Before I get into my picks for the championship round of the playoffs, let me talk about the two predominant sports stories making the rounds over the last 24 hours.
No, this isn't me stalling because I still haven't decided on who to pick (although that may play a small role in opening with these stories rather than finishing the post with them), but rather me wanting to not talk about these things by talking about them.
Confused?
Good.
The Manti Te'o is perhaps the most annoying story to come out in a long while. Now, I had the opportunity to watch the BCS National Championship game in which Te'o was abused repeatedly by the Alabama offense and appeared to be at least a step slower than the opposing players. As I watched, I tried to figure out how *that* guy ended up finishing second in Heisman voting and how it was as close as it was. He just didn't seem like he belonged on the field, much like the rest of his teammates.
Now the feel-good story about the deaths of his grandmother and girlfriend motivating his play is turning out to be half-true with the revelation that his alleged girlfriend didn't exist. Depending on what the truth ends up being, he was either the victim of a particularly cruel hoax, or played a role in the scam in hopes of increasing his public persona. Of course, one former teammate has already come out and said that a lot of his teammates were skeptical of the girlfriend story, while others are standing up for him (which is another set of issues; I know news outlets are desperate for information and some want attention so badly, but if you were a teammate of someone, why speak out against him?).
Either way, I could care less. If it was a hoax he didn't know about shame on them for doing this to a trusting person. Let him recover and stop talking about it. If he was in on it, stop talking about it! All you're doing is giving him more of the attention he's seeking.
While there are legitimate questions about whether this hurts his draft stock, to me the damage was done in the BCS game when he was abused by the Alabama offense thoroughly. That game, not this worthless story, is what makes me doubt if he's an NFL-caliber player. If he had come up big on the biggest stage, I'd be saying he's a top-five pick. That game leads me to believe anything about the third round is a reach now.
The other story is Chip Kelly going to the Philadelphia Eagles a week after he decided he was going to stay at Oregon. Some, notably those in the Cleveland media, believe the Cleveland Browns should feel scorned or be bothered by this. After all, it is Joe Banner's former team signing Kelly when it was clear the Browns were after him. Me? I don't think they should feel scorned, nor should any fan. They shouldn't be bothered by this at all.
If Kelly wanted to coach the Browns, he'd already have his coaching staff in place and be talking about players to bring in. Instead, it's Rob Chudzinski that's setting up his coaching staff and I'm fine with that. He wants to coach here, he helped Cam Newton put up some impressive numbers at Carolina, and he was the offensive coordinator the last time the Browns had any semblance of a real offense in town. Give him a chance.
But feel spurned by Kelly? The guy may end up being a great coach. You don't know that yet. But I'm not comfortable with a guy who left the Tamba Bay Buccaneers hanging last year, then flirted with the Browns, Bill, and Eagles before deciding he was staying at Oregon, then two days after visiting a recruit, leaves the Ducks to coach the Eagles.
I'm good on that.
Phew.
Now that that's out of the way, let's talk about Championship Sunday, shall we?
San Francisco at Atlanta - 3pm FOX
The 49ers saw one of the most amazing postseason performances put on in recent memory by Colin Kaepernick. He not only threw the ball well, he ran for 181 yards as he did whatever he wanted against the Packers' defense, which really isn't saying much given that the Packers never ONCE adjusted to what the 49ers were doing. Kaepernick has really been remarkable though. He's managed to turn Michael Crabtree into a legitimate receiving threat after appearing to be a semi-bust with Alex Smith as quarterback. That defense isn't performing as well though and that's a concern going against an offense that has a good quarterback, outstanding receivers, a legend at tight end, and a rejuvenated running back. Sure, some of the 31 points given up were just because that was the pace of the game, but the pass rush hasn't been there of late.
The Falcons appeared to be cruising against the Seahawks. They had a 20-0 lead at halftime, and then kept the lead at 20 points at 27-7 after a Seahawks score. It was midway through the third quarter and it was just a formality, right? Well, the Seahawks should've pulled out the victory. They scored 21 unanswered points to take a 28-27 lead with 31 seconds left. 31 seconds. That's what, three or four plays if you're lucky, right? Well, three plays later, Matt Bryant was kicking the game-winning field goal through the uprights from 49 yards out. What should be noted is that Pete Carroll had iced the kicker with a timeout, so of course he missed that kick and was given a second chance, which he used to adjust and make the kick. You can't discount the two throws Matt Ryan made with little time to go. 22 yards on the first one, 19 on the second one, and boom the Falcons were in range to win the game. Ryan has been unflappable this year in those situations, leading the Falcons to multiple wins when they should've lost.
I just don't know which way to go with this one; do I look at the dominant offensive performance of Kaepernick and go with the 49ers? Do I go with the never say die mentality brought by Ryan? I suppose in this case, the tie goes to the home team.
Pick: Falcons 31, 49ers 27
Baltimore at New England - 6:30pm CBS
The Ravens surprised everyone by winning against the Broncos in double-overtime. It took a miracle throw from Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones to do, but they did it and the Ray Lewis retirement tour gets to make at least one more stop, this time in New England where they won earlier this season. You can't deny the Ravens played inspired, never quit, and played until the final kick went through the uprights, but they needed that miracle throw to even force overtime in the first place. Fact is, the defense was getting gashed by Peyton Manning and the Broncos most of the afternoon, then once the offense rescued them, stood tall in overtime. They'll need a much stronger showing against the Patriots, who are completely clicking on all cyclinders.
The Patriots aren't a strong defensive team, but it seems like every week they're up big before their opponent even knows what hit them and for the second time this season, they were whipping the Houston Texans, forcing the Texans to play catch-up, which isn't their strength. Tom Brady doesn't let up off the accelerator either, continuing to go for big plays even when the Pats are up big. This is a team that goes for the kill every chance they get and it's hard to think the Ravens will slow them down.
Truth is, I'm trying to find reasons to pick the Ravens and it's not easy. Maybe the Ray Lewis retirement tour is enough to get them back in the Super Bowl, but it might take another miracle from Flacco and the offense.
Pick: Ravens 30, Patriots 28
Last: 2-2
Overall: 4-4
Showing posts with label ravens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ravens. Show all posts
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
The Sports Mixer - Divisional Playoff Picks
The playoffs are the most difficult picks to make. Teams that appear to be red-hot often cool dramatically when the playoffs start as the pressure ramps the intensity of things up significantly. Teams that were dominant in the regular season wilt under all the pressure the playoffs bring.
For example, the Cincinnati Bengals were on a roll heading into the playoffs while the Houston Texans were faltering. The Texans didn't exactly roll offensively, but their defense did a number on the Bengals and helped them cruise to victory. Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts had been one of the best stories in recent memory, but the Baltimore Ravens turned them to dust as Ray Lewis played his final home game in his long career.
The Minnesota Vikings had outlasted the Green Bay Packers in the regular season finale as Adrian Peterson ran over and through Packers' defenders as if they weren't there, and while he still racked up some good numbers, with Christian Ponder sidelined the Vikings had no offensive answer for the Packers and lost. Meanwhile the Seattle Seahawks spotted the Washington Redskins 14 points before dominating defensively. The injury to Robert Griffin III made things easier, but they still dominated a previously good running game.
The performance makes their upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons much more difficult to predict. Additionally, teams coming off the bye haven't been as sharp in recent years so do you compensate for that factor? Particularly challenging is the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers. The 49ers have been good against elite competition this year, but also can potentially falter when least expected. The Packers can put up numbers, but can the offensive line protect Aaron Rodgers against a very good pass-rush?
Let's find out, shall we?
Saturday
Baltimore (10-6) at Denver (13-3) - 4:30pm CBS
The Ravens needed that first win as much as any team entering the playoffs having lost three of their final four to back into the third seed. Their reward was a very green Colts team that just wasn't able to overcome the return of Ray Lewis to a maligned defensive unit. The Ravens dominated the Colts on both sides of the ball and seemed like a different team. The Colts overachieved all season long, there's no doubt about that, but the Ravens removed the doubt early on. Now they travel to Denver where they lost by 17 points earlier in the season. Additionally, Peyton Manning has a personal nine game winning streak going against the Ravens. Once again, the odds are stacked against the Ravens and I have a hard time seeing them overcome them.
The Broncos ended the season on fire, having won eleven straight games and thoroughly dominating opponents by the last quarter of the season. Peyton Manning continues to defy the odds in that he doesn't look like a guy coming off multiple neck surgeries and one missed season. He has complete control of the Denver offense and runs it at a high tempo to keep defensives on their heels. Not to be outdone, the Broncos' defense has shined led by Von Miller. Finally, this game being in Denver tilts things in the favor of the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 23
Green Bay (11-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1) - 8pm FOX
The Packers exacted revenge against the Vikings for knocking them out of the second seed with their win last week. Defensively they were as good as they'd been all year, although Adrian Peterson still picked up 99 yards, it was a dramatic improvement over the previous two meetings. It helped that Christian Ponder was out, leaving the keys to the offense in the hands of Joe Webb, who had a very tough time throwing the ball. On the other side, the Packers offensive line held up long enough for Aaron Rodgers to get the ball downfield and the running game was just good enough to help with play-action.
The 49ers have one advantage in this game, and it's their defense which excels at getting pressure on the quarterback. Combine that against a shaky offensive line on Green Bay and you have the opportunity for a big game for the defensive line. Colin Kaepernick has been up and down, but he possesses a far-better arm that Webb and if Frank Gore is running hard, the 49ers can control the game and keep Rodgers off the field. That's going to be the biggest key in this game. If they can pressure Rodgers and control the ball, the 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.
