Before I get into my picks for the championship round of the playoffs, let me talk about the two predominant sports stories making the rounds over the last 24 hours.
No, this isn't me stalling because I still haven't decided on who to pick (although that may play a small role in opening with these stories rather than finishing the post with them), but rather me wanting to not talk about these things by talking about them.
Confused?
Good.
The Manti Te'o is perhaps the most annoying story to come out in a long while. Now, I had the opportunity to watch the BCS National Championship game in which Te'o was abused repeatedly by the Alabama offense and appeared to be at least a step slower than the opposing players. As I watched, I tried to figure out how *that* guy ended up finishing second in Heisman voting and how it was as close as it was. He just didn't seem like he belonged on the field, much like the rest of his teammates.
Now the feel-good story about the deaths of his grandmother and girlfriend motivating his play is turning out to be half-true with the revelation that his alleged girlfriend didn't exist. Depending on what the truth ends up being, he was either the victim of a particularly cruel hoax, or played a role in the scam in hopes of increasing his public persona. Of course, one former teammate has already come out and said that a lot of his teammates were skeptical of the girlfriend story, while others are standing up for him (which is another set of issues; I know news outlets are desperate for information and some want attention so badly, but if you were a teammate of someone, why speak out against him?).
Either way, I could care less. If it was a hoax he didn't know about shame on them for doing this to a trusting person. Let him recover and stop talking about it. If he was in on it, stop talking about it! All you're doing is giving him more of the attention he's seeking.
While there are legitimate questions about whether this hurts his draft stock, to me the damage was done in the BCS game when he was abused by the Alabama offense thoroughly. That game, not this worthless story, is what makes me doubt if he's an NFL-caliber player. If he had come up big on the biggest stage, I'd be saying he's a top-five pick. That game leads me to believe anything about the third round is a reach now.
The other story is Chip Kelly going to the Philadelphia Eagles a week after he decided he was going to stay at Oregon. Some, notably those in the Cleveland media, believe the Cleveland Browns should feel scorned or be bothered by this. After all, it is Joe Banner's former team signing Kelly when it was clear the Browns were after him. Me? I don't think they should feel scorned, nor should any fan. They shouldn't be bothered by this at all.
If Kelly wanted to coach the Browns, he'd already have his coaching staff in place and be talking about players to bring in. Instead, it's Rob Chudzinski that's setting up his coaching staff and I'm fine with that. He wants to coach here, he helped Cam Newton put up some impressive numbers at Carolina, and he was the offensive coordinator the last time the Browns had any semblance of a real offense in town. Give him a chance.
But feel spurned by Kelly? The guy may end up being a great coach. You don't know that yet. But I'm not comfortable with a guy who left the Tamba Bay Buccaneers hanging last year, then flirted with the Browns, Bill, and Eagles before deciding he was staying at Oregon, then two days after visiting a recruit, leaves the Ducks to coach the Eagles.
I'm good on that.
Phew.
Now that that's out of the way, let's talk about Championship Sunday, shall we?
San Francisco at Atlanta - 3pm FOX
The 49ers saw one of the most amazing postseason performances put on in recent memory by Colin Kaepernick. He not only threw the ball well, he ran for 181 yards as he did whatever he wanted against the Packers' defense, which really isn't saying much given that the Packers never ONCE adjusted to what the 49ers were doing. Kaepernick has really been remarkable though. He's managed to turn Michael Crabtree into a legitimate receiving threat after appearing to be a semi-bust with Alex Smith as quarterback. That defense isn't performing as well though and that's a concern going against an offense that has a good quarterback, outstanding receivers, a legend at tight end, and a rejuvenated running back. Sure, some of the 31 points given up were just because that was the pace of the game, but the pass rush hasn't been there of late.
The Falcons appeared to be cruising against the Seahawks. They had a 20-0 lead at halftime, and then kept the lead at 20 points at 27-7 after a Seahawks score. It was midway through the third quarter and it was just a formality, right? Well, the Seahawks should've pulled out the victory. They scored 21 unanswered points to take a 28-27 lead with 31 seconds left. 31 seconds. That's what, three or four plays if you're lucky, right? Well, three plays later, Matt Bryant was kicking the game-winning field goal through the uprights from 49 yards out. What should be noted is that Pete Carroll had iced the kicker with a timeout, so of course he missed that kick and was given a second chance, which he used to adjust and make the kick. You can't discount the two throws Matt Ryan made with little time to go. 22 yards on the first one, 19 on the second one, and boom the Falcons were in range to win the game. Ryan has been unflappable this year in those situations, leading the Falcons to multiple wins when they should've lost.
I just don't know which way to go with this one; do I look at the dominant offensive performance of Kaepernick and go with the 49ers? Do I go with the never say die mentality brought by Ryan? I suppose in this case, the tie goes to the home team.
