is a chance for redemption, and it could come at the expense of the Raiders, which would delight Broncos fans everywhere.
This one has slugfest written all over it, a classic AFC West showdown.
Pick: Raiders 26, Broncos 24
Dolphins (1-2) at Cardinals (3-0) - 4:05pm CBS
The Dolphins deserved a better fate last week. They harrassed Mark Sanchez all-game long and had a chance to win the game, but somehow fell short to the Jets. Yet another team relying on a young quarterback, the Dolphins are going to have their ups and downs through the season. They're hoping for a bounce back this week.
The Cardinals are 3-0 somehow, someway. No one knows how they've done it, yet there they are, 3-0 with a win over the Patriots to boot. Now they get to play at home against the Dolphins, in prime position to take control of the division. Naturally, I expect them to stumble.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Cardinals 6
Bengals (2-1) at Jaguars (1-2) - 4:05pm CBS
The Bengals have had the luxury of playing two weak defenses since their opening weak massacre at the hands of the Ravens. Andy Dalton has looked impressive, building upon his rookie season with the help of AJ Green, despite the lack of a strong running game. The defense has underperformed, but that shouldn't be an issue this week against a weak Jacksonville offense. Maurice Jones-Drew is playing, but if the Bengals stop him, the Jaguars offense will suffer and Dalton can take advantage.
Pick: Bengals 34, Jaguars 10
Saints (0-3) at Packers (1-2) - 4:25pm FOX
At the start of the season, this had marquee matchup written all over it. Now, after the disastrous start for the Saints and a bad call against the Packers, this game has survival written all over it. The Saints look lost without Sean Payton running the show and the Packers seem lost on offense, which has been a huge surprise thus far as the defense has played well. There's a lot riding on this game for both teams. Another loss by the Saints, and a near-dead season is finished. A loss by the Packers puts the rest of their season at risk as well.
Pick: Packers 21, Saints 17
Redskins (1-2) at Buccaneers (1-2) - 4:25pm FOX
The Redskins have been exciting, but they've also been erratic. RGIII has been as advertised, putting up big numbers and giving the Redskins a chance to win, but the defense has been a letdown and penalties have shot the Redskins chances on multiple occasions. The Bucs have been the victim of bad play on both sides of the ball and Josh Freeman seems less and less like the future quarterback with each performance.
Pick: Redskins 27, Buccaneers 14
Giants (2-1) at Eagles (2-1) - 8:20pm NBC
Eli Manning has continued to put up big numbers while Michael Vick has struggled mightily. The Eagles are 2-1 somehow, yet they should be 0-3 given how the offense has turned the ball over. If not for their defense, they would be 0-3. The Giants laid an egg on opening day, but since have piled up the offensive numbers. The defense showed up last week as well to put the hurt on the Panthers' Cam Newton. This week could see Vick's benching.
Pick: Giants 37, Eagles 17
Monday
Bears (2-1) at Cowboys (2-1) - 8:30pm ESPN
The Bears are an enigma. Their defense has been solid, but which Jay Cutler that shows up often determines the Bears outcome. Last week, he wasn't remarkable, but he wasn't horrid either as the Bears handled the Bucs. The week before? A disaster against the Packers. The Cowboys are dysfunctional and Tony Romo has never completely showed he has what it takes to consistently control an offense. Their game against Seattle is a prime example. This game could get ugly.
Pick: Bears 17, Cowboys 14
After last Monday's mess on Monday Night Football, we knew the NFL couldn't let another game be played with the replacement referees. We knew they couldn't risk upsetting another large fanbase as they did with the Green Bay Packers. You could just feel that an agreement was going to be done.
Now we can go back to blaming the real refs for the missed calls going forward. And believe me, it will only take about half a quarter before someone is yelling at the screen, yelling about the refs again.
"How could they miss that?" will be heard across Cleveland and Baltimore at some point.
But we'll still feel better about it all, won't we? At least now we're blaming the real refs, not the ones who were clearly in over their heads at every turn, right?
Here's how I see the sequence of events going down tonight. The refs will run out on the field to a standing ovation. They'll bask in the ovation as if to say "we told you you'd miss us," then the coin toss will get botched, a push in the back on the Browns opening kickoff return will be missed, Joshua Cribbs walks in with his first kickoff for a touchdown in a century (at least it feels that long), and the Ravens fans will be up in arms and the boos will commence.
