The playoffs are the most difficult picks to make. Teams that appear to be red-hot often cool dramatically when the playoffs start as the pressure ramps the intensity of things up significantly. Teams that were dominant in the regular season wilt under all the pressure the playoffs bring.
For example, the Cincinnati Bengals were on a roll heading into the playoffs while the Houston Texans were faltering. The Texans didn't exactly roll offensively, but their defense did a number on the Bengals and helped them cruise to victory. Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts had been one of the best stories in recent memory, but the Baltimore Ravens turned them to dust as Ray Lewis played his final home game in his long career.
The Minnesota Vikings had outlasted the Green Bay Packers in the regular season finale as Adrian Peterson ran over and through Packers' defenders as if they weren't there, and while he still racked up some good numbers, with Christian Ponder sidelined the Vikings had no offensive answer for the Packers and lost. Meanwhile the Seattle Seahawks spotted the Washington Redskins 14 points before dominating defensively. The injury to Robert Griffin III made things easier, but they still dominated a previously good running game.
The performance makes their upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons much more difficult to predict. Additionally, teams coming off the bye haven't been as sharp in recent years so do you compensate for that factor? Particularly challenging is the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers. The 49ers have been good against elite competition this year, but also can potentially falter when least expected. The Packers can put up numbers, but can the offensive line protect Aaron Rodgers against a very good pass-rush?
Let's find out, shall we?
Saturday
Baltimore (10-6) at Denver (13-3) - 4:30pm CBS
The Ravens needed that first win as much as any team entering the playoffs having lost three of their final four to back into the third seed. Their reward was a very green Colts team that just wasn't able to overcome the return of Ray Lewis to a maligned defensive unit. The Ravens dominated the Colts on both sides of the ball and seemed like a different team. The Colts overachieved all season long, there's no doubt about that, but the Ravens removed the doubt early on. Now they travel to Denver where they lost by 17 points earlier in the season. Additionally, Peyton Manning has a personal nine game winning streak going against the Ravens. Once again, the odds are stacked against the Ravens and I have a hard time seeing them overcome them.
The Broncos ended the season on fire, having won eleven straight games and thoroughly dominating opponents by the last quarter of the season. Peyton Manning continues to defy the odds in that he doesn't look like a guy coming off multiple neck surgeries and one missed season. He has complete control of the Denver offense and runs it at a high tempo to keep defensives on their heels. Not to be outdone, the Broncos' defense has shined led by Von Miller. Finally, this game being in Denver tilts things in the favor of the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 23
Green Bay (11-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1) - 8pm FOX
The Packers exacted revenge against the Vikings for knocking them out of the second seed with their win last week. Defensively they were as good as they'd been all year, although Adrian Peterson still picked up 99 yards, it was a dramatic improvement over the previous two meetings. It helped that Christian Ponder was out, leaving the keys to the offense in the hands of Joe Webb, who had a very tough time throwing the ball. On the other side, the Packers offensive line held up long enough for Aaron Rodgers to get the ball downfield and the running game was just good enough to help with play-action.
The 49ers have one advantage in this game, and it's their defense which excels at getting pressure on the quarterback. Combine that against a shaky offensive line on Green Bay and you have the opportunity for a big game for the defensive line. Colin Kaepernick has been up and down, but he possesses a far-better arm that Webb and if Frank Gore is running hard, the 49ers can control the game and keep Rodgers off the field. That's going to be the biggest key in this game. If they can pressure Rodgers and control the ball, the 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.
Pick: 49ers 23, Packers 20
Sunday
Seattle (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3) - 1pm FOX
This was the toughest game to pick. The Seahawks have been on some kind of roll for several weeks now, but I was betting on RGIII having a big game in his postseason debut. Instead, the Seahawks' defense swarmed the Redskins offense and made life difficult. The Seahawks offense meanwhile was efficient behind Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, who seems to shine brightest in the playoffs (remember his rumbling touchdown against the Saints a couple years back?). They're starting to play as well on the road as they have at home, which is big since they won't get a home game this postseason. They get to go to Atlanta this week and take on one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons are a team that I worry about coming off the bye. Until late in the season, they had struggled at times, yet found ways to win, especially against inferior opponents. Seattle is not inferior and their pass defense is very good, which will challenge Matt Ryan. Luckily, he has Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez to throw passes to, which offsets a relatively weak running game. Ryan can be flustered and has yet to win a playoff game, so this is a big test for him in his march towards elite status. He's flamed out too many times in the playoffs, so it's time for him to step up. I just don't know if he can overcome the roll the Seahawks have been on.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17
Houston (12-4) at New England (12-4) - 4:30pm CBS
This is potentially the best matchup of the weekend as the Texans look to avenge one of the worst losses for them in the regular season, a 42-17 blowout at the hands of the Patriots in Foxboro. Matt Schaub made a solid, if unspectacular playoff debut last week against a good Bengals defense, but his play was sporadic enough to leave question marks about his performance. Arian Foster has been carrying the Texans for two years though, and if he can continue to run well, the Texans will have a chance. They can't fall behind early again like they did last time or it'll be a long evening in New England.
The Patriots seem as ready as they've ever been for a long playoff run. After some early season stumbles and questions about how much Tom Brady has left in the tank, the Patriots went on a tear, consistently beating good teams badly, their only stumble being against the 49ers, and even then they nearly pulled off an incredible comeback. Bill Belichick will have this team ready to go and it could be a long day again for the Texans.
Pick: Patriots 34, Texans 24
Last week: 2-2
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Friday, January 4, 2013
The Sports Mixer NFL Playoff Primer
The Sports Mixer is back after taking a couple of weeks off due to the holiday rush and generally not having time in general to get any writing done.
I know, it's weak, but it's the best excuse I can offer up.
After missing the final two weeks of picks, I'm back not only to prepare you for the playoffs, but offer up my picks for the Wildcard round of the playoffs, which could be the most competitive round we've seen in years.
To begin, we'll look at each team that made the playoffs and talk about how they made it, their strengths, their weaknesses, and what chance they have at actually making it to the promised land. Will we see another sixth-seeded wildcard team make the Super Bowl this year? Seems unlikely but in the playoffs, the hottest team wins.
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
How they got in - the Broncos enter the playoffs as the hottest team in football. They won their final eleven games in convincing fashion to literally waltz into the postseason. They vaulted into the top seed thanks to the Texans and Ravens faltering down the stretch and the arm of Peyton Manning, who seems to have lost nothing from his multiple neck surgeries.
Strengths - the arm of Manning and a physical defense that took down even the most stout of offensive lines.
Weaknesses - It's hard to find something that the Broncos weren't good at. If there is a weakness, it's the secondary isn't very deep, but that tends to be true of most teams. There's also the concern of Manning if he gets hit the wrong way given his recent neck issues.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Probably the highest of any team, although Manning tends to suffer in the playoffs historically.
