Showing posts with label broncos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label broncos. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

The Sports Mixer - Divisional Playoff Picks

The playoffs are the most difficult picks to make.  Teams that appear to be red-hot often cool dramatically when the playoffs start as the pressure ramps the intensity of things up significantly.  Teams that were dominant in the regular season wilt under all the pressure the playoffs bring.

For example, the Cincinnati Bengals were on a roll heading into the playoffs while the Houston Texans were faltering.  The Texans didn't exactly roll offensively, but their defense did a number on the Bengals and helped them cruise to victory.  Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts had been one of the best stories in recent memory, but the Baltimore Ravens turned them to dust as Ray Lewis played his final home game in his long career.

The Minnesota Vikings had outlasted the Green Bay Packers in the regular season finale as Adrian Peterson ran over and through Packers' defenders as if they weren't there, and while he still racked up some good numbers, with Christian Ponder sidelined the Vikings had no offensive answer for the Packers and lost.  Meanwhile the Seattle Seahawks spotted the Washington Redskins 14 points before dominating defensively.  The injury to Robert Griffin III made things easier, but they still dominated a previously good running game.

The performance makes their upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons much more difficult to predict.  Additionally, teams coming off the bye haven't been as sharp in recent years so do you compensate for that factor?  Particularly challenging is the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers.  The 49ers have been good against elite competition this year, but also can potentially falter when least expected.  The Packers can put up numbers, but can the offensive line protect Aaron Rodgers against a very good pass-rush?

Let's find out, shall we?

Saturday

Baltimore (10-6) at Denver (13-3) - 4:30pm CBS

The Ravens needed that first win as much as any team entering the playoffs having lost three of their final four to back into the third seed.  Their reward was a very green Colts team that just wasn't able to overcome the return of Ray Lewis to a maligned defensive unit.  The Ravens dominated the Colts on both sides of the ball and seemed like a different team.  The Colts overachieved all season long, there's no doubt about that, but the Ravens removed the doubt early on.  Now they travel to Denver where they lost by 17 points earlier in the season.  Additionally, Peyton Manning has a personal nine game winning streak going against the Ravens.  Once again, the odds are stacked against the Ravens and I have a hard time seeing them overcome them.

The Broncos ended the season on fire, having won eleven straight games and thoroughly dominating opponents by the last quarter of the season.  Peyton Manning continues to defy the odds in that he doesn't look like a guy coming off multiple neck surgeries and one missed season.  He has complete control of the Denver offense and runs it at a high tempo to keep defensives on their heels.  Not to be outdone, the Broncos' defense has shined led by Von Miller.  Finally, this game being in Denver tilts things in the favor of the Broncos.

Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 23

Green Bay (11-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1) - 8pm FOX

The Packers exacted revenge against the Vikings for knocking them out of the second seed with their win last week.  Defensively they were as good as they'd been all year, although Adrian Peterson still picked up 99 yards, it was a dramatic improvement over the previous two meetings.  It helped that Christian Ponder was out, leaving the keys to the offense in the hands of Joe Webb, who had a very tough time throwing the ball.  On the other side, the Packers offensive line held up long enough for Aaron Rodgers to get the ball downfield and the running game was just good enough to help with play-action.

The 49ers have one advantage in this game, and it's their defense which excels at getting pressure on the quarterback.  Combine that against a shaky offensive line on Green Bay and you have the opportunity for a big game for the defensive line.  Colin Kaepernick has been up and down, but he possesses a far-better arm that Webb and if Frank Gore is running hard, the 49ers can control the game and keep Rodgers off the field.  That's going to be the biggest key in this game.  If they can pressure Rodgers and control the ball, the 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.

Pick: 49ers 23, Packers 20

Sunday

Seattle (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3) - 1pm FOX

This was the toughest game to pick.  The Seahawks have been on some kind of roll for several weeks now, but I was betting on RGIII having a big game in his postseason debut.  Instead, the Seahawks' defense swarmed the Redskins offense and made life difficult.  The Seahawks offense meanwhile was efficient behind Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, who seems to shine brightest in the playoffs (remember his rumbling touchdown against the Saints a couple years back?).  They're starting to play as well on the road as they have at home, which is big since they won't get a home game this postseason.  They get to go to Atlanta this week and take on one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.