That being said, I find it highly appropriate that the refs return to the same field where on Sunday night, the fans were chanting an obscentity as loud as I've ever heard and in perfect rhythm with one another. It was like being there, it was so loud. Al Michaels made the comment that it was the largest cow manure chant in the history of sports, and later added that a seven second delay couldn't even save the viewing public.
Which is where I begin my picks. Now that the regular refs are back and the game results can be trusted to be accurate, I'm going to run through the games and give my impressions. Normally I'd save the Browns for last, but seeing that they're playing tonight on the NFL Network, they get to go first for a change.
Now watch me skip the next six weeks before I do this again. You can always count on the Sports Mixer after all.
Browns (0-3) at Ravens (2-1) - 8:20pm NFL Network
Baltimore has been a scary place for the Browns in recent years. Then again, divisional play hasn't been to kind to the Browns. After all, their last divisional win was in Baltimore, in 2007, and almost didn't happen due to the refs (real refs) nearly blowing a field goal call. In that game, Phil Dawson's kick bounced through the uprights twice and only after a mysterious phone call was it considered good. Josh Cribbs then returned a kick 41 yards, setting up Dawson's game-winner in a 33-30 finish.
I don't know that this game is going to be close. The Browns are a young, struggling team trying to find its way in a brutal opening month and a half. The Ravens are a team that suddenly appears weak at defense, yet seems to come through when they need it the most. Take Sunday's game against the Patriots. They are down 30-21, then suddenly the defense steps up, stops Tom Brady several times, and the offense made enough plays (with some help) to win. Torrey Smith played inspired football, playing just after learning that his younger brother was dead, catching two touchdown passes.
The Browns are coming off a loss to the Buffalo Bills where they trailed 17-14 before self-destructing on both offense and defense. Missing three starters on defense has been rough, but oddly abandoning the running game in the third and fourth quarter allowed the Bills' defensive linemen to pin their ears back and rush Brandon Weeden at will, causing him to rush his throws or get sacked. I get that Trent Richardson wasn't picking up huge chunks of yardage, but he looked to be getting stronger as the game went along, making the decision to pass only more baffling.
In the end, two fourth quarter picks sealed the deal in the loss even though Weeden put up modest numbers. Also, look for a possible shake-up at receiver soon if Greg Little doesn't stop dropping passes and posing when he does catch one. Jordan Norwood would love to take his spot.
This game has blowout written all over it, but much like the previous three games, I expect the Browns to hang with the Ravens for a least the first half. I just don't see the Browns having the firepower or defensive ability to stop the Ravens all game long. Ray Rice loves running against the Browns and Joe Flacco looks like an elite quarterback at this point. If the Browns can run a little bit with Richardson, they might hang in there longer, but Ed Reed will likely get Weeden at some point.
Pick: Ravens 31, Browns 17
Sunday
Panthers (1-2) at Falcons (3-0) - 1pm FOX
Cam Newton appeared to regress last Thursday against the Giants. He couldn't run, he couldn't pass, and the Panthers defense was shredded by Eli Manning. This week, they get the Atlanta Falcons, a team that has rolled in its first three games. Last week they smothered Phillip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers in San Diego. This week they get a home game against a struggling and young Panthers team. Steve Smith tried to send his young quarterback a message after the previous loss, but we'll see how Newton responds.
Matt Ryan is continuing to establish that he deserves to be talked about in the same breath as other elite quarterbacks, helped by his receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones. Oh, and having Tony Gonzalez has continued to help the Falcons' offense thrive, just as the defense has thrived for the most part. This game should be a cakewalk for the Falcons, but Newton is due for a big game as well.
Pick: Falcons 34, Panthers 27 in a shootout.
Patriots (1-2) at Bills (2-1) - 1pm CBS
The Patriots look disheveled. Tom Brady is putting up good numbers, but at critical situations, he's no longer the lock he used to be. In the fourth quarter against the Ravens, Brady couldn't get anything going, mustering up just a field goal as the Patriots blew a late lead to the Ravens. This a week after falling short against the Arizona Cardinals on a missed field goal.
The Bills, on the other hand, have recovered nicely after a first week blowout, dismantling the Chiefs and then pulling away from the Browns despite losing CJ Spiller to a shoulder injury. They will have Fred Jackson back though to help keep the running game going strong, which always helps Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bills are in a prime position to take control of the AFC East in this game, much like a few years ago when they started 3-0 coming into Patriots week.