Pick: 49ers 23, Packers 20
Sunday
Seattle (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3) - 1pm FOX
This was the toughest game to pick. The Seahawks have been on some kind of roll for several weeks now, but I was betting on RGIII having a big game in his postseason debut. Instead, the Seahawks' defense swarmed the Redskins offense and made life difficult. The Seahawks offense meanwhile was efficient behind Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, who seems to shine brightest in the playoffs (remember his rumbling touchdown against the Saints a couple years back?). They're starting to play as well on the road as they have at home, which is big since they won't get a home game this postseason. They get to go to Atlanta this week and take on one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons are a team that I worry about coming off the bye. Until late in the season, they had struggled at times, yet found ways to win, especially against inferior opponents. Seattle is not inferior and their pass defense is very good, which will challenge Matt Ryan. Luckily, he has Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez to throw passes to, which offsets a relatively weak running game. Ryan can be flustered and has yet to win a playoff game, so this is a big test for him in his march towards elite status. He's flamed out too many times in the playoffs, so it's time for him to step up. I just don't know if he can overcome the roll the Seahawks have been on.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17
Houston (12-4) at New England (12-4) - 4:30pm CBS
This is potentially the best matchup of the weekend as the Texans look to avenge one of the worst losses for them in the regular season, a 42-17 blowout at the hands of the Patriots in Foxboro. Matt Schaub made a solid, if unspectacular playoff debut last week against a good Bengals defense, but his play was sporadic enough to leave question marks about his performance. Arian Foster has been carrying the Texans for two years though, and if he can continue to run well, the Texans will have a chance. They can't fall behind early again like they did last time or it'll be a long evening in New England.
The Patriots seem as ready as they've ever been for a long playoff run. After some early season stumbles and questions about how much Tom Brady has left in the tank, the Patriots went on a tear, consistently beating good teams badly, their only stumble being against the 49ers, and even then they nearly pulled off an incredible comeback. Bill Belichick will have this team ready to go and it could be a long day again for the Texans.
Pick: Patriots 34, Texans 24
Last week: 2-2
For example, the Cincinnati Bengals were on a roll heading into the playoffs while the Houston Texans were faltering. The Texans didn't exactly roll offensively, but their defense did a number on the Bengals and helped them cruise to victory. Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts had been one of the best stories in recent memory, but the Baltimore Ravens turned them to dust as Ray Lewis played his final home game in his long career.
The Minnesota Vikings had outlasted the Green Bay Packers in the regular season finale as Adrian Peterson ran over and through Packers' defenders as if they weren't there, and while he still racked up some good numbers, with Christian Ponder sidelined the Vikings had no offensive answer for the Packers and lost. Meanwhile the Seattle Seahawks spotted the Washington Redskins 14 points before dominating defensively. The injury to Robert Griffin III made things easier, but they still dominated a previously good running game.
The performance makes their upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons much more difficult to predict. Additionally, teams coming off the bye haven't been as sharp in recent years so do you compensate for that factor? Particularly challenging is the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers. The 49ers have been good against elite competition this year, but also can potentially falter when least expected. The Packers can put up numbers, but can the offensive line protect Aaron Rodgers against a very good pass-rush?
Let's find out, shall we?
Saturday
Baltimore (10-6) at Denver (13-3) - 4:30pm CBS
The Ravens needed that first win as much as any team entering the playoffs having lost three of their final four to back into the third seed. Their reward was a very green Colts team that just wasn't able to overcome the return of Ray Lewis to a maligned defensive unit. The Ravens dominated the Colts on both sides of the ball and seemed like a different team. The Colts overachieved all season long, there's no doubt about that, but the Ravens removed the doubt early on. Now they travel to Denver where they lost by 17 points earlier in the season. Additionally, Peyton Manning has a personal nine game winning streak going against the Ravens. Once again, the odds are stacked against the Ravens and I have a hard time seeing them overcome them.
The Broncos ended the season on fire, having won eleven straight games and thoroughly dominating opponents by the last quarter of the season. Peyton Manning continues to defy the odds in that he doesn't look like a guy coming off multiple neck surgeries and one missed season. He has complete control of the Denver offense and runs it at a high tempo to keep defensives on their heels. Not to be outdone, the Broncos' defense has shined led by Von Miller. Finally, this game being in Denver tilts things in the favor of the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 23
Green Bay (11-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1) - 8pm FOX
The Packers exacted revenge against the Vikings for knocking them out of the second seed with their win last week. Defensively they were as good as they'd been all year, although Adrian Peterson still picked up 99 yards, it was a dramatic improvement over the previous two meetings. It helped that Christian Ponder was out, leaving the keys to the offense in the hands of Joe Webb, who had a very tough time throwing the ball. On the other side, the Packers offensive line held up long enough for Aaron Rodgers to get the ball downfield and the running game was just good enough to help with play-action.
The 49ers have one advantage in this game, and it's their defense which excels at getting pressure on the quarterback. Combine that against a shaky offensive line on Green Bay and you have the opportunity for a big game for the defensive line. Colin Kaepernick has been up and down, but he possesses a far-better arm that Webb and if Frank Gore is running hard, the 49ers can control the game and keep Rodgers off the field. That's going to be the biggest key in this game. If they can pressure Rodgers and control the ball, the 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.
Pick: 49ers 23, Packers 20
Sunday
Seattle (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3) - 1pm FOX
This was the toughest game to pick. The Seahawks have been on some kind of roll for several weeks now, but I was betting on RGIII having a big game in his postseason debut. Instead, the Seahawks' defense swarmed the Redskins offense and made life difficult. The Seahawks offense meanwhile was efficient behind Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, who seems to shine brightest in the playoffs (remember his rumbling touchdown against the Saints a couple years back?). They're starting to play as well on the road as they have at home, which is big since they won't get a home game this postseason. They get to go to Atlanta this week and take on one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons are a team that I worry about coming off the bye. Until late in the season, they had struggled at times, yet found ways to win, especially against inferior opponents. Seattle is not inferior and their pass defense is very good, which will challenge Matt Ryan. Luckily, he has Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez to throw passes to, which offsets a relatively weak running game. Ryan can be flustered and has yet to win a playoff game, so this is a big test for him in his march towards elite status. He's flamed out too many times in the playoffs, so it's time for him to step up. I just don't know if he can overcome the roll the Seahawks have been on.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17
Houston (12-4) at New England (12-4) - 4:30pm CBS
This is potentially the best matchup of the weekend as the Texans look to avenge one of the worst losses for them in the regular season, a 42-17 blowout at the hands of the Patriots in Foxboro. Matt Schaub made a solid, if unspectacular playoff debut last week against a good Bengals defense, but his play was sporadic enough to leave question marks about his performance. Arian Foster has been carrying the Texans for two years though, and if he can continue to run well, the Texans will have a chance. They can't fall behind early again like they did last time or it'll be a long evening in New England.
The Patriots seem as ready as they've ever been for a long playoff run. After some early season stumbles and questions about how much Tom Brady has left in the tank, the Patriots went on a tear, consistently beating good teams badly, their only stumble being against the 49ers, and even then they nearly pulled off an incredible comeback. Bill Belichick will have this team ready to go and it could be a long day again for the Texans.
Pick: Patriots 34, Texans 24
Last week: 2-2
Thursday, November 1, 2012
The Sports Mixer - After the midway point
Most teams are now halfway through their schedule in the NFL, and the playoff picture will start to become clear in the coming weeks.
What we've been able to discern at the Sports Mixer is that some teams are definite contenders and others are clearly pretenders. Unfortunately, there are still several teams with question marks above them, making it hard to figure if they're pretenders or contenders.
For the most part, teams that made the playoffs last year are in the running this year, meaning the usual high turnover amongst playoff teams from the previous year is potentially going to be bucked this season. What we do know is that the Texans, Bears, Falcons, 49ers, and Giants are the class of the NFL. The Packers are creeping right back up there, the Broncos are coming on strong, the Patriots are scoring again, the Ravens are trying to hold onto their lead, and the Steelers are starting to show their form from previous seasons.
What will we learn this week though?
We'll learn if the Chargers want to make a run, if the Colts or Dolphins are a legitimate playoff contender, if the Bengals will get back in the AFC North race, if the Lions have some life in them still, if the Raiders will continue to play well, if the Cowboys are truly a Super Bowl contending team, if the Eagles have any resolve, if the Vikings can bounce back against a strong defense, and if the Browns will make it two in a row.
Let's make some picks and see what happens, shall we?
Thursday
Kansas City (1-6) at San Diego (3-4) - 8:20pm NFL Network
The Chiefs are a bad football team. Matt Cassel is only starting because Brady Quinn couldn't stay on the field last week and suffered a concussion. Romeo Crennel is now on the hot seat one year after being praised as a savior in KC. The defense has given up some big plays, but for the most part hasn't been the problem. The Chiefs can't stop giving the ball away on offense and it's killed them all season long. It's been so bad, the only time they've led is when they won in overtime against the Saints, and that was when they took the lead to win the game.
The Chargers were in the driver's seat in the AFC West at 3-1. Since then, they've lost three straight games, most recently to the Browns in as ugly a football game as you'll ever see. Philip Rivers is more likely to be seen screaming at teammates on the sidelines than throwing a touchdown pass these days. They ran the ball well last week, but the big plays just haven't been there and head coach Norv Turner is back on the hot seat again. It may be time to blow things up in San Diego, but this is a game they should win.
Just like last week.
Pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 13
Sunday
Denver (4-3) at Cincinnati (3-4) - 1pm CBS
The Broncos are rolling now behind Peyton Manning, who seems to have found a comfort zone in the offense and with his receivers. The defense has also gotten better in recent weeks, most evident in how they absolutely shut down a high-scoring Saints offense. Did Manning benefit from playing a bad, bad defense last week? Sure, but you still have to make the throws and he did just that. Even tipped balls found their way to the target. Life is good in Denver.
Life isn't so good in Cincy. The Bengals have lost three straight games and this past week head coach Marvin Lewis called out his quarterback, saying he needed to be a louder voice in the huddle. Andy Dalton concurred with his coach's assessment, but it's going to be tough sledding this week. The Bengals have to get a running game going if they want to win, something they haven't done all season.
Pick: Broncos 27, Bengals 24
Arizona (4-4) at Green Bay (5-3) - 1pm FOX
The Cardinals are the worst 4-4 football team ever. They can't run, they can't protect their quarterback, and the defense was shredded last week by the 49ers in their own building. Arguing whether John Skelton is an upgrade over Kevin Kolb is pointless; neither stands a chance until they fix the offensive line, which has been offensive for most of the season. The joke is they're so bad, Skelton is currently getting up from a sack as I write this.
The Packers are a shaky 5-3, but could be 6-2 if not for an infamous blown call a few weeks back. Now the defense gets to go up against a bad line and maybe get its sack numbers up a bit. Clay Matthews, Jr has to be chomping at the bit. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers appears to have righted the ship, although last week's unconvincing win against the Jaguars shows how far the team still has to go on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Packers 35, Cardinals 17
Chicago (6-1) at Tennessee (3-5) - 1pm FOX
The Bears have a very opportunistic defense. They've scored six touchdowns courtesy of their defense, which has helped an underwhelming offense get by. Jay Cutler shows how good he can be when he gets time in the pocket, unfortunately, he doesn't always get the time needed to make a play. Matt Forte has been good, but not spectacular running the ball, which is why most go back to the defense being the primary reason this team is 6-1.