The Falcons are a team that I worry about coming off the bye.  Until late in the season, they had struggled at times, yet found ways to win, especially against inferior opponents.  Seattle is not inferior and their pass defense is very good, which will challenge Matt Ryan.  Luckily, he has Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez to throw passes to, which offsets a relatively weak running game.  Ryan can be flustered and has yet to win a playoff game, so this is a big test for him in his march towards elite status.  He's flamed out too many times in the playoffs, so it's time for him to step up.  I just don't know if he can overcome the roll the Seahawks have been on.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17

Houston (12-4) at New England (12-4) - 4:30pm CBS

This is potentially the best matchup of the weekend as the Texans look to avenge one of the worst losses for them in the regular season, a 42-17 blowout at the hands of the Patriots in Foxboro.  Matt Schaub made a solid, if unspectacular playoff debut last week against a good Bengals defense, but his play was sporadic enough to leave question marks about his performance.  Arian Foster has been carrying the Texans for two years though, and if he can continue to run well, the Texans will have a chance.  They can't fall behind early again like they did last time or it'll be a long evening in New England.

The Patriots seem as ready as they've ever been for a long playoff run.  After some early season stumbles and questions about how much Tom Brady has left in the tank, the Patriots went on a tear, consistently beating good teams badly, their only stumble being against the 49ers, and even then they nearly pulled off an incredible comeback.  Bill Belichick will have this team ready to go and it could be a long day again for the Texans.

Pick: Patriots 34, Texans 24

Last week: 2-2

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Joined in progress - The Sports Mixer game blog

I was going to do a live blog during the Sunday night game, but unfortunately the sight of the Steelers made me queasy and I had to let my stomach settle first.

Just kidding.

I was doing laundry and didn't get to sit down with my laptop until 12:00 left in the third quarter.

So far, Peyton Manning has looked good, particularly in the no-huddle.  Unfortunately, Ben Roethlisberger is looking good as well.

It's 10-7 Pittsburgh as we join the game in progress.

Time notations are time left in the current quarter.

3rd Quarter

10:40 - Roethlisberger dumps off to Isaac Redman, who juggles it before finally corraling it.

10:15 - He dives!  And he looks short, at least according to the ugly yellow line that is draped across the field inaccurately most of the time, so now it's 4th and inches.

10:11 - Well that was a fortunate spot by the side judge.  On replay he never makes it to the yellow line, but the refs blow another call.

9:32 - Another false start on the Steelers.  By my count, that's now 27 on the Steelers.

8:26 - Apparently I'm the only person who hears the whistle blowing for another false start, but the play carries on and then the Referee goofs on the call, saying the penalty was declined even though it was a deadball foul.  Yeah, they aren't doing so hot.

8:03 - I really think players who hold out should be suspended for the first game.  Just saying, Mike Wallace.

7:30 - I'm fairly certain Denver missed the memo about the Steelers line being a mess.  They aren't getting near Roethlisberger right now.  Easy first down.

6:55 - Hey, Mike Adams.  We miss you here.  Trust me.  Nice play there.  Meanwhile, Peyton Manning is certain he's never seeing the field again in this game.  This drive is taking forever.

6:40 - Oh look, lost helmet.  They have chin straps, right?

6:09 - Almost had him.  Browns fans are familiar with Ben just barely getting rid of the ball as the pressure gets there.  Field goal try time.

6:05 - Steelers 13, Broncos 7 as the near-nine minute drive finally ends.

That drive was the epitome of a Steelers drive though.  They ran the ball a lot, Roethlisberger completed passes when he needed to, and third and long didn't slow them down one bit, at least until the end when the Broncos rush finally got there.  Now we'll see if Manning can resume his mastery.

5:59 - First pass of the second half for Manning is right on the money, and back to no-huddle we go.

5:32 - That was quick...and very easy.  Second play is a short pass left on a hot read to Demaryius Thomas, and 70 yards later it's 14-13 Broncos.  Wow.  Someone might want to inform the Steelers that Manning is the quarterback and blitzing ends badly.