Pick: Falcons 31, 49ers 27
Baltimore at New England - 6:30pm CBS
The Ravens surprised everyone by winning against the Broncos in double-overtime. It took a miracle throw from Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones to do, but they did it and the Ray Lewis retirement tour gets to make at least one more stop, this time in New England where they won earlier this season. You can't deny the Ravens played inspired, never quit, and played until the final kick went through the uprights, but they needed that miracle throw to even force overtime in the first place. Fact is, the defense was getting gashed by Peyton Manning and the Broncos most of the afternoon, then once the offense rescued them, stood tall in overtime. They'll need a much stronger showing against the Patriots, who are completely clicking on all cyclinders.
The Patriots aren't a strong defensive team, but it seems like every week they're up big before their opponent even knows what hit them and for the second time this season, they were whipping the Houston Texans, forcing the Texans to play catch-up, which isn't their strength. Tom Brady doesn't let up off the accelerator either, continuing to go for big plays even when the Pats are up big. This is a team that goes for the kill every chance they get and it's hard to think the Ravens will slow them down.
Truth is, I'm trying to find reasons to pick the Ravens and it's not easy. Maybe the Ray Lewis retirement tour is enough to get them back in the Super Bowl, but it might take another miracle from Flacco and the offense.
Pick: Ravens 30, Patriots 28
Last: 2-2
Overall: 4-4
Showing posts with label 49ers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 49ers. Show all posts
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
The Sports Mixer - Divisional Playoff Picks
The playoffs are the most difficult picks to make. Teams that appear to be red-hot often cool dramatically when the playoffs start as the pressure ramps the intensity of things up significantly. Teams that were dominant in the regular season wilt under all the pressure the playoffs bring.
For example, the Cincinnati Bengals were on a roll heading into the playoffs while the Houston Texans were faltering. The Texans didn't exactly roll offensively, but their defense did a number on the Bengals and helped them cruise to victory. Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts had been one of the best stories in recent memory, but the Baltimore Ravens turned them to dust as Ray Lewis played his final home game in his long career.
The Minnesota Vikings had outlasted the Green Bay Packers in the regular season finale as Adrian Peterson ran over and through Packers' defenders as if they weren't there, and while he still racked up some good numbers, with Christian Ponder sidelined the Vikings had no offensive answer for the Packers and lost. Meanwhile the Seattle Seahawks spotted the Washington Redskins 14 points before dominating defensively. The injury to Robert Griffin III made things easier, but they still dominated a previously good running game.
The performance makes their upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons much more difficult to predict. Additionally, teams coming off the bye haven't been as sharp in recent years so do you compensate for that factor? Particularly challenging is the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers. The 49ers have been good against elite competition this year, but also can potentially falter when least expected. The Packers can put up numbers, but can the offensive line protect Aaron Rodgers against a very good pass-rush?
Let's find out, shall we?
Saturday
Baltimore (10-6) at Denver (13-3) - 4:30pm CBS
The Ravens needed that first win as much as any team entering the playoffs having lost three of their final four to back into the third seed. Their reward was a very green Colts team that just wasn't able to overcome the return of Ray Lewis to a maligned defensive unit. The Ravens dominated the Colts on both sides of the ball and seemed like a different team. The Colts overachieved all season long, there's no doubt about that, but the Ravens removed the doubt early on. Now they travel to Denver where they lost by 17 points earlier in the season. Additionally, Peyton Manning has a personal nine game winning streak going against the Ravens. Once again, the odds are stacked against the Ravens and I have a hard time seeing them overcome them.
The Broncos ended the season on fire, having won eleven straight games and thoroughly dominating opponents by the last quarter of the season. Peyton Manning continues to defy the odds in that he doesn't look like a guy coming off multiple neck surgeries and one missed season. He has complete control of the Denver offense and runs it at a high tempo to keep defensives on their heels. Not to be outdone, the Broncos' defense has shined led by Von Miller. Finally, this game being in Denver tilts things in the favor of the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 23
Green Bay (11-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1) - 8pm FOX
The Packers exacted revenge against the Vikings for knocking them out of the second seed with their win last week. Defensively they were as good as they'd been all year, although Adrian Peterson still picked up 99 yards, it was a dramatic improvement over the previous two meetings. It helped that Christian Ponder was out, leaving the keys to the offense in the hands of Joe Webb, who had a very tough time throwing the ball. On the other side, the Packers offensive line held up long enough for Aaron Rodgers to get the ball downfield and the running game was just good enough to help with play-action.
The 49ers have one advantage in this game, and it's their defense which excels at getting pressure on the quarterback. Combine that against a shaky offensive line on Green Bay and you have the opportunity for a big game for the defensive line. Colin Kaepernick has been up and down, but he possesses a far-better arm that Webb and if Frank Gore is running hard, the 49ers can control the game and keep Rodgers off the field. That's going to be the biggest key in this game. If they can pressure Rodgers and control the ball, the 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.