2. New England Patriots
How they got in - the Patriots also finished hot, winning 9 of their last 10, and almost made it more by nearly pulling off the improbable comeback against the 49ers. It doesn't seem to matter that Tom Brady is getting older; Bill Belichick's teams always seem to find a way and this year has been no different. He's retooled his defense, put together an impressive array of running backs, and finds players that others toss aside.
Strengths - Brady, Belichick, and the supporting roster. This team has been in the playoffs multiple times and won't have a deer in headlights look to it.
Weaknesses - The secondary can be soft and give up big plays. Also, aside from Danny Woodhead, none of their running backs is exceptionally experienced in posteason play.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Up there simply because Brady and Belichick will be ready. The Patriots haven't been to multiple Super Bowls on accident after all.
3. Houston Texans
How they got in - They pretty much backed in by getting hot early in the season, then faltered down the stretch. They lost 3 out of their last four, the lone win coming at home against the Colts. If they want to advance, they'll need to snap out of the funk that dropped them from top seed to the third seed facing the Bengals again in the opening round.
Strengths - Arian Foster and Andre Johnson on offense and JJ Watt on defense. That said, this team hasn't been the same defensively since Brian Cushing went down with a season-ending injury.
Weaknesses - As hard as it is to say this, Matt Schaub is a weakness if the Texans fall behind big. He's just not capable of the quick-strike big play. The linebackers are a liability as well.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - were dramatically higher earlier in the season. Now they'll be lucky to make it out of the first round.
4. Baltimore Ravens
How they got in - Like Houston, they've backed their way into the playoffs, losing 4 out of 5 and looking very ragged. Things were so bad that Cam Cameron was tanked as offensive coordinator in favor of Jim Caldwell. Things did not improve however and Joe Flacco continues to raise questions if he's an elite quarterback.
Strengths - Ray Rice and if Ray Lewis returns, his energy will give the defense a boost it sorely needs. Torrey Smith needs to re-emerge as a big-play receiver as well.
Weaknesses - As odd as it seems, the defense has become a weakness for the Ravens, especially against the run. Overall, the defensive numbers are way down.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - This team seems flat right now and if they don't give themselves a jolt, will be watching someone else play. Right now the odds aren't good.
5. Indianapolis Colts
How they got in - On the arm of Andrew Luck and the emotion of the Chuck Pagano story that has riveted the league since it was announced he had leukemia. Now Pagano is back and it can't be overlooked the job that Bruce Arians did in his absence. The Colts may be the story of the year right now no matter what happens.
Strengths - Luck, obviously, and Reggie Wayne lead an overachieving offense that compensates for a porous defense. You can say that coaching has been a strength as well. No team has been more ready to play week in and week out.
Weaknesses - The run defense has been poor all year and the defense in generally can give up some big plays. The offense has overcome a lot of the mistakes though.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not great, but don't be surprised to see them make a run at it.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
How they got in - By winning 7 of their last 8 games with a stout defense and Andy Dalton limiting his mistakes on offense. He was an interception machine at the start of the season, but cut down on the picks and started finding AJ Green on a more consistent basis. Benjarvis Green-Ellis also provided a huge spark in the running game over the last several weeks.
Strengths - Dalton, Green, and a very good defensive line.
Weaknesses - The receiving corp behind Green is suspect and the secondary isn't the greatest either.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Six seeds always seem to surprise and this one could do the same if they get past the Texans.
NFC
1. Atlanta Falcons
How they got in - By absolutely controlling the NFC South until it didn't matter and they could coast into the playoffs. Matt Ryan continued to show why he could be considered an elite quarterback, pulling off a couple of comeback wins, but he'll need to win in the playoffs now. The Falcons have a solid defense to compliment a potentially explosive offense.
Strengths - Ryan, Roddy White, and Julio Jones lead an offense that can score quickly, or hold onto the ball with Michael Turner running.
Weaknesses - The defense should be more stout, but it hasn't been consistent. Turner also hasn't shown a ton of consistency.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - In a stacked NFC? Not as good as the Broncos in the AFC, but Ryan will be trying to prove he can take his team to the promised land.
2. San Francisco
How they got in - By barely controlling a division that was theirs for the taking until it was realized they couldn't win in their own division consistently. They beat the elite teams, but struggled against lesser competition, especially the St. Louis Rams. They get a bye but will likely struggle in their opening game.
Strengths - A physical defense that can dominate the opponent if clicking and Jim Harbaugh seems to work magic with players such as Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick.
Weaknesses - Offensively, if they can't run the ball, things seem to fall apart for the 49ers. Kaepernick has wowed at times, and at other times looked lost on the field. Frank Gore needs to run hard for the 49ers to advance very far.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not very good from this corner. Let's call it watching them look bad at the worst possible times.
3. Green Bay Packers
How they got in - By going 9-2 after starting 2-3, giving them the NFC North title and a home game against the Vikings, who they split two meetings with during the regular season. In any other year, they might be the best in the NFC, which only shows how tough the conference was this year.
Strengths - This one's easy: Aaron Rodgers and his compliment of receivers who catch most anything that comes near them.
Weaknesses - Also easy, it's a defense that improved during the year, but still can spring a leak at inopportune times. The offensive line has also left something to be desired, making Rodgers performances even more impressive.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - I'd almost give them better odds than the Falcons if their defense was better, but pretty good as is. If Rodgers gets hot, the rest of the NFC can just go home.
4. Washington Redskins
How they got in - RGIII, RGIII, Alfred Morris, and a brilliant coaching job by Mike Shanahan. Oh, and a defense that found itself in the second half of the season. The Redskins went from 3-6 and out of the hunt to 10-6 and winners of the NFC East. Oh, and they beat the Dallas Cowboys to finish the job. Not too shabby.
Strengths - Even hurt, Robert Griffin III is better than most players on the field. If he's managed to heal up some, this is a very dangerous team. Morris came out of the sixth round to rush for more than 1600 yards, far-surpassing any expectations.
Weaknesses - The defense improved, but I'm still not sold on them getting it done in the playoffs.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not great, but I think they'll cause plenty of trouble for anyone they face, including another dark horse in the Seahawks.
5. Seattle Seahawks
How they got in - By being virtually unbeatable at home and picking up a couple wins on the road. Russell Wilson grew up a lot in his rookie season and with Marshawn Lynch running the ball, the defense was able to attack opponents at will, which they did with remarkable precision.
Strengths - The defense is without a doubt the strength of this team, but the offense is catching up quick. Can't overlook the coaching job done by Pete Carroll either.
Weaknesses - Road games. This team was 8-0 at home, but 3-5 on the road where they looked far-less aggressive. If this team had a better seeding, they'd be a virtual lock.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - As stated before, would be much higher if they were at home, as is, they'll give the Redskins all they can handle.
6. Minnesota Vikings
How they got in - By beating the Packers in their final game behind Adrian Peterson and a competent performance from Christian Ponder. They did just enough to get in, but I can't seem them making much noise this year.
Strengths - Peterson. His run at the rushing record was awe-inspiring, especially when a year ago he was recovering from surgery on his torn ACL.