In short, it took the Steelers almost nine minutes to put up a field and Manning less than a minute, after sitting for 57 minutes total, to put up a touchdown.  Oh, and it's his 400th career touchdown.

5:29 - I'm pretty sure the kickers are competing to see who can get a ball in the stands first.  They are booming these kickoffs right now.

That may have been the creepiest Old Spice commercial ever.  Sometimes I wonder where these ideas come from.  The Nissan commercial afterwards wasn't much better.  Personally, if my gas station attendant knew me like that I'd be using a different company.

5:25 - That was a dangerous throw by Ben.  Triple coverage there buddy.

5:18 - That was almost as dangerous.  Tracy Porter had his hands on that one.  Ben might want to reconsider where he's throwing.

5:12 - Dropped pass on a helmet-to-helmet hit.  I'm not a big proponent of the penalties that get called, but that was a pretty blatant hit there.  Meanwhile, the refs had trouble spotting the ball after the possession started on the 20.  Uh, 15+20 is what now?

5:03 - Little dump-off loses 2 yards.  Chris Rainey should've just dropped that one.

4:28 - Roethlisberger finally goes down.  I think the Steelers lineman were on a coffee break.  The entire middle brokedown.

3:48 - God I hate Steelers fans.  Meanwhile, the Broncos apparently decided not to include Heath Miller in their gameplan.  Fourth time he's been wide open now and 3 and 18 is converted.

3:10 - Denver must really like playing on defense right now.  Short gain just got longer thanks to a facemask penalty.  Tiime of possession is terribly in favor of Pittsburgh right now.  Yikes.  At least Manning won't be tired.  If he sees the field again.

2:41 - Jonathan Dwyer is a tough guy to bring down.  He just bounced off 4 guys, 3 coaches, and several cheerleaders to pick up a first down.

2:05 - Um, Ben?  Your receiver was about 10 yards closer to you.

1:35 - I love when coaches cover their faces with paper while speaking.  Because every team makes sure to hire lip readers.

1:15 - Imagine that, a third and seven converted because Miller is wide open.  Again.  Linebackers?  Where are you?

0:24 - Dwyer is just tough.  He shrugged off Adams like he wasn't there.  However, where's the containment on the outside?  Meanwhile, replay just showed Dwyer's knee was down as he crossed the 2 yard line.  Refs?  Did you see that?  Probably not.  Luckily, scoring plays are reviewed and the right call is made.

That marks the end of the quarter.  In the third quarter, the Broncos had the ball for all of 36 seconds, the Steelers the other 14:24, yet the Broncos lead 14-13 after three quarters.  Just goes to show you.

4th Quarter

14:56 - Nice play by Von Miller to stuff the middle and drop Redman for a loss.  Can Pittsburgh punch it in?

14:11 - Yes they can.  Mike Wallace catches the pass.  Hate Ben, but that was a perfect throw.

God, I just said that.  Punch me.

Oh look, going for two.  Fail.  19-14 your score.

On a side note, how do Fox and NBC both have America's game of the week?

13:41 - Well at least this possession will be longer than two plays.  Two runs and a first down since the safeties are playing deep.

13:04 - Well Thomas just stiff-armed Troy like he was a rag doll.  Wow.

12:15 - Manning makes the position look so easy.  He faked a handoff then threw a dart to Eric Decker.

11:45 - Another laser, this time to Stokely.  He's running no-huddle like he's still in Indy.

11:20 - That was a bit high.  There was also a ton of grabbing going on between the receiver and defensive back.

11:10 - Great effort by Jacob Tamme to get that first down.  The throw was low, but he got up and fought to get past the marker when most would've just rolled out of bounds.

10:35 - He's just picking them apart right now.  Decker almost fumbled though.

9:34 - What a mess.  The Broncos ran a play while Mike Tomlin threw the challenge flag on the field, so the refs are going to review whether there was a fumble or not.  Sadly, there wasn't so the Steelers should lose the challenge and timeout.  God I hate the Steelers sometimes.  This replay isn't even close.  He doesn't lose the ball til well after his knee hits, his elbow hits, and someone throws confetti in the air.