The Titans lost a heart-breaker last week against the Colts. They didn't get a chance in overtime thanks to the twisting, turning, diving play of Vick Ballard, who took a swing pass that was nearly picked off the distance for a touchdown. The Titans have had several chances to win games, but haven't been able to pull it off. This game will be significantly harder for them though. The Bears defense is tough and while the Titans defense may keep them in the game for a while, it ultimately can't keep up with the Bears.
Pick: Bears 20, Titans 12
Miami (4-3) at Indianapolis (4-3) - 1pm CBS
To the Sports Mixer, this is the best game this week. Two young, overachieving teams meeting with their potential playoff futures on the line, what more could you ask for? The Dolphins are coming off their smackdown of the trash-talking Jets, a game they thoroughly dominated on both sides of the ball, even with Ryan Tannehill getting hurt. Tannehill has practiced this week, but they learned they have a capable back-up in Matt Moore. The defense stifled Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense, which isn't saying much, but hey, they did it.
The Colts are one of the biggest surprises of the year so far. Andrew Luck has met and exceeded most expectations, and while RGIII gets most of the rookie headlines, Luck has been the most consistent of the rookie quarterbacks so far. It helps to have Reggie Wayne on your team of course, plus a little bit of luck. The Colts are better at home than on the road, but I think Luck is due for a hiccup at the hands of the Dolphin defense.
Pick: Dolphins 27, Colts 23
Carolina (1-6) at Washington (3-5) - 1pm FOX
Carolina is not a good team. Much like the Chiefs, expectations were high for this team and Cam Newton coming off a fabulous rookie campaign, and like the Chiefs, the Panthers have failed miserably to meet those expectations. Newton played better last week against the Bears, but still lost. He threw a costly pick-six, but redeemed himself by leading the Panthers down to take the lead late. Unfortunately, there was enough time for the Bears to respond and they did against the weak Panther defense.
Robert Griffin III was bound to have a bad game, and if anyone was going to cause him to have a rough day, it would be a Dick-Lebeau led defense. The Steelers prevented RGIII from finding any running room and made passing the ball difficult as well. I think it was something that needed to happen, if only to remind RGIII it's not always that easy in the NFL. I think the Redskins will bounce back this week against a bad Panthers team. It will be a score-fest though since the Redskins defense is so banged up.
Pick: Redskins 34, Panthers 26
Detroit (3-4) at Jacksonville (1-6) - 1pm FOX
The Lions needed last week's win in the worst way. A playoff team a year ago, it had been a struggle for the Lions and continued to be so for much of the day last Sunday against the Seahawks defense. But Matt Stafford and the Lions prevailed on a late score and now have a chance to get some momentum going into a crucial divisional game against the Vikings, but they need to take care of business on the road in Jacksonville first, which could be trickier than anticipated.
The Jags hung in there against the Packers last week, but ultimately couldn't make enough plays on either side of the ball to get the upset victory. Blaine Gabbert came back from injury and tried to keep the Jags close, but the Jags just lack the weapons that other teams have. For a short period, it appeared that game was going to go down to the wire, but the Jags ran out of steam and the Packers pulled away. Now they get another high-flying offense. This will be too much for them.
Pick: Lions 27, Jaguars 13
Buffalo (3-4) at Houston (6-1) - 1pm CBS
The Bills have been an enigma all season long. They sign Mario Williams to a huge contract to improve the defense, and instead they give up 48 points to the Jets (who can't score on anyone), 52 points to the Patriots (after having a 21-7 lead), 45 points to the 49ers (a good offense, but no juggernaut), and 35 points to the Titans (no comment). When they win, the defense has allowed less than 20 points in each game, but when they lose it's bad. Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken his share of the blame, but the defense has played pathetically in their losses. They need to step up if they want to win in Houston.
The Texans were embarrassed by the Packers a couple weeks back and took that frustration out on the Ravens two weeks ago. Now they've had an extra week to prepare for the Bills and this could be a whitewash if the Texans play to their potential. The Bills front four will not scare Matt Schaub and given the Bills poor run defense, this could be a big day for Arian Foster and Ben Tate.
Pick: Texans 34, Bills 24
Tampa Bay (3-4) at Oakland (3-4) - 4:05pm FOX
The Buccaneers came to play last Thursday night in Minnesota. They ran the ball effectively, shut down the Vikings offense, and kept the effort up for 60 minutes. Now they get to go to the Black Hole in Oakland to see if they can get a second win in a row. It won't be easy, but the Bucs can do it if they continue to run the ball and quarterback Josh Freeman is effective passing.
The Raiders are such a baffling team. They get a big win against the Steelers one week, then get pasted by the Broncos the next. They lost a close one to the Falcons and needed overtime to beat the Jags, but rolled to a relatively easy win over the Chiefs (not difficult to do though). Now they host the Bucs with a chance to get back to .500, stay relatively close to the Broncos, and solidify their chances of at least getting into the playoffs. So naturally, they'll have 17 penalties and Carson Palmer will throw four interceptions. I could be completely wrong though. You never know which Raider team will show up.
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Raiders 17 (Sorry Heny)
Minnesota (5-3) at Seattle (4-4) - 4:05pm FOX
The Vikings had a chance to solidify their playoff chances at home last week. Instead, they upchucked all over themselves on both sides of the ball as Tampa Bay rolled to an easy victory. Now they have to go on the road and play in football's toughest environment against a team that gave away their game last week. This could get ugly in a hurry.
The Seahawks have to be mad at themselves right now. They had every opportunity to beat the Lions last week, but the defense let them down and allowed the Lions to sneak away with the win. They get their chance at redemption this week against an underwhelming offense led by Christian Ponder. Shut down Adrian Peterson and this game gets much easier. They should take a cue from the Bucs and run the ball right at the front four of the Vikings, who offered no resistance a week ago. Marshawn Lynch should have a good game.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Vikings 17
Pittsburgh (4-3) at NY Giants (6-2) - 4:25pm CBS
I had trouble with this game. The Steelers have been playing better, but they haven't done so hot on the road this season. A win coupled with a potential Ravens loss could be the opening they need to regain control of the division though, and this could be a fight to the end against a Giants team that underachieves at home historically. If the Steelers can run the ball, this game will be much easier for them.
The Giants are not the best home team under Eli Manning, but they have a chance to make a statement this week. Beat a perennial power at home and all but lock up the NFC East, but the Giants will have to stop the run, run the ball well, and keep Ben Roethlisberger under control for 60 minutes, not an easy task. Manning also needs to play better than he did against the Cowboys last week.
Pick: Giants 30, Steelers 28
Dallas (3-4) at Atlanta (7-0) - 8:20pm NBC
The Cowboys keep trying to tell everyone they're still contenders, yet they keep playing like they don't want to make the playoffs. They came back from a 23-0 deficit against the Giants, but couldn't finish the job despite a couple of opportunities. Tony Romo certainly puts up numbers, but his inability to win big games continues to be a problem. Dez Bryant keeps coming close to being that number one receiver every team craves, but he continues to be plagued by drops.
The Falcons were due for an upset last week, but instead stomped all over the Eagles in Philly. Now they get to come back home and see how they fare against a Dallas team that should be desperate. Matt Ryan has been able to utilize all the weapons at his disposal and it's hard to see the Cowboys defense stopping both Roddy White and Julio Jones, nevermind the hard running of Michael Turner. The defense has stepped up as well, containing the Eagles a week ago.
Pick: Falcons 27, Cowboys 17
Monday
Philadelphia (3-4) at New Orleans (2-5) - 8:30pm ESPN
Shame on the Eagles, really. Firing Juan Castillo was supposed to be the magic fix that turned around Andy Reid's team's season, instead, they played their worst defensive game of the season. Granted, the Falcons are a talented team, but where was the resolve? Where was the grit? Where was the sense of urgency? Where was the pass-rush? Michael Vick hit the reduction button on his turnover machine, but still couldn't generate any offense. This week they could score a bunch of points against a bad Saints defense, but they have to face Drew Brees in the Superdome a week after the Saints offense was shut down.
The Saints, well, what can be said about them? They can score a ton, but they give up a ton of points as well. We saw how bad this team can look when the offense doesn't score in last week's game against the Broncos, but they have a chance at getting back on the winning side against a faltering Eagles team. Brees will most likely come out firing, looking to erase the memory of last week's stinker.
Pick: Saints 37, Eagles 31
The Browns
Baltimore (5-2) at Cleveland (2-6) - 1pm CBS
The Ravens are a hurting football team coming off their bye week. With no Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb, the Ravens were torched by the Texans two weeks ago and now go against a Cleveland team whose confidence is growing by the week. A Cleveland team they had to hang on for dear life against earlier in Baltimore. The Ravens will likely try to get Ray Rice going early, but the defense will have to dig deep against an offense that has grown from week to week.
The Browns won an ugly game against the Chargers last week, but it was still a win. Brandon Weeden didn't light the Chargers up, but he played mistake-free and allowed Trent Richardson to control the offense in the rain and win. The defense played its best game of the season, limiting the Chargers to 6 points and coming up with stops when needed most. They'll need to step it up a notch against the Ravens, but they'll be getting Phil Taylor back this week and have Joe Haden back, who missed the first meeting. This game will come down to whether Weeden can continue to grow as a quarterback and if Richardson can pick up chunks of yardage against the Ravens.
Pick: Browns 27, Ravens 23
Bye week
St. Louis, New England, NY Jets, San Francisco
Last: 11-3
Overall: 50-20
What we've been able to discern at the Sports Mixer is that some teams are definite contenders and others are clearly pretenders. Unfortunately, there are still several teams with question marks above them, making it hard to figure if they're pretenders or contenders.
For the most part, teams that made the playoffs last year are in the running this year, meaning the usual high turnover amongst playoff teams from the previous year is potentially going to be bucked this season. What we do know is that the Texans, Bears, Falcons, 49ers, and Giants are the class of the NFL. The Packers are creeping right back up there, the Broncos are coming on strong, the Patriots are scoring again, the Ravens are trying to hold onto their lead, and the Steelers are starting to show their form from previous seasons.