Weaknesses - Ponder hasn't shown he can consistently perform at this level and while the defense can get after the quarterback, they aren't very good at stopping the run.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - The only slim-to-none team in the playoffs. Getting past the Packers in Lambeau is going to be very difficult.
And now we get to the picks!
Saturday
Cincinnati (10-6) at Houston (12-4) - 4:30pm NBC
At this point, have the Bengals grown enough to win in the first round? Have they figured out how to beat an elite team on the road? The Bengals haven't won a playoff game since the 80's and would look to be difficult to get that first win against the Texans, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Ah, but last year is just that: last year, and this year the Bengals are on a roll heading in. Andy Dalton hasn't always performed well this season, but his play of late has been much better. Benjarvis Green-Ellis isn't healthy, but the Bengals need him to run well against a good Texans defense.
Luckily for the Bengals, the Texans have been struggling going into the playoffs and defensively haven't been very good since Brian Cushing went down earlier in the year. JJ Watt has had an outstanding season, but the if the Bengals can control him, they have a great shot at winning this game. Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson have had great years, but if the Texans fall behind, they have trouble catching up.
Pick: Bengals 27, Texans 23
Minnesota (10-6) at Green Bay (11-5) - 8pm NBC
I know the Vikings just beat the Packers behind Adrian Peterson and his run at the rushing record (sorry, couldn't resist that one). He came up 9 yards short, but the Vikings got the win and a trip to the playoffs when a few weeks ago many wondered if they'd finish with a winning record. Christian Ponder won't wow you, but he's been good enough lately to make some plays and keep the Vikings in the game.
Aaron Rodgers is going to want to avenge that final game though. He was rattled by the pressure by the Vikings at times, but still led the Packers to 34 points and a chance at victory. Instead, he watched as the Vikings ran the ball down the field to kick the game winning field goal. This game though is at Lambeau Field, where the Packers don't lose often in the playoffs. The Packers will try to make an early statement.
Pick: Packers 31, Vikings 20
Sunday
Indianapolis (11-5) at Baltimore (10-6) - 1pm CBS
It's not often that a team finishes with a better record than its opponent and is an underdog, but that's just what the Colts are. They've also been a fantastic story from the remarkable turnaround from last year to Chuck Pagano's battle with leukemia. They were 1-3 when he left the team to be treated and all Bruce Arians did was go 9-3 in relief before Pagano returned for the final game. Andrew Luck was as good as advertised and the Colts pulled out several wins that they frankly should've lost.
Unfortunately, luck eventually runs out and if the Ravens can find some inspiration behind Ray Lewis declaring he's retiring after this season, it could be a long day for the Colts in Baltimore. The Ravens were good at home and that will be one advantage they have. Another is Ray Rice against a poor run defense and if Jim Caldwell has any sense, he'll have Joe Flacco hand the ball off repeatedly to Rice. Regardless, this is a game that the Ravens should win.
Pick: Ravens 27, Colts 23
Seattle (11-5) at Washington (10-6) - 4:30pm FOX
This is one of the most unlikely playoff matchups in recent memory. Neither team was expected to make the playoffs, just be better than the previous year. Now here we are, getting ready to watch the Seahawks face the Redskins. The Seahawks have played tremendous defense all year long and Russell Wilson has continued to improve throughout the season to the point that many believe he's a potential superstar. Their problem tends to be playing on the road, which is what they have to do in this matchup.
The Redskins were dead and buried at 3-6 earlier in the season. Then they went 7-0 to finish the season, watching Robert Griffin III grit his teeth through injury to lead the Redskins to the playoffs. Even sweeter was knocking out the Cowboys to win the division. Now RGIII gets his chance to shine on the playoff stage and I don't think he'll disappoint. Coupled with Alfred Morris, this is a dangerous team to face. The Seahawks defense may finally break this week.
Pick: Redskins 20, Seahawks 17
Season: 124-48-1
I know, it's weak, but it's the best excuse I can offer up.
After missing the final two weeks of picks, I'm back not only to prepare you for the playoffs, but offer up my picks for the Wildcard round of the playoffs, which could be the most competitive round we've seen in years.
To begin, we'll look at each team that made the playoffs and talk about how they made it, their strengths, their weaknesses, and what chance they have at actually making it to the promised land. Will we see another sixth-seeded wildcard team make the Super Bowl this year? Seems unlikely but in the playoffs, the hottest team wins.
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
How they got in - the Broncos enter the playoffs as the hottest team in football. They won their final eleven games in convincing fashion to literally waltz into the postseason. They vaulted into the top seed thanks to the Texans and Ravens faltering down the stretch and the arm of Peyton Manning, who seems to have lost nothing from his multiple neck surgeries.
Strengths - the arm of Manning and a physical defense that took down even the most stout of offensive lines.
Weaknesses - It's hard to find something that the Broncos weren't good at. If there is a weakness, it's the secondary isn't very deep, but that tends to be true of most teams. There's also the concern of Manning if he gets hit the wrong way given his recent neck issues.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Probably the highest of any team, although Manning tends to suffer in the playoffs historically.
2. New England Patriots
How they got in - the Patriots also finished hot, winning 9 of their last 10, and almost made it more by nearly pulling off the improbable comeback against the 49ers. It doesn't seem to matter that Tom Brady is getting older; Bill Belichick's teams always seem to find a way and this year has been no different. He's retooled his defense, put together an impressive array of running backs, and finds players that others toss aside.
Strengths - Brady, Belichick, and the supporting roster. This team has been in the playoffs multiple times and won't have a deer in headlights look to it.
Weaknesses - The secondary can be soft and give up big plays. Also, aside from Danny Woodhead, none of their running backs is exceptionally experienced in posteason play.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Up there simply because Brady and Belichick will be ready. The Patriots haven't been to multiple Super Bowls on accident after all.
3. Houston Texans
How they got in - They pretty much backed in by getting hot early in the season, then faltered down the stretch. They lost 3 out of their last four, the lone win coming at home against the Colts. If they want to advance, they'll need to snap out of the funk that dropped them from top seed to the third seed facing the Bengals again in the opening round.
Strengths - Arian Foster and Andre Johnson on offense and JJ Watt on defense. That said, this team hasn't been the same defensively since Brian Cushing went down with a season-ending injury.
Weaknesses - As hard as it is to say this, Matt Schaub is a weakness if the Texans fall behind big. He's just not capable of the quick-strike big play. The linebackers are a liability as well.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - were dramatically higher earlier in the season. Now they'll be lucky to make it out of the first round.
4. Baltimore Ravens
How they got in - Like Houston, they've backed their way into the playoffs, losing 4 out of 5 and looking very ragged. Things were so bad that Cam Cameron was tanked as offensive coordinator in favor of Jim Caldwell. Things did not improve however and Joe Flacco continues to raise questions if he's an elite quarterback.
Strengths - Ray Rice and if Ray Lewis returns, his energy will give the defense a boost it sorely needs. Torrey Smith needs to re-emerge as a big-play receiver as well.