9:23 - Tamme with the catch, although I'm sure this is going to get reviewed.  He crossed the goal line, started to fall, and the ball went flying out of his hands, but it appears he had control.  Now Denver going for two.  They convert so it's 22-19 now in favor of the Broncos.

9:23 - He thought about bringing that one out from nine yards deep, didn't he?  Meanwhile they're pointing out how Manning changed the play while the refs were trying to figure out what was going on.

9:16 - Rainy just turned a near seven yard loss into a six yard gain. Nice cutbacks.

8:35 - Nice job by Porter to break-up a long pass attempt to Wallace.  Roethlisberger got hit again too.  Big third down coming since Denver keeps giving up big plays on third down.

8:29 - Hey! They covered Heath Miller!  Wallace was wide open down the field, but Ben was under so much pressure he never saw it.  Punting time.

7:49 - Too much dancing by McGahee.  He had a hole to the left, but missed it.

6:54 - Lance Ball with a nice run on first down.  Manning is looking like he didn't miss a game, much less a season.

5:45 - What a pretty throw that was to Tamme.  He lofted that ball perfectly.  After several runs, he hits you with that.  Just not fair.

5:20 - Not a big gain, but effective run.  Manning is working quickly.

4:38 - Manning is changing the play, then waiting for the Steelers to set up, then changing it again.  Eight yards later, it's third and two and the game is on again.

3:57 - That's the most annoying thing a quarterback can do.  The safeties kept running up when Manning would go under center, so he'd back off and look at them.  They'd start backing up and he'd go back under center.  The safeties came up again, so he backed off again, this time calling a timeout.

3:51 - Incomplete pass, but a flag is thrown.  Pass Interference on the Steelers.  That one hurts.  The defensive back never turned around to find the ball.

3:44 - McGahee is stood up, but the clock is ticking on the Steelers.  Oh, and the Steelers are down to two timeouts.

3:07 - That one was too high, but he made it so no one could catch that ball.

3:03 - Back shoulder throw to Decker, but he can't haul it in.  That was a catchable ball.  Broncos have to settle for a field goal.  25-19 is the score.  A touchdown can win it with 3 minutes to go.

2:52 - How did Roethlisberger get that one off?  Bad snap, pressure coming, and he puts it right on the money for a big gain?  I just despise the guy sometimes.

2:10 - Throwaway since no one was open.  I'm pretty sure he double-pumped at least twice on that play.  One day, that ball is going to pop out of his hand.  I hope.

2:04 - Porter steps in front of the pass and he's going the other way for a pick-six.  That'll put the game away.  He just jumped the route and 43 yards later, it's a touchdown.  Now Peyton comes running in to try for two.  Well, after the two minute warning.  Okay, so the refs messed that up too.  Sheesh.  In the meantime, the conversion fails.  Yeah, the refs are going to force the NFL to get the regular refs back soon.  Like tomorrow.  Please.

1:58 - Well, that kickoff almost made it in the stands.  Now back to our regularly scheduled football game.

1:54 - Von Miller just blew by the offensive lineman to get the sack.  Sorry Mike Adams.  I love the Buckeyes, but you blew that one.

1:22 - Sanders just got knocked around like a ping-pong ball.  Third and five now.

0:57 - Miller gets him again.  It looks like Ben just gave up on the play from the get go.  He just ducked down and disappeared in a mass of jerseys.  Nice tribute to Tim Tebow by Miller by the way.  Why are the Steelers taking a timeout?

0:47 - Oh, to give the Broncos a second-wind to sack Ben for the third time on this possession.  Kneel down time.

Final thoughts

Well, the Steelers couldn't run the ball, couldn't stop Peyton Manning, gave up some big chunks of yardage on the ground, and have a horrible offensive line.

They'll still win 10 games though.

The Broncos look good tonight, but we'll see how the defense holds up.  They were getting gashed early in the game.  Manning looks like he didn't miss a day though.  That's going to get them several wins alone.

Final: Broncos 31, Steelers 19.