What will we learn this week though?
We'll learn if the Chargers want to make a run, if the Colts or Dolphins are a legitimate playoff contender, if the Bengals will get back in the AFC North race, if the Lions have some life in them still, if the Raiders will continue to play well, if the Cowboys are truly a Super Bowl contending team, if the Eagles have any resolve, if the Vikings can bounce back against a strong defense, and if the Browns will make it two in a row.
Let's make some picks and see what happens, shall we?
Thursday
Kansas City (1-6) at San Diego (3-4) - 8:20pm NFL Network
The Chiefs are a bad football team. Matt Cassel is only starting because Brady Quinn couldn't stay on the field last week and suffered a concussion. Romeo Crennel is now on the hot seat one year after being praised as a savior in KC. The defense has given up some big plays, but for the most part hasn't been the problem. The Chiefs can't stop giving the ball away on offense and it's killed them all season long. It's been so bad, the only time they've led is when they won in overtime against the Saints, and that was when they took the lead to win the game.
The Chargers were in the driver's seat in the AFC West at 3-1. Since then, they've lost three straight games, most recently to the Browns in as ugly a football game as you'll ever see. Philip Rivers is more likely to be seen screaming at teammates on the sidelines than throwing a touchdown pass these days. They ran the ball well last week, but the big plays just haven't been there and head coach Norv Turner is back on the hot seat again. It may be time to blow things up in San Diego, but this is a game they should win.
Just like last week.
Pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 13
Sunday
Denver (4-3) at Cincinnati (3-4) - 1pm CBS
The Broncos are rolling now behind Peyton Manning, who seems to have found a comfort zone in the offense and with his receivers. The defense has also gotten better in recent weeks, most evident in how they absolutely shut down a high-scoring Saints offense. Did Manning benefit from playing a bad, bad defense last week? Sure, but you still have to make the throws and he did just that. Even tipped balls found their way to the target. Life is good in Denver.
Life isn't so good in Cincy. The Bengals have lost three straight games and this past week head coach Marvin Lewis called out his quarterback, saying he needed to be a louder voice in the huddle. Andy Dalton concurred with his coach's assessment, but it's going to be tough sledding this week. The Bengals have to get a running game going if they want to win, something they haven't done all season.
Pick: Broncos 27, Bengals 24
Arizona (4-4) at Green Bay (5-3) - 1pm FOX
The Cardinals are the worst 4-4 football team ever. They can't run, they can't protect their quarterback, and the defense was shredded last week by the 49ers in their own building. Arguing whether John Skelton is an upgrade over Kevin Kolb is pointless; neither stands a chance until they fix the offensive line, which has been offensive for most of the season. The joke is they're so bad, Skelton is currently getting up from a sack as I write this.
The Packers are a shaky 5-3, but could be 6-2 if not for an infamous blown call a few weeks back. Now the defense gets to go up against a bad line and maybe get its sack numbers up a bit. Clay Matthews, Jr has to be chomping at the bit. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers appears to have righted the ship, although last week's unconvincing win against the Jaguars shows how far the team still has to go on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Packers 35, Cardinals 17
Chicago (6-1) at Tennessee (3-5) - 1pm FOX
The Bears have a very opportunistic defense. They've scored six touchdowns courtesy of their defense, which has helped an underwhelming offense get by. Jay Cutler shows how good he can be when he gets time in the pocket, unfortunately, he doesn't always get the time needed to make a play. Matt Forte has been good, but not spectacular running the ball, which is why most go back to the defense being the primary reason this team is 6-1.
The Titans lost a heart-breaker last week against the Colts. They didn't get a chance in overtime thanks to the twisting, turning, diving play of Vick Ballard, who took a swing pass that was nearly picked off the distance for a touchdown. The Titans have had several chances to win games, but haven't been able to pull it off. This game will be significantly harder for them though. The Bears defense is tough and while the Titans defense may keep them in the game for a while, it ultimately can't keep up with the Bears.
Pick: Bears 20, Titans 12
Miami (4-3) at Indianapolis (4-3) - 1pm CBS
To the Sports Mixer, this is the best game this week. Two young, overachieving teams meeting with their potential playoff futures on the line, what more could you ask for? The Dolphins are coming off their smackdown of the trash-talking Jets, a game they thoroughly dominated on both sides of the ball, even with Ryan Tannehill getting hurt. Tannehill has practiced this week, but they learned they have a capable back-up in Matt Moore. The defense stifled Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense, which isn't saying much, but hey, they did it.
The Colts are one of the biggest surprises of the year so far. Andrew Luck has met and exceeded most expectations, and while RGIII gets most of the rookie headlines, Luck has been the most consistent of the rookie quarterbacks so far. It helps to have Reggie Wayne on your team of course, plus a little bit of luck. The Colts are better at home than on the road, but I think Luck is due for a hiccup at the hands of the Dolphin defense.
Pick: Dolphins 27, Colts 23
Carolina (1-6) at Washington (3-5) - 1pm FOX
Carolina is not a good team. Much like the Chiefs, expectations were high for this team and Cam Newton coming off a fabulous rookie campaign, and like the Chiefs, the Panthers have failed miserably to meet those expectations. Newton played better last week against the Bears, but still lost. He threw a costly pick-six, but redeemed himself by leading the Panthers down to take the lead late. Unfortunately, there was enough time for the Bears to respond and they did against the weak Panther defense.
Robert Griffin III was bound to have a bad game, and if anyone was going to cause him to have a rough day, it would be a Dick-Lebeau led defense. The Steelers prevented RGIII from finding any running room and made passing the ball difficult as well. I think it was something that needed to happen, if only to remind RGIII it's not always that easy in the NFL. I think the Redskins will bounce back this week against a bad Panthers team. It will be a score-fest though since the Redskins defense is so banged up.
Pick: Redskins 34, Panthers 26
Detroit (3-4) at Jacksonville (1-6) - 1pm FOX
The Lions needed last week's win in the worst way. A playoff team a year ago, it had been a struggle for the Lions and continued to be so for much of the day last Sunday against the Seahawks defense. But Matt Stafford and the Lions prevailed on a late score and now have a chance to get some momentum going into a crucial divisional game against the Vikings, but they need to take care of business on the road in Jacksonville first, which could be trickier than anticipated.
The Jags hung in there against the Packers last week, but ultimately couldn't make enough plays on either side of the ball to get the upset victory. Blaine Gabbert came back from injury and tried to keep the Jags close, but the Jags just lack the weapons that other teams have. For a short period, it appeared that game was going to go down to the wire, but the Jags ran out of steam and the Packers pulled away. Now they get another high-flying offense. This will be too much for them.
Pick: Lions 27, Jaguars 13
Buffalo (3-4) at Houston (6-1) - 1pm CBS
The Bills have been an enigma all season long. They sign Mario Williams to a huge contract to improve the defense, and instead they give up 48 points to the Jets (who can't score on anyone), 52 points to the Patriots (after having a 21-7 lead), 45 points to the 49ers (a good offense, but no juggernaut), and 35 points to the Titans (no comment). When they win, the defense has allowed less than 20 points in each game, but when they lose it's bad. Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken his share of the blame, but the defense has played pathetically in their losses. They need to step up if they want to win in Houston.
The Texans were embarrassed by the Packers a couple weeks back and took that frustration out on the Ravens two weeks ago. Now they've had an extra week to prepare for the Bills and this could be a whitewash if the Texans play to their potential. The Bills front four will not scare Matt Schaub and given the Bills poor run defense, this could be a big day for Arian Foster and Ben Tate.
Pick: Texans 34, Bills 24
Tampa Bay (3-4) at Oakland (3-4) - 4:05pm FOX
The Buccaneers came to play last Thursday night in Minnesota. They ran the ball effectively, shut down the Vikings offense, and kept the effort up for 60 minutes. Now they get to go to the Black Hole in Oakland to see if they can get a second win in a row. It won't be easy, but the Bucs can do it if they continue to run the ball and quarterback Josh Freeman is effective passing.
The Raiders are such a baffling team. They get a big win against the Steelers one week, then get pasted by the Broncos the next. They lost a close one to the Falcons and needed overtime to beat the Jags, but rolled to a relatively easy win over the Chiefs (not difficult to do though). Now they host the Bucs with a chance to get back to .500, stay relatively close to the Broncos, and solidify their chances of at least getting into the playoffs. So naturally, they'll have 17 penalties and Carson Palmer will throw four interceptions. I could be completely wrong though. You never know which Raider team will show up.
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Raiders 17 (Sorry Heny)
Minnesota (5-3) at Seattle (4-4) - 4:05pm FOX
The Vikings had a chance to solidify their playoff chances at home last week. Instead, they upchucked all over themselves on both sides of the ball as Tampa Bay rolled to an easy victory. Now they have to go on the road and play in football's toughest environment against a team that gave away their game last week. This could get ugly in a hurry.
The Seahawks have to be mad at themselves right now. They had every opportunity to beat the Lions last week, but the defense let them down and allowed the Lions to sneak away with the win. They get their chance at redemption this week against an underwhelming offense led by Christian Ponder. Shut down Adrian Peterson and this game gets much easier. They should take a cue from the Bucs and run the ball right at the front four of the Vikings, who offered no resistance a week ago. Marshawn Lynch should have a good game.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Vikings 17
Pittsburgh (4-3) at NY Giants (6-2) - 4:25pm CBS
I had trouble with this game. The Steelers have been playing better, but they haven't done so hot on the road this season. A win coupled with a potential Ravens loss could be the opening they need to regain control of the division though, and this could be a fight to the end against a Giants team that underachieves at home historically. If the Steelers can run the ball, this game will be much easier for them.
The Giants are not the best home team under Eli Manning, but they have a chance to make a statement this week. Beat a perennial power at home and all but lock up the NFC East, but the Giants will have to stop the run, run the ball well, and keep Ben Roethlisberger under control for 60 minutes, not an easy task. Manning also needs to play better than he did against the Cowboys last week.
Pick: Giants 30, Steelers 28
Dallas (3-4) at Atlanta (7-0) - 8:20pm NBC
The Cowboys keep trying to tell everyone they're still contenders, yet they keep playing like they don't want to make the playoffs. They came back from a 23-0 deficit against the Giants, but couldn't finish the job despite a couple of opportunities. Tony Romo certainly puts up numbers, but his inability to win big games continues to be a problem. Dez Bryant keeps coming close to being that number one receiver every team craves, but he continues to be plagued by drops.