Weaknesses - As odd as it seems, the defense has become a weakness for the Ravens, especially against the run. Overall, the defensive numbers are way down.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - This team seems flat right now and if they don't give themselves a jolt, will be watching someone else play. Right now the odds aren't good.
5. Indianapolis Colts
How they got in - On the arm of Andrew Luck and the emotion of the Chuck Pagano story that has riveted the league since it was announced he had leukemia. Now Pagano is back and it can't be overlooked the job that Bruce Arians did in his absence. The Colts may be the story of the year right now no matter what happens.
Strengths - Luck, obviously, and Reggie Wayne lead an overachieving offense that compensates for a porous defense. You can say that coaching has been a strength as well. No team has been more ready to play week in and week out.
Weaknesses - The run defense has been poor all year and the defense in generally can give up some big plays. The offense has overcome a lot of the mistakes though.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not great, but don't be surprised to see them make a run at it.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
How they got in - By winning 7 of their last 8 games with a stout defense and Andy Dalton limiting his mistakes on offense. He was an interception machine at the start of the season, but cut down on the picks and started finding AJ Green on a more consistent basis. Benjarvis Green-Ellis also provided a huge spark in the running game over the last several weeks.
Strengths - Dalton, Green, and a very good defensive line.
Weaknesses - The receiving corp behind Green is suspect and the secondary isn't the greatest either.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Six seeds always seem to surprise and this one could do the same if they get past the Texans.
NFC
1. Atlanta Falcons
How they got in - By absolutely controlling the NFC South until it didn't matter and they could coast into the playoffs. Matt Ryan continued to show why he could be considered an elite quarterback, pulling off a couple of comeback wins, but he'll need to win in the playoffs now. The Falcons have a solid defense to compliment a potentially explosive offense.
Strengths - Ryan, Roddy White, and Julio Jones lead an offense that can score quickly, or hold onto the ball with Michael Turner running.
Weaknesses - The defense should be more stout, but it hasn't been consistent. Turner also hasn't shown a ton of consistency.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - In a stacked NFC? Not as good as the Broncos in the AFC, but Ryan will be trying to prove he can take his team to the promised land.
2. San Francisco
How they got in - By barely controlling a division that was theirs for the taking until it was realized they couldn't win in their own division consistently. They beat the elite teams, but struggled against lesser competition, especially the St. Louis Rams. They get a bye but will likely struggle in their opening game.
Strengths - A physical defense that can dominate the opponent if clicking and Jim Harbaugh seems to work magic with players such as Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick.
Weaknesses - Offensively, if they can't run the ball, things seem to fall apart for the 49ers. Kaepernick has wowed at times, and at other times looked lost on the field. Frank Gore needs to run hard for the 49ers to advance very far.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not very good from this corner. Let's call it watching them look bad at the worst possible times.
3. Green Bay Packers
How they got in - By going 9-2 after starting 2-3, giving them the NFC North title and a home game against the Vikings, who they split two meetings with during the regular season. In any other year, they might be the best in the NFC, which only shows how tough the conference was this year.
Strengths - This one's easy: Aaron Rodgers and his compliment of receivers who catch most anything that comes near them.
Weaknesses - Also easy, it's a defense that improved during the year, but still can spring a leak at inopportune times. The offensive line has also left something to be desired, making Rodgers performances even more impressive.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - I'd almost give them better odds than the Falcons if their defense was better, but pretty good as is. If Rodgers gets hot, the rest of the NFC can just go home.
4. Washington Redskins
How they got in - RGIII, RGIII, Alfred Morris, and a brilliant coaching job by Mike Shanahan. Oh, and a defense that found itself in the second half of the season. The Redskins went from 3-6 and out of the hunt to 10-6 and winners of the NFC East. Oh, and they beat the Dallas Cowboys to finish the job. Not too shabby.
Strengths - Even hurt, Robert Griffin III is better than most players on the field. If he's managed to heal up some, this is a very dangerous team. Morris came out of the sixth round to rush for more than 1600 yards, far-surpassing any expectations.
Weaknesses - The defense improved, but I'm still not sold on them getting it done in the playoffs.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not great, but I think they'll cause plenty of trouble for anyone they face, including another dark horse in the Seahawks.
5. Seattle Seahawks
How they got in - By being virtually unbeatable at home and picking up a couple wins on the road. Russell Wilson grew up a lot in his rookie season and with Marshawn Lynch running the ball, the defense was able to attack opponents at will, which they did with remarkable precision.
Strengths - The defense is without a doubt the strength of this team, but the offense is catching up quick. Can't overlook the coaching job done by Pete Carroll either.
Weaknesses - Road games. This team was 8-0 at home, but 3-5 on the road where they looked far-less aggressive. If this team had a better seeding, they'd be a virtual lock.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - As stated before, would be much higher if they were at home, as is, they'll give the Redskins all they can handle.
6. Minnesota Vikings
How they got in - By beating the Packers in their final game behind Adrian Peterson and a competent performance from Christian Ponder. They did just enough to get in, but I can't seem them making much noise this year.
Strengths - Peterson. His run at the rushing record was awe-inspiring, especially when a year ago he was recovering from surgery on his torn ACL.
Weaknesses - Ponder hasn't shown he can consistently perform at this level and while the defense can get after the quarterback, they aren't very good at stopping the run.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - The only slim-to-none team in the playoffs. Getting past the Packers in Lambeau is going to be very difficult.
And now we get to the picks!
Saturday
Cincinnati (10-6) at Houston (12-4) - 4:30pm NBC
At this point, have the Bengals grown enough to win in the first round? Have they figured out how to beat an elite team on the road? The Bengals haven't won a playoff game since the 80's and would look to be difficult to get that first win against the Texans, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Ah, but last year is just that: last year, and this year the Bengals are on a roll heading in. Andy Dalton hasn't always performed well this season, but his play of late has been much better. Benjarvis Green-Ellis isn't healthy, but the Bengals need him to run well against a good Texans defense.
Luckily for the Bengals, the Texans have been struggling going into the playoffs and defensively haven't been very good since Brian Cushing went down earlier in the year. JJ Watt has had an outstanding season, but the if the Bengals can control him, they have a great shot at winning this game. Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson have had great years, but if the Texans fall behind, they have trouble catching up.
Pick: Bengals 27, Texans 23
Minnesota (10-6) at Green Bay (11-5) - 8pm NBC
I know the Vikings just beat the Packers behind Adrian Peterson and his run at the rushing record (sorry, couldn't resist that one). He came up 9 yards short, but the Vikings got the win and a trip to the playoffs when a few weeks ago many wondered if they'd finish with a winning record. Christian Ponder won't wow you, but he's been good enough lately to make some plays and keep the Vikings in the game.
Aaron Rodgers is going to want to avenge that final game though. He was rattled by the pressure by the Vikings at times, but still led the Packers to 34 points and a chance at victory. Instead, he watched as the Vikings ran the ball down the field to kick the game winning field goal. This game though is at Lambeau Field, where the Packers don't lose often in the playoffs. The Packers will try to make an early statement.