That time, they imploded and never recovered. Will this time be the same? I don't know, but I like the Bills defense this year better than in previous years. That said, Brady and the Pats are going to want to recover quickly before this season spirals on them. I just don't know if they have enough to get past the Bills.
That felt weird typing that.
Pick: Bills 24, Patriots 20
Vikings (2-1) at Lions (1-2) - 1pm FOX
The Vikings are one of the surprises of the season thus far. Christian Ponder has looked improved at quarterback, the defense has played reasonably well, and having Adrian Peterson back has helped immensely. They have the potential to be this year's surprise team, a team no one picked who makes the playoffs by playing way over their heads. Or it could all come crashing down.
The Lions, well, they just haven't played any defense at all. Matthew Stafford has returned to his injury-riddled form before his breakout season last year. Their running game has been a joke. In short, not much has gone right for them. Last week, they completed a remarkable regulation comeback against Tennessee to send the game to overtime, only to have a fourth and one come up short to lose the game. It was admirable to go for it, but when you don't have a running game, well, you probably should try something other than a broken play.
Stafford has to come up big this week for the Lions to win. As much talk as there was about the Lions front four on defense, the unit has struggled mightily thus far and the Vikings are showing some pop on offense. This could be a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Vikings 30, Lions 17 yeah I just contradicted myself.
Chargers (2-1) at Chiefs (1-2) - 1pm CBS
The Chargers want redemption. After laying an egg against the Falcons last week, the Chargers want to rebound and regain control of the AFC West before the Denver Broncos or Oakland Raiders figure themselves out. After all, aside from the Chargers, everyone else is fairly mediocre on paper. At least that's what the Chargers would want you to believe.
Don't tell that to the Chiefs, who overcame a large deficit against the New Orleans Saints to shock them in overtime, largely on the legs of Jaamal Charles and some timely passes by Matt Cassel in the fourth quarter and overtime. This on the heels of consecutive blowouts which had the Chiefs faithful questioning if they were going to win a game.
This is a big game for both teams. A win by the Chiefs puts them in an early tie for first place and an early tiebreaker over the Chargers. A win by the Bolts keeps them in first place regardless of what the Broncos or Raiders do in their game. It also would redeem them of their poor performance last week against the Falcons.
Pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 10 back to reality for the Chiefs
Seahawks (2-1) at Rams (1-2) - 1pm FOX
The Seahawks should feel lucky. The football Gods blessed them with a victory Monday when they should've lost. They have played inspired defense overall, but the offense has looked shakey, no surprise given that they are one of many teams running out a rookie or second year quarterback in Russell Wilson. Wilson has shown glimpses, but has also shown that he's a rookie. Marshawn Lynch has run well, but it hasn't translated into big scoring numbers for the offense.
The Rams have shown improvement so far this year. Yes, last week was a rough one for Sam Bradford and the offense, as the Chicago Bears pretty much did what they wanted on defense, but nonetheless they've established a fairly decent core on offense that should only get better with time. Unfortunately, they get to play another difficult defense, one that should have led the Hawks to a 3-0 record thus far.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Rams 13
49ers (2-1) at Jets (2-1) - 1pm FOX
The 49ers are an angry team. They laid an egg against the Vikings, were thoroughly outplayed on both sides of the ball, and showed no edge on defense, which was unusual. Even a gift timeout and challenge weren't enough to help them win. This spells bad news for the Jets, who really have no business being 2-1. Mark Sanchez hasn't looked particularly good the last two weeks and is going to be facing an angry defense looking to punish someone. I smell a stinker coming from Sanchez and a much better performance from San Fran.
Pick: 49ers 27, Jets 10 I smell a Tebow sighting in this one
Titans (1-2) at Texans (3-0) - 1pm CBS
The Titans went in with Jake Locker this year and he's been, well, a young quarterback. His last game was his best and he continues to do it with no help from Chris Johnson, who apparently forgot that running the football means gaining more than a yard or two each carry. In fact, Locker seems to be pulling rabbits out of his, uh, hat at times, last week's game a prime example. Defensively the Titans are a mess, but they can score occasionally.