The Falcons were due for an upset last week, but instead stomped all over the Eagles in Philly. Now they get to come back home and see how they fare against a Dallas team that should be desperate. Matt Ryan has been able to utilize all the weapons at his disposal and it's hard to see the Cowboys defense stopping both Roddy White and Julio Jones, nevermind the hard running of Michael Turner. The defense has stepped up as well, containing the Eagles a week ago.
Pick: Falcons 27, Cowboys 17
Monday
Philadelphia (3-4) at New Orleans (2-5) - 8:30pm ESPN
Shame on the Eagles, really. Firing Juan Castillo was supposed to be the magic fix that turned around Andy Reid's team's season, instead, they played their worst defensive game of the season. Granted, the Falcons are a talented team, but where was the resolve? Where was the grit? Where was the sense of urgency? Where was the pass-rush? Michael Vick hit the reduction button on his turnover machine, but still couldn't generate any offense. This week they could score a bunch of points against a bad Saints defense, but they have to face Drew Brees in the Superdome a week after the Saints offense was shut down.
The Saints, well, what can be said about them? They can score a ton, but they give up a ton of points as well. We saw how bad this team can look when the offense doesn't score in last week's game against the Broncos, but they have a chance at getting back on the winning side against a faltering Eagles team. Brees will most likely come out firing, looking to erase the memory of last week's stinker.
Pick: Saints 37, Eagles 31
The Browns
Baltimore (5-2) at Cleveland (2-6) - 1pm CBS
The Ravens are a hurting football team coming off their bye week. With no Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb, the Ravens were torched by the Texans two weeks ago and now go against a Cleveland team whose confidence is growing by the week. A Cleveland team they had to hang on for dear life against earlier in Baltimore. The Ravens will likely try to get Ray Rice going early, but the defense will have to dig deep against an offense that has grown from week to week.
The Browns won an ugly game against the Chargers last week, but it was still a win. Brandon Weeden didn't light the Chargers up, but he played mistake-free and allowed Trent Richardson to control the offense in the rain and win. The defense played its best game of the season, limiting the Chargers to 6 points and coming up with stops when needed most. They'll need to step it up a notch against the Ravens, but they'll be getting Phil Taylor back this week and have Joe Haden back, who missed the first meeting. This game will come down to whether Weeden can continue to grow as a quarterback and if Richardson can pick up chunks of yardage against the Ravens.
Pick: Browns 27, Ravens 23
Bye week
St. Louis, New England, NY Jets, San Francisco
Last: 11-3
Overall: 50-20
Friday, September 28, 2012
The Sports Mixer - After further review
A look back at last night's Browns-Ravens game...
The Browns lost to the Ravens 23-16 last night. The following are some things I took away from this game as I've had time to digest what I saw and come to some reasonable, if not biased conclusions.
The Brandon Weeden debate will probably rage on, but he's continued to show improvement from week to week despite Pat Shurmer's reluctance to run the ball after halftime. Trent Richardson wasn't lighting the world on fire, but he was gaining yards against a good defense. Weeden made one very bad throw on the pick-six, but outside of that and his final airmail, his passes were catchable. His receivers didn't help him by dropping at least five passes. The drop by Greg Little that would've made it 23-20 was particularly rough. Weeden did enough to win this game though.
The offensive line wasn't as offensive tonight. Yes, Weeden was hit, but for the most part, he was able to get the passes off before the hits came. There were a couple of times where that wasn't the case, such as when Haloti Ngata shoved Alex Mack up against Weeden, completely disrupting the play and causing a sack. Overall though, it was a good enough performance. They still need to open up more holes in the run game though. Joe Thomas was hit with another holding penalty, his fourth this season. It was a weak hold, but a hold nonetheless.
Trent Richardson needs the ball more and someone needs to remind Shurmer of this. 14 rushes for 47 yards isn't a lot, but his average of 3.4 ypc was better than Ray Rice's, who was held in check by the Browns defense. Richardson did catch 4 passes for 57 yards, but it still feels like he's being underutilized. Maybe the coaches are still being cautious, but he's seen the endzone four times in four games. Get him the ball. Also, kudos to him seeming to pick up on blitz protection when he was in there.
Josh Cribbs should be lucky to be standing today. The hit he took on a punt return wasn't malicious, but it was still a hard hit that caused his helmet to fly up in the air, knock him out, and cause a fumble. The referees had to review the play to make sure his helmet was on still when he fumbled (a rule I wasn't aware of; if a helmet comes off the ballcarrier while being tackled, the play is whistled dead), but Cribbs was clearly out for a few moments. He has a few extra days to recover from the apparent concussion before the next game, which is good because the Browns need him.
Greg Little still can't reliably catch the ball, but he made a couple of tough catches to help his cause. Unfortunately, the ones he dropped are the ones we all remember, particularly his drop as he fell in the endzone that would've made it 23-20. Instead, the Browns had to kick a field goal to make it 23-16. Little has the ability to make plays, but he just can't seem to consistently do so.
Josh Gordon made a nice catch in the fourth quarter, his lone catch. It was good for 16 yards and he was hit almost immediately after cradling the ball. He held on though and the drive continued after that. He needs to pick it up and show he was worth the second round pick the Browns spent on him. His size and athleticism are apparent, but he still seems to be figuring out the speed of the NFL.
The Browns miss Joe Haden in a bad way. Three games, three big passing days from opponents despite the defensive line and linebackers doing a pretty good job. Dmitri Patterson was picked on in the second half last night while Buster Skrine was attacked last week. Skrine was also hit with a defensive holding on the Ravens final drive that prolonged things and took time away from Weeden on his final drive. It's clear the Browns need another corner to play opposite when Haden comes back regardless.
Phil Dawson just keeps hitting field goal after field goal, no matter what the distance is. He hit three last night, all from 50 yards or beyond to keep the Browns in the game. The scary part? All three could've been good from 60 or beyond. He had that much leg in each kick. The man should get one long-term contract to help finish his career and retire as a Brown.
The defense overall played a solid game, despite the secondary's issues. Craig Robertson played an inspired first half, picking off a Joe Flacco pass in the end zone. Billy Winn continued to show that he belongs in the rotation even after Phil Taylor comes back. Between Ahtyba Rubin, Taylor, Winn, and John Hughes, the Browns have the potential to have a very deep interior in the defensive line. Frostee Rucker was in the backfield a couple of times and Jabaal Sheard picked up his first sack and pressured Flacco on a few other occasions despite being double-teamed at times. D'Qwell Jackson was in on several plays as he continued his strong start to the season.
Travis Benjamin is giving the coaches a reason to keep him in, catching two passes for 26 yards and bringing a punt back 40 yards in relief of the injured Cribbs. Jordan Norwood and Benjamin Watson also played well, although Norwood dropped a couple passes, including a potential touchdown pass. The group needs someone to step up and Benjamin looks like he wants to.
A lot will be made of the wasted time in the first half, as once again Pat Shurmer played it safe when there was plenty of time to try and get a score. Down 9-7 the Browns forced a punt after taking a timeout to stop the clock. They had over 1:30 to move the ball with two timeouts still, yet the first play after the punt was a draw to Richardson for two yards. Maybe Shurmer was trying to catch the Ravens napping, but if not for a big stand on defense, this could've backfired as the Ravens got the ball back with time to spare. However, Sheard picked a great time to get his first sack and the Ravens ended up running out the clock.
Finally, the real referees made their return and the flow of the game was so much better. There was still some chippy play, but the refs were quick to jump in and separate the players involved. Unsportsmanlike conduct penalties were called on either side, Shurmer was hit with one after a questionable intentional grounding penalty was called on Weeden, and Paul Kruger was hit with one with two seconds left when he shoved Thomas down (who did a great acting job to boot; nevertheless Kruger still shoved him and the ref caught him), allowing one last play for the Browns. The refs were decisive and there were no issues with reviews, penalties, spotting the ball, or clock management. In short, they weren't really noticed, and that's a good thing
Going forward, when will the Browns win a game? It doesn't appear to be next week, as they venture to the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants in New York. The Giants are a pass-happy team and this will be the last game missed for Haden, which means a depleted secondary could get scorched one last time unless something crazy happens. After that is a rematch with the Cincinnati Bengals at home, which seems like a much more likely time to get a win. Haden will be back and Richardson and Weeden should have one more game under their belt.
The Browns lost to the Ravens 23-16 last night. The following are some things I took away from this game as I've had time to digest what I saw and come to some reasonable, if not biased conclusions.
The Brandon Weeden debate will probably rage on, but he's continued to show improvement from week to week despite Pat Shurmer's reluctance to run the ball after halftime. Trent Richardson wasn't lighting the world on fire, but he was gaining yards against a good defense. Weeden made one very bad throw on the pick-six, but outside of that and his final airmail, his passes were catchable. His receivers didn't help him by dropping at least five passes. The drop by Greg Little that would've made it 23-20 was particularly rough. Weeden did enough to win this game though.
The offensive line wasn't as offensive tonight. Yes, Weeden was hit, but for the most part, he was able to get the passes off before the hits came. There were a couple of times where that wasn't the case, such as when Haloti Ngata shoved Alex Mack up against Weeden, completely disrupting the play and causing a sack. Overall though, it was a good enough performance. They still need to open up more holes in the run game though. Joe Thomas was hit with another holding penalty, his fourth this season. It was a weak hold, but a hold nonetheless.
Trent Richardson needs the ball more and someone needs to remind Shurmer of this. 14 rushes for 47 yards isn't a lot, but his average of 3.4 ypc was better than Ray Rice's, who was held in check by the Browns defense. Richardson did catch 4 passes for 57 yards, but it still feels like he's being underutilized. Maybe the coaches are still being cautious, but he's seen the endzone four times in four games. Get him the ball. Also, kudos to him seeming to pick up on blitz protection when he was in there.
Josh Cribbs should be lucky to be standing today. The hit he took on a punt return wasn't malicious, but it was still a hard hit that caused his helmet to fly up in the air, knock him out, and cause a fumble. The referees had to review the play to make sure his helmet was on still when he fumbled (a rule I wasn't aware of; if a helmet comes off the ballcarrier while being tackled, the play is whistled dead), but Cribbs was clearly out for a few moments. He has a few extra days to recover from the apparent concussion before the next game, which is good because the Browns need him.