Pick: Packers 31, Vikings 20
Sunday
Indianapolis (11-5) at Baltimore (10-6) - 1pm CBS
It's not often that a team finishes with a better record than its opponent and is an underdog, but that's just what the Colts are. They've also been a fantastic story from the remarkable turnaround from last year to Chuck Pagano's battle with leukemia. They were 1-3 when he left the team to be treated and all Bruce Arians did was go 9-3 in relief before Pagano returned for the final game. Andrew Luck was as good as advertised and the Colts pulled out several wins that they frankly should've lost.
Unfortunately, luck eventually runs out and if the Ravens can find some inspiration behind Ray Lewis declaring he's retiring after this season, it could be a long day for the Colts in Baltimore. The Ravens were good at home and that will be one advantage they have. Another is Ray Rice against a poor run defense and if Jim Caldwell has any sense, he'll have Joe Flacco hand the ball off repeatedly to Rice. Regardless, this is a game that the Ravens should win.
Pick: Ravens 27, Colts 23
Seattle (11-5) at Washington (10-6) - 4:30pm FOX
This is one of the most unlikely playoff matchups in recent memory. Neither team was expected to make the playoffs, just be better than the previous year. Now here we are, getting ready to watch the Seahawks face the Redskins. The Seahawks have played tremendous defense all year long and Russell Wilson has continued to improve throughout the season to the point that many believe he's a potential superstar. Their problem tends to be playing on the road, which is what they have to do in this matchup.
The Redskins were dead and buried at 3-6 earlier in the season. Then they went 7-0 to finish the season, watching Robert Griffin III grit his teeth through injury to lead the Redskins to the playoffs. Even sweeter was knocking out the Cowboys to win the division. Now RGIII gets his chance to shine on the playoff stage and I don't think he'll disappoint. Coupled with Alfred Morris, this is a dangerous team to face. The Seahawks defense may finally break this week.
Pick: Redskins 20, Seahawks 17
Season: 124-48-1
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
The Sports Mixer - It's week 12 already?
Getting the post up late last week cost me a valuable pick-win. It's a mistake that won't (probably will) happen again.
In any case, it was a good week for picks, even if I missed badly on the San Fran game, but really, who saw their back-up quarterback having that kind of performance against the Bears defense? I sure didn't. I expected a low-scoring affair, but give the 49ers some credit for playing exceptionally well.
I also doubt many expected the Colts-Patriots game to get so out of hand as quickly as it did, but Andrew Luck was due to have a clunker. Might as well be at the hands of Bill Belichick, who seems to befuddle rookie quarterbacks more often than not. Luck was also on the receiving end of some bad, uh, luck in the game as well.
I think the most surprising thing was watching Jacksonville take Houston into overtime, hanging with the Texans step for step until the end when Andre Johnson finally broke away with the winning score. A week after the defense was incredible against the Bears, it was broken against the Jaguars and their backup quarterback, Chad Henne.
What will this week bring? Stay tuned and find out.
Thursday
Houston (9-1) at Detroit (4-6) - 12:30pm CBS
The Texans survived a scare at home last week. Matt Schaub and the offense played a spectacular game, but how in the world do you allow the Jaguars to rack up 37 points of offense while being led by their backup quarterback? What does this mean for them going forward? It means they had a bad game and I expect the defense to refocus and get it together with Megatron looming.
The Lions, I thought they were coming around, but then they laid an egg against the Vikings before having to deal with a red-hot Aaron Rodgers last week. Now they get the Texans, the best team in the AFC. Yes, they're at home, but I doubt it will matter much. No one has stepped up to take the pressure off of Calvin Johnson so teams just continue to double team him without worry.
Pick: Texans 27, Lions 17
Washington (4-6) at Dallas (5-5) - 4:15pm FOX
The Redskins are coming off an impressive performance against the Eagles, which really isn't saying much giving that the Eagles are about as competitive as a pop warner team right now (and that's a disservice to pop warner teams everywhere). But you can't deny how stellar Robert Griffin III's performance was in that game. Now he goes up against a better defense, but one that has some holes in it as the Browns showed last week.
Meanwhile, just how good can you feel in Dallas coming off a 23-20 overtime win over the Browns? Tony Romo was sacked seven times and the run game was still non-existent, a problem against better teams. The Redskins aren't a better team, but they'll give the Cowboys a heck of a fight regardless. It'll be interesting to see DeMarcus Ware try and track down RGIII though.
Pick: Cowboys 24, Redskins 21
New England (7-3) at NY Jets (4-6) - 8:20 NBC
The Patriots continue to roll offensively and make just enough plays defensively to be taken seriously as a contender. They're averaging almost 36 points a game, which is bolstered by two 50 point explosions, a 45 point outing, and several 30+ point totals as well. In other words, Tom Brady hasn't lost a step, which is scary for most teams.
The Jets are one of the few that put up a fight this year, surprisingly enough, losing in overtime in week 7. Mark Sanchez didn't play a great game last week, but he was much more efficient as the Jets had a much easier time with the Rams than anticipated in this corner. This matchup figures to be another close one as the Jets always seem to bring their best against the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots 30, Jets 26
Sunday
Minnesota (6-4) at Chicago (7-3) - 1pm FOX
The Vikings righted the ship two weeks ago with a surprisingly easy victory over the Lions, then had a bye week to prepare for the Bears who are suddenly reeling. I'm still not sold on the Vikings being a playoff team however, and I think this game will be a reminder of that fact. Sure, Adrian Peterson could go off, allowing Christian Ponder the time to throw the ball, but the Bears may be slightly testy following their disappearing act last week.
Speaking of the Bears, that was a putrid performance on Monday Night Football. Defensively, they stunk. Offensively, they were worse. Who knew Jay Cutler meant that much to the offense? In all honesty, when you rely on your defense to give you at least one score a game, sometimes more, and that doesn't happen with Jason Campbell running the show instead of Cutler behind that horrific offensive line, what did you expect to happen? The Sports Mixer obviously did not take this into consideration last week and missed on the pick because of that. I just can't see the Vikings pulling this off though. Is anyone on the Bears defense angry?
Pick: Bears 17, Vikings 13
Oakland (3-7) at Cincinnati (5-5) - 1pm CBS
The Raiders are such a mess defensively. Two weeks ago they allowed the Ravens to score at will and hit the 50 point mark, this past week they improved by only allowing 38 points. Carson Palmer hasn't been terrible for the Raiders, but he hasn't shown anything to justify the picks the Raiders gave up to get him either. They've fared well against AFC North opponents in recent years though, so there's a glimmer of hope Raider Nation.
The Bengals looked lost for a while there, losing three games in a row before suddenly coming out and beating down the Giants two weeks ago. Then they got the Chiefs, who are the gift that keeps on giving when it comes to facing other teams. Now they're back in the wild card picture, one game behind the wounded Steelers. While not a gimme, this is a game they should win.