The Texans are trying to show they are the best team in football. They have been dominant through three weeks on both sides of the ball and look to prove that last year was just the beginning of good things to come for Texans fans. Matt Schaub shrugged off a brutal hit to lead the Texans to victory last week and with two dynamic running backs behind him, should continue to pile up numbers.
The Titans can prove a lot with a win, but I just can't see them doing it in Houston.
Pick: Texans 27, Titans 7
Raiders (1-2) at Broncos (1-2) - 4:05pm CBS
The Raiders somehow managed to win last week despite giving up huge chunks of offense to the Steelers. It helps that Steelers defense appears to be weak at this point, but you can't overlook the win. It was a huge boost for Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense to get the win heading into this game.
After looking like vintage Peyton Manning in their opening week win, he's had to overcome his own mistakes against the Falcons (three picks in the first quarter) and the lack of a defensive presence in their loss to the Texans. In each case, Manning has come up just short, leading some to wonder if the magic is gone after all. This game is a chance for redemption, and it could come at the expense of the Raiders, which would delight Broncos fans everywhere.
This one has slugfest written all over it, a classic AFC West showdown.
Pick: Raiders 26, Broncos 24
Dolphins (1-2) at Cardinals (3-0) - 4:05pm CBS
The Dolphins deserved a better fate last week. They harrassed Mark Sanchez all-game long and had a chance to win the game, but somehow fell short to the Jets. Yet another team relying on a young quarterback, the Dolphins are going to have their ups and downs through the season. They're hoping for a bounce back this week.
The Cardinals are 3-0 somehow, someway. No one knows how they've done it, yet there they are, 3-0 with a win over the Patriots to boot. Now they get to play at home against the Dolphins, in prime position to take control of the division. Naturally, I expect them to stumble.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Cardinals 6
Bengals (2-1) at Jaguars (1-2) - 4:05pm CBS
The Bengals have had the luxury of playing two weak defenses since their opening weak massacre at the hands of the Ravens. Andy Dalton has looked impressive, building upon his rookie season with the help of AJ Green, despite the lack of a strong running game. The defense has underperformed, but that shouldn't be an issue this week against a weak Jacksonville offense. Maurice Jones-Drew is playing, but if the Bengals stop him, the Jaguars offense will suffer and Dalton can take advantage.
Pick: Bengals 34, Jaguars 10
Saints (0-3) at Packers (1-2) - 4:25pm FOX
At the start of the season, this had marquee matchup written all over it. Now, after the disastrous start for the Saints and a bad call against the Packers, this game has survival written all over it. The Saints look lost without Sean Payton running the show and the Packers seem lost on offense, which has been a huge surprise thus far as the defense has played well. There's a lot riding on this game for both teams. Another loss by the Saints, and a near-dead season is finished. A loss by the Packers puts the rest of their season at risk as well.
Pick: Packers 21, Saints 17
Redskins (1-2) at Buccaneers (1-2) - 4:25pm FOX
The Redskins have been exciting, but they've also been erratic. RGIII has been as advertised, putting up big numbers and giving the Redskins a chance to win, but the defense has been a letdown and penalties have shot the Redskins chances on multiple occasions. The Bucs have been the victim of bad play on both sides of the ball and Josh Freeman seems less and less like the future quarterback with each performance.
Pick: Redskins 27, Buccaneers 14
Giants (2-1) at Eagles (2-1) - 8:20pm NBC
Eli Manning has continued to put up big numbers while Michael Vick has struggled mightily. The Eagles are 2-1 somehow, yet they should be 0-3 given how the offense has turned the ball over. If not for their defense, they would be 0-3. The Giants laid an egg on opening day, but since have piled up the offensive numbers. The defense showed up last week as well to put the hurt on the Panthers' Cam Newton. This week could see Vick's benching.
Pick: Giants 37, Eagles 17
Monday
Bears (2-1) at Cowboys (2-1) - 8:30pm ESPN
The Bears are an enigma. Their defense has been solid, but which Jay Cutler that shows up often determines the Bears outcome. Last week, he wasn't remarkable, but he wasn't horrid either as the Bears handled the Bucs. The week before? A disaster against the Packers. The Cowboys are dysfunctional and Tony Romo has never completely showed he has what it takes to consistently control an offense. Their game against Seattle is a prime example. This game could get ugly.
Pick: Bears 17, Cowboys 14
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