Greg Little still can't reliably catch the ball, but he made a couple of tough catches to help his cause. Unfortunately, the ones he dropped are the ones we all remember, particularly his drop as he fell in the endzone that would've made it 23-20. Instead, the Browns had to kick a field goal to make it 23-16. Little has the ability to make plays, but he just can't seem to consistently do so.
Josh Gordon made a nice catch in the fourth quarter, his lone catch. It was good for 16 yards and he was hit almost immediately after cradling the ball. He held on though and the drive continued after that. He needs to pick it up and show he was worth the second round pick the Browns spent on him. His size and athleticism are apparent, but he still seems to be figuring out the speed of the NFL.
The Browns miss Joe Haden in a bad way. Three games, three big passing days from opponents despite the defensive line and linebackers doing a pretty good job. Dmitri Patterson was picked on in the second half last night while Buster Skrine was attacked last week. Skrine was also hit with a defensive holding on the Ravens final drive that prolonged things and took time away from Weeden on his final drive. It's clear the Browns need another corner to play opposite when Haden comes back regardless.
Phil Dawson just keeps hitting field goal after field goal, no matter what the distance is. He hit three last night, all from 50 yards or beyond to keep the Browns in the game. The scary part? All three could've been good from 60 or beyond. He had that much leg in each kick. The man should get one long-term contract to help finish his career and retire as a Brown.
The defense overall played a solid game, despite the secondary's issues. Craig Robertson played an inspired first half, picking off a Joe Flacco pass in the end zone. Billy Winn continued to show that he belongs in the rotation even after Phil Taylor comes back. Between Ahtyba Rubin, Taylor, Winn, and John Hughes, the Browns have the potential to have a very deep interior in the defensive line. Frostee Rucker was in the backfield a couple of times and Jabaal Sheard picked up his first sack and pressured Flacco on a few other occasions despite being double-teamed at times. D'Qwell Jackson was in on several plays as he continued his strong start to the season.
Travis Benjamin is giving the coaches a reason to keep him in, catching two passes for 26 yards and bringing a punt back 40 yards in relief of the injured Cribbs. Jordan Norwood and Benjamin Watson also played well, although Norwood dropped a couple passes, including a potential touchdown pass. The group needs someone to step up and Benjamin looks like he wants to.
A lot will be made of the wasted time in the first half, as once again Pat Shurmer played it safe when there was plenty of time to try and get a score. Down 9-7 the Browns forced a punt after taking a timeout to stop the clock. They had over 1:30 to move the ball with two timeouts still, yet the first play after the punt was a draw to Richardson for two yards. Maybe Shurmer was trying to catch the Ravens napping, but if not for a big stand on defense, this could've backfired as the Ravens got the ball back with time to spare. However, Sheard picked a great time to get his first sack and the Ravens ended up running out the clock.
Finally, the real referees made their return and the flow of the game was so much better. There was still some chippy play, but the refs were quick to jump in and separate the players involved. Unsportsmanlike conduct penalties were called on either side, Shurmer was hit with one after a questionable intentional grounding penalty was called on Weeden, and Paul Kruger was hit with one with two seconds left when he shoved Thomas down (who did a great acting job to boot; nevertheless Kruger still shoved him and the ref caught him), allowing one last play for the Browns. The refs were decisive and there were no issues with reviews, penalties, spotting the ball, or clock management. In short, they weren't really noticed, and that's a good thing
Going forward, when will the Browns win a game? It doesn't appear to be next week, as they venture to the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants in New York. The Giants are a pass-happy team and this will be the last game missed for Haden, which means a depleted secondary could get scorched one last time unless something crazy happens. After that is a rematch with the Cincinnati Bengals at home, which seems like a much more likely time to get a win. Haden will be back and Richardson and Weeden should have one more game under their belt.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
The Sports Mixer - The refs are back and week 4 is upon us
We knew it was only a matter of time.
After last Monday's mess on Monday Night Football, we knew the NFL couldn't let another game be played with the replacement referees. We knew they couldn't risk upsetting another large fanbase as they did with the Green Bay Packers. You could just feel that an agreement was going to be done.
Now we can go back to blaming the real refs for the missed calls going forward. And believe me, it will only take about half a quarter before someone is yelling at the screen, yelling about the refs again.
"How could they miss that?" will be heard across Cleveland and Baltimore at some point.
But we'll still feel better about it all, won't we? At least now we're blaming the real refs, not the ones who were clearly in over their heads at every turn, right?
Here's how I see the sequence of events going down tonight. The refs will run out on the field to a standing ovation. They'll bask in the ovation as if to say "we told you you'd miss us," then the coin toss will get botched, a push in the back on the Browns opening kickoff return will be missed, Joshua Cribbs walks in with his first kickoff for a touchdown in a century (at least it feels that long), and the Ravens fans will be up in arms and the boos will commence.
That being said, I find it highly appropriate that the refs return to the same field where on Sunday night, the fans were chanting an obscentity as loud as I've ever heard and in perfect rhythm with one another. It was like being there, it was so loud. Al Michaels made the comment that it was the largest cow manure chant in the history of sports, and later added that a seven second delay couldn't even save the viewing public.
Which is where I begin my picks. Now that the regular refs are back and the game results can be trusted to be accurate, I'm going to run through the games and give my impressions. Normally I'd save the Browns for last, but seeing that they're playing tonight on the NFL Network, they get to go first for a change.
Now watch me skip the next six weeks before I do this again. You can always count on the Sports Mixer after all.
Browns (0-3) at Ravens (2-1) - 8:20pm NFL Network
Baltimore has been a scary place for the Browns in recent years. Then again, divisional play hasn't been to kind to the Browns. After all, their last divisional win was in Baltimore, in 2007, and almost didn't happen due to the refs (real refs) nearly blowing a field goal call. In that game, Phil Dawson's kick bounced through the uprights twice and only after a mysterious phone call was it considered good. Josh Cribbs then returned a kick 41 yards, setting up Dawson's game-winner in a 33-30 finish.
I don't know that this game is going to be close. The Browns are a young, struggling team trying to find its way in a brutal opening month and a half. The Ravens are a team that suddenly appears weak at defense, yet seems to come through when they need it the most. Take Sunday's game against the Patriots. They are down 30-21, then suddenly the defense steps up, stops Tom Brady several times, and the offense made enough plays (with some help) to win. Torrey Smith played inspired football, playing just after learning that his younger brother was dead, catching two touchdown passes.
The Browns are coming off a loss to the Buffalo Bills where they trailed 17-14 before self-destructing on both offense and defense. Missing three starters on defense has been rough, but oddly abandoning the running game in the third and fourth quarter allowed the Bills' defensive linemen to pin their ears back and rush Brandon Weeden at will, causing him to rush his throws or get sacked. I get that Trent Richardson wasn't picking up huge chunks of yardage, but he looked to be getting stronger as the game went along, making the decision to pass only more baffling.
In the end, two fourth quarter picks sealed the deal in the loss even though Weeden put up modest numbers. Also, look for a possible shake-up at receiver soon if Greg Little doesn't stop dropping passes and posing when he does catch one. Jordan Norwood would love to take his spot.
This game has blowout written all over it, but much like the previous three games, I expect the Browns to hang with the Ravens for a least the first half. I just don't see the Browns having the firepower or defensive ability to stop the Ravens all game long. Ray Rice loves running against the Browns and Joe Flacco looks like an elite quarterback at this point. If the Browns can run a little bit with Richardson, they might hang in there longer, but Ed Reed will likely get Weeden at some point.
Pick: Ravens 31, Browns 17
Sunday
Panthers (1-2) at Falcons (3-0) - 1pm FOX
Cam Newton appeared to regress last Thursday against the Giants. He couldn't run, he couldn't pass, and the Panthers defense was shredded by Eli Manning. This week, they get the Atlanta Falcons, a team that has rolled in its first three games. Last week they smothered Phillip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers in San Diego. This week they get a home game against a struggling and young Panthers team. Steve Smith tried to send his young quarterback a message after the previous loss, but we'll see how Newton responds.
Matt Ryan is continuing to establish that he deserves to be talked about in the same breath as other elite quarterbacks, helped by his receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones. Oh, and having Tony Gonzalez has continued to help the Falcons' offense thrive, just as the defense has thrived for the most part. This game should be a cakewalk for the Falcons, but Newton is due for a big game as well.
Pick: Falcons 34, Panthers 27 in a shootout.
Patriots (1-2) at Bills (2-1) - 1pm CBS
The Patriots look disheveled. Tom Brady is putting up good numbers, but at critical situations, he's no longer the lock he used to be. In the fourth quarter against the Ravens, Brady couldn't get anything going, mustering up just a field goal as the Patriots blew a late lead to the Ravens. This a week after falling short against the Arizona Cardinals on a missed field goal.
The Bills, on the other hand, have recovered nicely after a first week blowout, dismantling the Chiefs and then pulling away from the Browns despite losing CJ Spiller to a shoulder injury. They will have Fred Jackson back though to help keep the running game going strong, which always helps Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bills are in a prime position to take control of the AFC East in this game, much like a few years ago when they started 3-0 coming into Patriots week.
That time, they imploded and never recovered. Will this time be the same? I don't know, but I like the Bills defense this year better than in previous years. That said, Brady and the Pats are going to want to recover quickly before this season spirals on them. I just don't know if they have enough to get past the Bills.
That felt weird typing that.
Pick: Bills 24, Patriots 20
Vikings (2-1) at Lions (1-2) - 1pm FOX
The Vikings are one of the surprises of the season thus far. Christian Ponder has looked improved at quarterback, the defense has played reasonably well, and having Adrian Peterson back has helped immensely. They have the potential to be this year's surprise team, a team no one picked who makes the playoffs by playing way over their heads. Or it could all come crashing down.
The Lions, well, they just haven't played any defense at all. Matthew Stafford has returned to his injury-riddled form before his breakout season last year. Their running game has been a joke. In short, not much has gone right for them. Last week, they completed a remarkable regulation comeback against Tennessee to send the game to overtime, only to have a fourth and one come up short to lose the game. It was admirable to go for it, but when you don't have a running game, well, you probably should try something other than a broken play.
Stafford has to come up big this week for the Lions to win. As much talk as there was about the Lions front four on defense, the unit has struggled mightily thus far and the Vikings are showing some pop on offense. This could be a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Vikings 30, Lions 17 yeah I just contradicted myself.