Pick: Bengals 24, Raiders 12
Buffalo (4-6) at Indianapolis (6-4) - 1pm CBS
The Bills finally received the type of performance from their defense that they expected all season long. Mario Williams was a beast on the defensive line and the Bills kept the Dolphins in check from start to finish, although the offense was very lackluster. Ryan Fitzpatrick goes from being Dan Marino one series to Ryan Leaf the next and that has been one of the more frustrating aspects to an otherwise explosive offense.
The Colts and Andrew Luck were bound to have a bad game and the Patriots handed it to them last week. Now we get to see how the rookie quarterback responds to a bad outing against a defense that has been vulnerable at times to good passing offenses. More importantly, can the Colts defense shore up the weakness shown last week? The Colts have a great shot at making the playoffs, but they can't have any more clunkers.
Pick: Colts 34, Bills 30
Denver (7-3) at Kansas City (1-9) - 1pm CBS
Is there any team hotter than the Broncos right now? After spotting the Chargers an early lead, Peyton Manning wrestled the lead back and led the Broncos to a 30-23 victory that solidified their hold on the division. Now comes the divisional doormats, the Chiefs, who can barely hold a lead, much less win a game anymore. A week after playing the Steelers to the bitter end, the Chiefs came out flat against the Bengals and never were in the game.
This game would normally be an upset alert, but the Chiefs have been so bad this year that I can't possibly consider them for that position until they string two semi-positive performances in a row. I don't think this will be that game. In fact, this game could get ugly before the first quarter is over, something I know Chiefs fans hope isn't the case.
Pick: Broncos 34, Chiefs 13
Seattle (6-4) at Miami (4-6) - 1pm FOX
The Seahawks have been the type of team when I pick them, they lose, when I don't, they win. Russel Wilson has been outstanding at home, but hasn't been so good on the road. What makes this game difficult to pick is how bad Miami has looked the last couple of weeks.
They were embarrassed two weeks ago by the Titans, then couldn't get anything going last week against a Bills defense that had underachieved most of the season. This is a big game for Ryan Tannehill and Reggie Bush. They need to get it together and give fans reason to believe that this team is heading in the right direction.
Pick: Seahawks 19, Dolphins 17
Atlanta (9-1) at Tampa Bay (6-4) - 1pm FOX
The Falcons have lived on the edge all season long and I don't see any reason this week will be different against the upstart Buccaneers. Matt Ryan has been good, but the team seems to constantly be playing from behind no matter who they play. Against lesser teams this has been good enough, but at some point it's going to bite them like it did against the Saints.
The Bucs are that scrappy team that no one wants to face right now. Josh Freeman seems to have the ability to play as poorly as possible for a good portion of the game, then suddenly become the best quarterback to ever play the game as he pulls the Bucs from the brink of defeat to win once again. I want to believe that the Bucs can pull the upset, but Ryan and the Falcons just have the poise needed to win close games.
Pick: Falcons 35, Buccaneers 31
Tennessee (4-6) at Jacksonville (1-9) - 1pm CBS
This is the type of game that favors the Titans, a team that has underwhelmed most of the season while attempting to develop Jake Locker. Chris Johnson at times has looked like the guy who ran for over 2,000 yards a few years back, but he's also had games where he's been unable to get anything going. The defense, with one notable exception against Miami, has been awful.
The Jaguars had an offensive explosion last week, but with how their season has gone, is it any surprise that they scored 37 points and lost? Blaine Gabbert is now gone for the season, which for some Jags fans is a sign of mercy. He'd shown little improvement in his second year and the Jags have just not had any consistency on offense. Sure Justin Blackmon has come on of late, but unless he has a moster final 6 games, he will be a disappointment.
Pick: Titans 31, Jaguars 28
Baltimore (8-2) at San Diego (4-6) - 4:05pm CBS
The Ravens won an ugly game against the Steelers last week, a game that featured 23 total points and a knockout of the Steelers' backup, Byron Leftwich. Now the Ravens travel to San Diego where the talented but flawed Chargers wait. Will the Ravens finally unleash Ray Rice and balance the offense? Or will they continue to try and insist on Joe Flacco beating everyone?
The Chargers are beyond lost at this point. Philip Rivers just doesn't seem to be the same guy this year and the team is constantly giving up chunks of yards and points. They can get a lead, but they can't put their opponent away and have yet to recover from their earlier meltdown when they led 24-0, only to lose to the Broncos by ten. This team is going nowhere fast.
Pick: Ravens 27, Chargers 17
San Francisco (7-2-1) at New Orleans (5-5) - 4:25pm FOX
Certainly this is one of the matchups of the week, the 49ers are coming off a stunning beatdown of the Chicago Bears, but now must travel to the Superdome to face the Saints, who have suddenly become the hottest team in the NFL. The 49ers showed a more explosive offense under Colin Kaepernick, who threw the ball well enough to cause their coach to say they might have to play both quarterbacks once Alex Smith is healthy.
The Saints are humming still on offense. Drew Brees and company just put up 38 points on the Raiders, which isn't much considering what the Raiders gave up the week before, but they only allowed 17 points, which is a vast improvement. The defense overall has been somewhat better since the return of Jonathan Vilma. Can they score on the 49ers and slow down the Kaepernick machine? I think so.
Pick: Saints 27, 49ers 24
St. Louis (3-6-1) at Arizona (4-6) - 4:25pm - FOX
The Rams have been such an up and down team. One week after playing the 49ers to a tie on the road, the Rams decide not to show up against the Jets in an uninspiring performance. Now they have to go to Arizona to face another underwhelming team, the Cardinals, who can't decide who's going to get beat up behind their offensive line.
The Cardinals might have the worst offensive line in the history of the NFL. It really doesn't matter who they put behind center; it's almost a guarantee that they're going to get knocked out of the game relatively quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if they were holding auditions by week 14 with all their quarterbacks on injured reserve.
Pick: Rams 17, Cardinals 13
Green Bay (7-3) at NY Giants (6-4) - 8:20 NBC
The Packers are finally playing like most thought they would at the start of the season, racking up points and victories as they attempt to take control of the NFC North. With the Bears dealing with injuries, this is the perfect time for the Packers to take control and move into first place.
The Giants should be angry. Two weeks ago they were 6-2 and being lauded as a top-tier team in the NFC. Now there are questions about how good they really are and if they can even make the playoffs. The Cowboys are now a game behind and a couple of weeks from now, it could be the opposite unless the Giants get it together. This is a tough week to do it in though.
Pick: Packers 34, Giants 20
Monday
Carolina (2-8) at Philadelphia (3-7) - 8:30pm ESPN
The Panthers could easily have won four or five games this season, but have given away a bunch of games due to bad decisions by both players and coaches. Now they travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles, who have become a virtual sideshow in the NFL circus. Nick Foles heard the cries of fans everywhere, and promptly played as poorly as one could play in place of Michael Vick. When the problem is a line that can't pass block, it doesn't matter who's back there. Now if they only had a good running back to take the load off their quarterbacks...Wait.
The Panthers could and should win this game. The Eagles have no business winning this game and are in desperate need of a leader to step up and say enough is enough. I don't see that happening, therefore I don't see a win.
Pick: Panthers 23, Eagles 12
Browns Game
Pittsburgh (6-4) at Cleveland (2-8) - 1pm CBS
The Steelers are coming off a tough loss and are in a difficult spot; trying to win football games with Charlie Batch now that both Ben Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich are out with injuries. This is one banged up team, but they probably feel solace in that they're facing the Browns, the most dysfunctional team in the NFL at this point. Still, without their top offensive and defensive players, it's going to be hard to come by a win against a team that has fought to the bitter end most weeks.
The Browns are another team that could easily have five or six wins at this point. Instead, they are 2-8 and facing abundant questions about their future in many areas. A win this week would soothe a lot of fans feelings, but it would have to be a convincing win. Trent Richardson needs to stop dancing and run through the hole. Brandon Weeden needs to cut down the mistakes and rediscover the deep ball that has eluded him of late. The defense just needs to stop people. They can do it, but they have to put forth 60 minutes of effort for once.
Pick: Browns 27, Steelers 19
Last week: 11-2
Overall: 81-29-1
In any case, it was a good week for picks, even if I missed badly on the San Fran game, but really, who saw their back-up quarterback having that kind of performance against the Bears defense? I sure didn't. I expected a low-scoring affair, but give the 49ers some credit for playing exceptionally well.
I also doubt many expected the Colts-Patriots game to get so out of hand as quickly as it did, but Andrew Luck was due to have a clunker. Might as well be at the hands of Bill Belichick, who seems to befuddle rookie quarterbacks more often than not. Luck was also on the receiving end of some bad, uh, luck in the game as well.
I think the most surprising thing was watching Jacksonville take Houston into overtime, hanging with the Texans step for step until the end when Andre Johnson finally broke away with the winning score. A week after the defense was incredible against the Bears, it was broken against the Jaguars and their backup quarterback, Chad Henne.
What will this week bring? Stay tuned and find out.
Thursday
Houston (9-1) at Detroit (4-6) - 12:30pm CBS
The Texans survived a scare at home last week. Matt Schaub and the offense played a spectacular game, but how in the world do you allow the Jaguars to rack up 37 points of offense while being led by their backup quarterback? What does this mean for them going forward? It means they had a bad game and I expect the defense to refocus and get it together with Megatron looming.
The Lions, I thought they were coming around, but then they laid an egg against the Vikings before having to deal with a red-hot Aaron Rodgers last week. Now they get the Texans, the best team in the AFC. Yes, they're at home, but I doubt it will matter much. No one has stepped up to take the pressure off of Calvin Johnson so teams just continue to double team him without worry.
Pick: Texans 27, Lions 17
Washington (4-6) at Dallas (5-5) - 4:15pm FOX
The Redskins are coming off an impressive performance against the Eagles, which really isn't saying much giving that the Eagles are about as competitive as a pop warner team right now (and that's a disservice to pop warner teams everywhere). But you can't deny how stellar Robert Griffin III's performance was in that game. Now he goes up against a better defense, but one that has some holes in it as the Browns showed last week.
Meanwhile, just how good can you feel in Dallas coming off a 23-20 overtime win over the Browns? Tony Romo was sacked seven times and the run game was still non-existent, a problem against better teams. The Redskins aren't a better team, but they'll give the Cowboys a heck of a fight regardless. It'll be interesting to see DeMarcus Ware try and track down RGIII though.
Pick: Cowboys 24, Redskins 21
New England (7-3) at NY Jets (4-6) - 8:20 NBC
The Patriots continue to roll offensively and make just enough plays defensively to be taken seriously as a contender. They're averaging almost 36 points a game, which is bolstered by two 50 point explosions, a 45 point outing, and several 30+ point totals as well. In other words, Tom Brady hasn't lost a step, which is scary for most teams.
The Jets are one of the few that put up a fight this year, surprisingly enough, losing in overtime in week 7. Mark Sanchez didn't play a great game last week, but he was much more efficient as the Jets had a much easier time with the Rams than anticipated in this corner. This matchup figures to be another close one as the Jets always seem to bring their best against the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots 30, Jets 26
Sunday
Minnesota (6-4) at Chicago (7-3) - 1pm FOX
The Vikings righted the ship two weeks ago with a surprisingly easy victory over the Lions, then had a bye week to prepare for the Bears who are suddenly reeling. I'm still not sold on the Vikings being a playoff team however, and I think this game will be a reminder of that fact. Sure, Adrian Peterson could go off, allowing Christian Ponder the time to throw the ball, but the Bears may be slightly testy following their disappearing act last week.
Speaking of the Bears, that was a putrid performance on Monday Night Football. Defensively, they stunk. Offensively, they were worse. Who knew Jay Cutler meant that much to the offense? In all honesty, when you rely on your defense to give you at least one score a game, sometimes more, and that doesn't happen with Jason Campbell running the show instead of Cutler behind that horrific offensive line, what did you expect to happen? The Sports Mixer obviously did not take this into consideration last week and missed on the pick because of that. I just can't see the Vikings pulling this off though. Is anyone on the Bears defense angry?
Pick: Bears 17, Vikings 13
Oakland (3-7) at Cincinnati (5-5) - 1pm CBS
The Raiders are such a mess defensively. Two weeks ago they allowed the Ravens to score at will and hit the 50 point mark, this past week they improved by only allowing 38 points. Carson Palmer hasn't been terrible for the Raiders, but he hasn't shown anything to justify the picks the Raiders gave up to get him either. They've fared well against AFC North opponents in recent years though, so there's a glimmer of hope Raider Nation.
The Bengals looked lost for a while there, losing three games in a row before suddenly coming out and beating down the Giants two weeks ago. Then they got the Chiefs, who are the gift that keeps on giving when it comes to facing other teams. Now they're back in the wild card picture, one game behind the wounded Steelers. While not a gimme, this is a game they should win.
Pick: Bengals 24, Raiders 12
Buffalo (4-6) at Indianapolis (6-4) - 1pm CBS
The Bills finally received the type of performance from their defense that they expected all season long. Mario Williams was a beast on the defensive line and the Bills kept the Dolphins in check from start to finish, although the offense was very lackluster. Ryan Fitzpatrick goes from being Dan Marino one series to Ryan Leaf the next and that has been one of the more frustrating aspects to an otherwise explosive offense.
The Colts and Andrew Luck were bound to have a bad game and the Patriots handed it to them last week. Now we get to see how the rookie quarterback responds to a bad outing against a defense that has been vulnerable at times to good passing offenses. More importantly, can the Colts defense shore up the weakness shown last week? The Colts have a great shot at making the playoffs, but they can't have any more clunkers.
Pick: Colts 34, Bills 30
Denver (7-3) at Kansas City (1-9) - 1pm CBS
Is there any team hotter than the Broncos right now? After spotting the Chargers an early lead, Peyton Manning wrestled the lead back and led the Broncos to a 30-23 victory that solidified their hold on the division. Now comes the divisional doormats, the Chiefs, who can barely hold a lead, much less win a game anymore. A week after playing the Steelers to the bitter end, the Chiefs came out flat against the Bengals and never were in the game.