Chargers (2-1) at Chiefs (1-2) - 1pm CBS
The Chargers want redemption. After laying an egg against the Falcons last week, the Chargers want to rebound and regain control of the AFC West before the Denver Broncos or Oakland Raiders figure themselves out. After all, aside from the Chargers, everyone else is fairly mediocre on paper. At least that's what the Chargers would want you to believe.
Don't tell that to the Chiefs, who overcame a large deficit against the New Orleans Saints to shock them in overtime, largely on the legs of Jaamal Charles and some timely passes by Matt Cassel in the fourth quarter and overtime. This on the heels of consecutive blowouts which had the Chiefs faithful questioning if they were going to win a game.
This is a big game for both teams. A win by the Chiefs puts them in an early tie for first place and an early tiebreaker over the Chargers. A win by the Bolts keeps them in first place regardless of what the Broncos or Raiders do in their game. It also would redeem them of their poor performance last week against the Falcons.
Pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 10 back to reality for the Chiefs
Seahawks (2-1) at Rams (1-2) - 1pm FOX
The Seahawks should feel lucky. The football Gods blessed them with a victory Monday when they should've lost. They have played inspired defense overall, but the offense has looked shakey, no surprise given that they are one of many teams running out a rookie or second year quarterback in Russell Wilson. Wilson has shown glimpses, but has also shown that he's a rookie. Marshawn Lynch has run well, but it hasn't translated into big scoring numbers for the offense.
The Rams have shown improvement so far this year. Yes, last week was a rough one for Sam Bradford and the offense, as the Chicago Bears pretty much did what they wanted on defense, but nonetheless they've established a fairly decent core on offense that should only get better with time. Unfortunately, they get to play another difficult defense, one that should have led the Hawks to a 3-0 record thus far.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Rams 13
49ers (2-1) at Jets (2-1) - 1pm FOX
The 49ers are an angry team. They laid an egg against the Vikings, were thoroughly outplayed on both sides of the ball, and showed no edge on defense, which was unusual. Even a gift timeout and challenge weren't enough to help them win. This spells bad news for the Jets, who really have no business being 2-1. Mark Sanchez hasn't looked particularly good the last two weeks and is going to be facing an angry defense looking to punish someone. I smell a stinker coming from Sanchez and a much better performance from San Fran.
Pick: 49ers 27, Jets 10 I smell a Tebow sighting in this one
Titans (1-2) at Texans (3-0) - 1pm CBS
The Titans went in with Jake Locker this year and he's been, well, a young quarterback. His last game was his best and he continues to do it with no help from Chris Johnson, who apparently forgot that running the football means gaining more than a yard or two each carry. In fact, Locker seems to be pulling rabbits out of his, uh, hat at times, last week's game a prime example. Defensively the Titans are a mess, but they can score occasionally.
The Texans are trying to show they are the best team in football. They have been dominant through three weeks on both sides of the ball and look to prove that last year was just the beginning of good things to come for Texans fans. Matt Schaub shrugged off a brutal hit to lead the Texans to victory last week and with two dynamic running backs behind him, should continue to pile up numbers.
The Titans can prove a lot with a win, but I just can't see them doing it in Houston.
Pick: Texans 27, Titans 7
Raiders (1-2) at Broncos (1-2) - 4:05pm CBS
The Raiders somehow managed to win last week despite giving up huge chunks of offense to the Steelers. It helps that Steelers defense appears to be weak at this point, but you can't overlook the win. It was a huge boost for Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense to get the win heading into this game.
After looking like vintage Peyton Manning in their opening week win, he's had to overcome his own mistakes against the Falcons (three picks in the first quarter) and the lack of a defensive presence in their loss to the Texans. In each case, Manning has come up just short, leading some to wonder if the magic is gone after all. This game is a chance for redemption, and it could come at the expense of the Raiders, which would delight Broncos fans everywhere.
This one has slugfest written all over it, a classic AFC West showdown.
Pick: Raiders 26, Broncos 24
Dolphins (1-2) at Cardinals (3-0) - 4:05pm CBS
The Dolphins deserved a better fate last week. They harrassed Mark Sanchez all-game long and had a chance to win the game, but somehow fell short to the Jets. Yet another team relying on a young quarterback, the Dolphins are going to have their ups and downs through the season. They're hoping for a bounce back this week.
The Cardinals are 3-0 somehow, someway. No one knows how they've done it, yet there they are, 3-0 with a win over the Patriots to boot. Now they get to play at home against the Dolphins, in prime position to take control of the division. Naturally, I expect them to stumble.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Cardinals 6
Bengals (2-1) at Jaguars (1-2) - 4:05pm CBS
The Bengals have had the luxury of playing two weak defenses since their opening weak massacre at the hands of the Ravens. Andy Dalton has looked impressive, building upon his rookie season with the help of AJ Green, despite the lack of a strong running game. The defense has underperformed, but that shouldn't be an issue this week against a weak Jacksonville offense. Maurice Jones-Drew is playing, but if the Bengals stop him, the Jaguars offense will suffer and Dalton can take advantage.
Pick: Bengals 34, Jaguars 10
Saints (0-3) at Packers (1-2) - 4:25pm FOX
At the start of the season, this had marquee matchup written all over it. Now, after the disastrous start for the Saints and a bad call against the Packers, this game has survival written all over it. The Saints look lost without Sean Payton running the show and the Packers seem lost on offense, which has been a huge surprise thus far as the defense has played well. There's a lot riding on this game for both teams. Another loss by the Saints, and a near-dead season is finished. A loss by the Packers puts the rest of their season at risk as well.
Pick: Packers 21, Saints 17
Redskins (1-2) at Buccaneers (1-2) - 4:25pm FOX
The Redskins have been exciting, but they've also been erratic. RGIII has been as advertised, putting up big numbers and giving the Redskins a chance to win, but the defense has been a letdown and penalties have shot the Redskins chances on multiple occasions. The Bucs have been the victim of bad play on both sides of the ball and Josh Freeman seems less and less like the future quarterback with each performance.
Pick: Redskins 27, Buccaneers 14
Giants (2-1) at Eagles (2-1) - 8:20pm NBC
Eli Manning has continued to put up big numbers while Michael Vick has struggled mightily. The Eagles are 2-1 somehow, yet they should be 0-3 given how the offense has turned the ball over. If not for their defense, they would be 0-3. The Giants laid an egg on opening day, but since have piled up the offensive numbers. The defense showed up last week as well to put the hurt on the Panthers' Cam Newton. This week could see Vick's benching.
Pick: Giants 37, Eagles 17
Monday
Bears (2-1) at Cowboys (2-1) - 8:30pm ESPN
The Bears are an enigma. Their defense has been solid, but which Jay Cutler that shows up often determines the Bears outcome. Last week, he wasn't remarkable, but he wasn't horrid either as the Bears handled the Bucs. The week before? A disaster against the Packers. The Cowboys are dysfunctional and Tony Romo has never completely showed he has what it takes to consistently control an offense. Their game against Seattle is a prime example. This game could get ugly.
Pick: Bears 17, Cowboys 14
After last Monday's mess on Monday Night Football, we knew the NFL couldn't let another game be played with the replacement referees. We knew they couldn't risk upsetting another large fanbase as they did with the Green Bay Packers. You could just feel that an agreement was going to be done.
Now we can go back to blaming the real refs for the missed calls going forward. And believe me, it will only take about half a quarter before someone is yelling at the screen, yelling about the refs again.
"How could they miss that?" will be heard across Cleveland and Baltimore at some point.
But we'll still feel better about it all, won't we? At least now we're blaming the real refs, not the ones who were clearly in over their heads at every turn, right?
Here's how I see the sequence of events going down tonight. The refs will run out on the field to a standing ovation. They'll bask in the ovation as if to say "we told you you'd miss us," then the coin toss will get botched, a push in the back on the Browns opening kickoff return will be missed, Joshua Cribbs walks in with his first kickoff for a touchdown in a century (at least it feels that long), and the Ravens fans will be up in arms and the boos will commence.
That being said, I find it highly appropriate that the refs return to the same field where on Sunday night, the fans were chanting an obscentity as loud as I've ever heard and in perfect rhythm with one another. It was like being there, it was so loud. Al Michaels made the comment that it was the largest cow manure chant in the history of sports, and later added that a seven second delay couldn't even save the viewing public.
Which is where I begin my picks. Now that the regular refs are back and the game results can be trusted to be accurate, I'm going to run through the games and give my impressions. Normally I'd save the Browns for last, but seeing that they're playing tonight on the NFL Network, they get to go first for a change.
Now watch me skip the next six weeks before I do this again. You can always count on the Sports Mixer after all.
Browns (0-3) at Ravens (2-1) - 8:20pm NFL Network
Baltimore has been a scary place for the Browns in recent years. Then again, divisional play hasn't been to kind to the Browns. After all, their last divisional win was in Baltimore, in 2007, and almost didn't happen due to the refs (real refs) nearly blowing a field goal call. In that game, Phil Dawson's kick bounced through the uprights twice and only after a mysterious phone call was it considered good. Josh Cribbs then returned a kick 41 yards, setting up Dawson's game-winner in a 33-30 finish.
I don't know that this game is going to be close. The Browns are a young, struggling team trying to find its way in a brutal opening month and a half. The Ravens are a team that suddenly appears weak at defense, yet seems to come through when they need it the most. Take Sunday's game against the Patriots. They are down 30-21, then suddenly the defense steps up, stops Tom Brady several times, and the offense made enough plays (with some help) to win. Torrey Smith played inspired football, playing just after learning that his younger brother was dead, catching two touchdown passes.
The Browns are coming off a loss to the Buffalo Bills where they trailed 17-14 before self-destructing on both offense and defense. Missing three starters on defense has been rough, but oddly abandoning the running game in the third and fourth quarter allowed the Bills' defensive linemen to pin their ears back and rush Brandon Weeden at will, causing him to rush his throws or get sacked. I get that Trent Richardson wasn't picking up huge chunks of yardage, but he looked to be getting stronger as the game went along, making the decision to pass only more baffling.
In the end, two fourth quarter picks sealed the deal in the loss even though Weeden put up modest numbers. Also, look for a possible shake-up at receiver soon if Greg Little doesn't stop dropping passes and posing when he does catch one. Jordan Norwood would love to take his spot.