This game would normally be an upset alert, but the Chiefs have been so bad this year that I can't possibly consider them for that position until they string two semi-positive performances in a row. I don't think this will be that game. In fact, this game could get ugly before the first quarter is over, something I know Chiefs fans hope isn't the case.
Pick: Broncos 34, Chiefs 13
Seattle (6-4) at Miami (4-6) - 1pm FOX
The Seahawks have been the type of team when I pick them, they lose, when I don't, they win. Russel Wilson has been outstanding at home, but hasn't been so good on the road. What makes this game difficult to pick is how bad Miami has looked the last couple of weeks.
They were embarrassed two weeks ago by the Titans, then couldn't get anything going last week against a Bills defense that had underachieved most of the season. This is a big game for Ryan Tannehill and Reggie Bush. They need to get it together and give fans reason to believe that this team is heading in the right direction.
Pick: Seahawks 19, Dolphins 17
Atlanta (9-1) at Tampa Bay (6-4) - 1pm FOX
The Falcons have lived on the edge all season long and I don't see any reason this week will be different against the upstart Buccaneers. Matt Ryan has been good, but the team seems to constantly be playing from behind no matter who they play. Against lesser teams this has been good enough, but at some point it's going to bite them like it did against the Saints.
The Bucs are that scrappy team that no one wants to face right now. Josh Freeman seems to have the ability to play as poorly as possible for a good portion of the game, then suddenly become the best quarterback to ever play the game as he pulls the Bucs from the brink of defeat to win once again. I want to believe that the Bucs can pull the upset, but Ryan and the Falcons just have the poise needed to win close games.
Pick: Falcons 35, Buccaneers 31
Tennessee (4-6) at Jacksonville (1-9) - 1pm CBS
This is the type of game that favors the Titans, a team that has underwhelmed most of the season while attempting to develop Jake Locker. Chris Johnson at times has looked like the guy who ran for over 2,000 yards a few years back, but he's also had games where he's been unable to get anything going. The defense, with one notable exception against Miami, has been awful.
The Jaguars had an offensive explosion last week, but with how their season has gone, is it any surprise that they scored 37 points and lost? Blaine Gabbert is now gone for the season, which for some Jags fans is a sign of mercy. He'd shown little improvement in his second year and the Jags have just not had any consistency on offense. Sure Justin Blackmon has come on of late, but unless he has a moster final 6 games, he will be a disappointment.
Pick: Titans 31, Jaguars 28
Baltimore (8-2) at San Diego (4-6) - 4:05pm CBS
The Ravens won an ugly game against the Steelers last week, a game that featured 23 total points and a knockout of the Steelers' backup, Byron Leftwich. Now the Ravens travel to San Diego where the talented but flawed Chargers wait. Will the Ravens finally unleash Ray Rice and balance the offense? Or will they continue to try and insist on Joe Flacco beating everyone?
The Chargers are beyond lost at this point. Philip Rivers just doesn't seem to be the same guy this year and the team is constantly giving up chunks of yards and points. They can get a lead, but they can't put their opponent away and have yet to recover from their earlier meltdown when they led 24-0, only to lose to the Broncos by ten. This team is going nowhere fast.
Pick: Ravens 27, Chargers 17
San Francisco (7-2-1) at New Orleans (5-5) - 4:25pm FOX
Certainly this is one of the matchups of the week, the 49ers are coming off a stunning beatdown of the Chicago Bears, but now must travel to the Superdome to face the Saints, who have suddenly become the hottest team in the NFL. The 49ers showed a more explosive offense under Colin Kaepernick, who threw the ball well enough to cause their coach to say they might have to play both quarterbacks once Alex Smith is healthy.
The Saints are humming still on offense. Drew Brees and company just put up 38 points on the Raiders, which isn't much considering what the Raiders gave up the week before, but they only allowed 17 points, which is a vast improvement. The defense overall has been somewhat better since the return of Jonathan Vilma. Can they score on the 49ers and slow down the Kaepernick machine? I think so.
Pick: Saints 27, 49ers 24
St. Louis (3-6-1) at Arizona (4-6) - 4:25pm - FOX
The Rams have been such an up and down team. One week after playing the 49ers to a tie on the road, the Rams decide not to show up against the Jets in an uninspiring performance. Now they have to go to Arizona to face another underwhelming team, the Cardinals, who can't decide who's going to get beat up behind their offensive line.
The Cardinals might have the worst offensive line in the history of the NFL. It really doesn't matter who they put behind center; it's almost a guarantee that they're going to get knocked out of the game relatively quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if they were holding auditions by week 14 with all their quarterbacks on injured reserve.
Pick: Rams 17, Cardinals 13
Green Bay (7-3) at NY Giants (6-4) - 8:20 NBC
The Packers are finally playing like most thought they would at the start of the season, racking up points and victories as they attempt to take control of the NFC North. With the Bears dealing with injuries, this is the perfect time for the Packers to take control and move into first place.
The Giants should be angry. Two weeks ago they were 6-2 and being lauded as a top-tier team in the NFC. Now there are questions about how good they really are and if they can even make the playoffs. The Cowboys are now a game behind and a couple of weeks from now, it could be the opposite unless the Giants get it together. This is a tough week to do it in though.
Pick: Packers 34, Giants 20
Monday
Carolina (2-8) at Philadelphia (3-7) - 8:30pm ESPN
The Panthers could easily have won four or five games this season, but have given away a bunch of games due to bad decisions by both players and coaches. Now they travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles, who have become a virtual sideshow in the NFL circus. Nick Foles heard the cries of fans everywhere, and promptly played as poorly as one could play in place of Michael Vick. When the problem is a line that can't pass block, it doesn't matter who's back there. Now if they only had a good running back to take the load off their quarterbacks...Wait.
The Panthers could and should win this game. The Eagles have no business winning this game and are in desperate need of a leader to step up and say enough is enough. I don't see that happening, therefore I don't see a win.
Pick: Panthers 23, Eagles 12
Browns Game
Pittsburgh (6-4) at Cleveland (2-8) - 1pm CBS
The Steelers are coming off a tough loss and are in a difficult spot; trying to win football games with Charlie Batch now that both Ben Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich are out with injuries. This is one banged up team, but they probably feel solace in that they're facing the Browns, the most dysfunctional team in the NFL at this point. Still, without their top offensive and defensive players, it's going to be hard to come by a win against a team that has fought to the bitter end most weeks.
The Browns are another team that could easily have five or six wins at this point. Instead, they are 2-8 and facing abundant questions about their future in many areas. A win this week would soothe a lot of fans feelings, but it would have to be a convincing win. Trent Richardson needs to stop dancing and run through the hole. Brandon Weeden needs to cut down the mistakes and rediscover the deep ball that has eluded him of late. The defense just needs to stop people. They can do it, but they have to put forth 60 minutes of effort for once.
Pick: Browns 27, Steelers 19
Last week: 11-2
Overall: 81-29-1
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