This game has blowout written all over it, but much like the previous three games, I expect the Browns to hang with the Ravens for a least the first half. I just don't see the Browns having the firepower or defensive ability to stop the Ravens all game long. Ray Rice loves running against the Browns and Joe Flacco looks like an elite quarterback at this point. If the Browns can run a little bit with Richardson, they might hang in there longer, but Ed Reed will likely get Weeden at some point.
Pick: Ravens 31, Browns 17
Sunday
Panthers (1-2) at Falcons (3-0) - 1pm FOX
Cam Newton appeared to regress last Thursday against the Giants. He couldn't run, he couldn't pass, and the Panthers defense was shredded by Eli Manning. This week, they get the Atlanta Falcons, a team that has rolled in its first three games. Last week they smothered Phillip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers in San Diego. This week they get a home game against a struggling and young Panthers team. Steve Smith tried to send his young quarterback a message after the previous loss, but we'll see how Newton responds.
Matt Ryan is continuing to establish that he deserves to be talked about in the same breath as other elite quarterbacks, helped by his receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones. Oh, and having Tony Gonzalez has continued to help the Falcons' offense thrive, just as the defense has thrived for the most part. This game should be a cakewalk for the Falcons, but Newton is due for a big game as well.
Pick: Falcons 34, Panthers 27 in a shootout.
Patriots (1-2) at Bills (2-1) - 1pm CBS
The Patriots look disheveled. Tom Brady is putting up good numbers, but at critical situations, he's no longer the lock he used to be. In the fourth quarter against the Ravens, Brady couldn't get anything going, mustering up just a field goal as the Patriots blew a late lead to the Ravens. This a week after falling short against the Arizona Cardinals on a missed field goal.
The Bills, on the other hand, have recovered nicely after a first week blowout, dismantling the Chiefs and then pulling away from the Browns despite losing CJ Spiller to a shoulder injury. They will have Fred Jackson back though to help keep the running game going strong, which always helps Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bills are in a prime position to take control of the AFC East in this game, much like a few years ago when they started 3-0 coming into Patriots week.
That time, they imploded and never recovered. Will this time be the same? I don't know, but I like the Bills defense this year better than in previous years. That said, Brady and the Pats are going to want to recover quickly before this season spirals on them. I just don't know if they have enough to get past the Bills.
That felt weird typing that.
Pick: Bills 24, Patriots 20
Vikings (2-1) at Lions (1-2) - 1pm FOX
The Vikings are one of the surprises of the season thus far. Christian Ponder has looked improved at quarterback, the defense has played reasonably well, and having Adrian Peterson back has helped immensely. They have the potential to be this year's surprise team, a team no one picked who makes the playoffs by playing way over their heads. Or it could all come crashing down.
The Lions, well, they just haven't played any defense at all. Matthew Stafford has returned to his injury-riddled form before his breakout season last year. Their running game has been a joke. In short, not much has gone right for them. Last week, they completed a remarkable regulation comeback against Tennessee to send the game to overtime, only to have a fourth and one come up short to lose the game. It was admirable to go for it, but when you don't have a running game, well, you probably should try something other than a broken play.
Stafford has to come up big this week for the Lions to win. As much talk as there was about the Lions front four on defense, the unit has struggled mightily thus far and the Vikings are showing some pop on offense. This could be a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Vikings 30, Lions 17 yeah I just contradicted myself.
Chargers (2-1) at Chiefs (1-2) - 1pm CBS
The Chargers want redemption. After laying an egg against the Falcons last week, the Chargers want to rebound and regain control of the AFC West before the Denver Broncos or Oakland Raiders figure themselves out. After all, aside from the Chargers, everyone else is fairly mediocre on paper. At least that's what the Chargers would want you to believe.
Don't tell that to the Chiefs, who overcame a large deficit against the New Orleans Saints to shock them in overtime, largely on the legs of Jaamal Charles and some timely passes by Matt Cassel in the fourth quarter and overtime. This on the heels of consecutive blowouts which had the Chiefs faithful questioning if they were going to win a game.
This is a big game for both teams. A win by the Chiefs puts them in an early tie for first place and an early tiebreaker over the Chargers. A win by the Bolts keeps them in first place regardless of what the Broncos or Raiders do in their game. It also would redeem them of their poor performance last week against the Falcons.
Pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 10 back to reality for the Chiefs
Seahawks (2-1) at Rams (1-2) - 1pm FOX
The Seahawks should feel lucky. The football Gods blessed them with a victory Monday when they should've lost. They have played inspired defense overall, but the offense has looked shakey, no surprise given that they are one of many teams running out a rookie or second year quarterback in Russell Wilson. Wilson has shown glimpses, but has also shown that he's a rookie. Marshawn Lynch has run well, but it hasn't translated into big scoring numbers for the offense.
The Rams have shown improvement so far this year. Yes, last week was a rough one for Sam Bradford and the offense, as the Chicago Bears pretty much did what they wanted on defense, but nonetheless they've established a fairly decent core on offense that should only get better with time. Unfortunately, they get to play another difficult defense, one that should have led the Hawks to a 3-0 record thus far.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Rams 13
49ers (2-1) at Jets (2-1) - 1pm FOX
The 49ers are an angry team. They laid an egg against the Vikings, were thoroughly outplayed on both sides of the ball, and showed no edge on defense, which was unusual. Even a gift timeout and challenge weren't enough to help them win. This spells bad news for the Jets, who really have no business being 2-1. Mark Sanchez hasn't looked particularly good the last two weeks and is going to be facing an angry defense looking to punish someone. I smell a stinker coming from Sanchez and a much better performance from San Fran.
Pick: 49ers 27, Jets 10 I smell a Tebow sighting in this one
Titans (1-2) at Texans (3-0) - 1pm CBS
The Titans went in with Jake Locker this year and he's been, well, a young quarterback. His last game was his best and he continues to do it with no help from Chris Johnson, who apparently forgot that running the football means gaining more than a yard or two each carry. In fact, Locker seems to be pulling rabbits out of his, uh, hat at times, last week's game a prime example. Defensively the Titans are a mess, but they can score occasionally.
The Texans are trying to show they are the best team in football. They have been dominant through three weeks on both sides of the ball and look to prove that last year was just the beginning of good things to come for Texans fans. Matt Schaub shrugged off a brutal hit to lead the Texans to victory last week and with two dynamic running backs behind him, should continue to pile up numbers.
The Titans can prove a lot with a win, but I just can't see them doing it in Houston.
Pick: Texans 27, Titans 7
Raiders (1-2) at Broncos (1-2) - 4:05pm CBS
The Raiders somehow managed to win last week despite giving up huge chunks of offense to the Steelers. It helps that Steelers defense appears to be weak at this point, but you can't overlook the win. It was a huge boost for Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense to get the win heading into this game.
After looking like vintage Peyton Manning in their opening week win, he's had to overcome his own mistakes against the Falcons (three picks in the first quarter) and the lack of a defensive presence in their loss to the Texans. In each case, Manning has come up just short, leading some to wonder if the magic is gone after all. This game is a chance for redemption, and it could come at the expense of the Raiders, which would delight Broncos fans everywhere.
This one has slugfest written all over it, a classic AFC West showdown.
Pick: Raiders 26, Broncos 24
Dolphins (1-2) at Cardinals (3-0) - 4:05pm CBS
The Dolphins deserved a better fate last week. They harrassed Mark Sanchez all-game long and had a chance to win the game, but somehow fell short to the Jets. Yet another team relying on a young quarterback, the Dolphins are going to have their ups and downs through the season. They're hoping for a bounce back this week.
The Cardinals are 3-0 somehow, someway. No one knows how they've done it, yet there they are, 3-0 with a win over the Patriots to boot. Now they get to play at home against the Dolphins, in prime position to take control of the division. Naturally, I expect them to stumble.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Cardinals 6
Bengals (2-1) at Jaguars (1-2) - 4:05pm CBS
The Bengals have had the luxury of playing two weak defenses since their opening weak massacre at the hands of the Ravens. Andy Dalton has looked impressive, building upon his rookie season with the help of AJ Green, despite the lack of a strong running game. The defense has underperformed, but that shouldn't be an issue this week against a weak Jacksonville offense. Maurice Jones-Drew is playing, but if the Bengals stop him, the Jaguars offense will suffer and Dalton can take advantage.
Pick: Bengals 34, Jaguars 10
Saints (0-3) at Packers (1-2) - 4:25pm FOX
At the start of the season, this had marquee matchup written all over it. Now, after the disastrous start for the Saints and a bad call against the Packers, this game has survival written all over it. The Saints look lost without Sean Payton running the show and the Packers seem lost on offense, which has been a huge surprise thus far as the defense has played well. There's a lot riding on this game for both teams. Another loss by the Saints, and a near-dead season is finished. A loss by the Packers puts the rest of their season at risk as well.
Pick: Packers 21, Saints 17
Redskins (1-2) at Buccaneers (1-2) - 4:25pm FOX
The Redskins have been exciting, but they've also been erratic. RGIII has been as advertised, putting up big numbers and giving the Redskins a chance to win, but the defense has been a letdown and penalties have shot the Redskins chances on multiple occasions. The Bucs have been the victim of bad play on both sides of the ball and Josh Freeman seems less and less like the future quarterback with each performance.
Pick: Redskins 27, Buccaneers 14
Giants (2-1) at Eagles (2-1) - 8:20pm NBC
Eli Manning has continued to put up big numbers while Michael Vick has struggled mightily. The Eagles are 2-1 somehow, yet they should be 0-3 given how the offense has turned the ball over. If not for their defense, they would be 0-3. The Giants laid an egg on opening day, but since have piled up the offensive numbers. The defense showed up last week as well to put the hurt on the Panthers' Cam Newton. This week could see Vick's benching.
Pick: Giants 37, Eagles 17
Monday
Bears (2-1) at Cowboys (2-1) - 8:30pm ESPN
The Bears are an enigma. Their defense has been solid, but which Jay Cutler that shows up often determines the Bears outcome. Last week, he wasn't remarkable, but he wasn't horrid either as the Bears handled the Bucs. The week before? A disaster against the Packers. The Cowboys are dysfunctional and Tony Romo has never completely showed he has what it takes to consistently control an offense. Their game against Seattle is a prime example. This game could get ugly.
Pick: Bears 17, Cowboys 14
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