Pick: 49ers 23, Packers 20
Sunday
Seattle (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3) - 1pm FOX
This was the toughest game to pick. The Seahawks have been on some kind of roll for several weeks now, but I was betting on RGIII having a big game in his postseason debut. Instead, the Seahawks' defense swarmed the Redskins offense and made life difficult. The Seahawks offense meanwhile was efficient behind Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, who seems to shine brightest in the playoffs (remember his rumbling touchdown against the Saints a couple years back?). They're starting to play as well on the road as they have at home, which is big since they won't get a home game this postseason. They get to go to Atlanta this week and take on one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons are a team that I worry about coming off the bye. Until late in the season, they had struggled at times, yet found ways to win, especially against inferior opponents. Seattle is not inferior and their pass defense is very good, which will challenge Matt Ryan. Luckily, he has Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez to throw passes to, which offsets a relatively weak running game. Ryan can be flustered and has yet to win a playoff game, so this is a big test for him in his march towards elite status. He's flamed out too many times in the playoffs, so it's time for him to step up. I just don't know if he can overcome the roll the Seahawks have been on.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17
Houston (12-4) at New England (12-4) - 4:30pm CBS
This is potentially the best matchup of the weekend as the Texans look to avenge one of the worst losses for them in the regular season, a 42-17 blowout at the hands of the Patriots in Foxboro. Matt Schaub made a solid, if unspectacular playoff debut last week against a good Bengals defense, but his play was sporadic enough to leave question marks about his performance. Arian Foster has been carrying the Texans for two years though, and if he can continue to run well, the Texans will have a chance. They can't fall behind early again like they did last time or it'll be a long evening in New England.
The Patriots seem as ready as they've ever been for a long playoff run. After some early season stumbles and questions about how much Tom Brady has left in the tank, the Patriots went on a tear, consistently beating good teams badly, their only stumble being against the 49ers, and even then they nearly pulled off an incredible comeback. Bill Belichick will have this team ready to go and it could be a long day again for the Texans.
Pick: Patriots 34, Texans 24
Last week: 2-2
For example, the Cincinnati Bengals were on a roll heading into the playoffs while the Houston Texans were faltering. The Texans didn't exactly roll offensively, but their defense did a number on the Bengals and helped them cruise to victory. Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts had been one of the best stories in recent memory, but the Baltimore Ravens turned them to dust as Ray Lewis played his final home game in his long career.
The Minnesota Vikings had outlasted the Green Bay Packers in the regular season finale as Adrian Peterson ran over and through Packers' defenders as if they weren't there, and while he still racked up some good numbers, with Christian Ponder sidelined the Vikings had no offensive answer for the Packers and lost. Meanwhile the Seattle Seahawks spotted the Washington Redskins 14 points before dominating defensively. The injury to Robert Griffin III made things easier, but they still dominated a previously good running game.
The performance makes their upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons much more difficult to predict. Additionally, teams coming off the bye haven't been as sharp in recent years so do you compensate for that factor? Particularly challenging is the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers. The 49ers have been good against elite competition this year, but also can potentially falter when least expected. The Packers can put up numbers, but can the offensive line protect Aaron Rodgers against a very good pass-rush?
Let's find out, shall we?
Saturday
Baltimore (10-6) at Denver (13-3) - 4:30pm CBS
The Ravens needed that first win as much as any team entering the playoffs having lost three of their final four to back into the third seed. Their reward was a very green Colts team that just wasn't able to overcome the return of Ray Lewis to a maligned defensive unit. The Ravens dominated the Colts on both sides of the ball and seemed like a different team. The Colts overachieved all season long, there's no doubt about that, but the Ravens removed the doubt early on. Now they travel to Denver where they lost by 17 points earlier in the season. Additionally, Peyton Manning has a personal nine game winning streak going against the Ravens. Once again, the odds are stacked against the Ravens and I have a hard time seeing them overcome them.
The Broncos ended the season on fire, having won eleven straight games and thoroughly dominating opponents by the last quarter of the season. Peyton Manning continues to defy the odds in that he doesn't look like a guy coming off multiple neck surgeries and one missed season. He has complete control of the Denver offense and runs it at a high tempo to keep defensives on their heels. Not to be outdone, the Broncos' defense has shined led by Von Miller. Finally, this game being in Denver tilts things in the favor of the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 23
Green Bay (11-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1) - 8pm FOX
The Packers exacted revenge against the Vikings for knocking them out of the second seed with their win last week. Defensively they were as good as they'd been all year, although Adrian Peterson still picked up 99 yards, it was a dramatic improvement over the previous two meetings. It helped that Christian Ponder was out, leaving the keys to the offense in the hands of Joe Webb, who had a very tough time throwing the ball. On the other side, the Packers offensive line held up long enough for Aaron Rodgers to get the ball downfield and the running game was just good enough to help with play-action.
The 49ers have one advantage in this game, and it's their defense which excels at getting pressure on the quarterback. Combine that against a shaky offensive line on Green Bay and you have the opportunity for a big game for the defensive line. Colin Kaepernick has been up and down, but he possesses a far-better arm that Webb and if Frank Gore is running hard, the 49ers can control the game and keep Rodgers off the field. That's going to be the biggest key in this game. If they can pressure Rodgers and control the ball, the 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.
Pick: 49ers 23, Packers 20
Sunday
Seattle (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3) - 1pm FOX
This was the toughest game to pick. The Seahawks have been on some kind of roll for several weeks now, but I was betting on RGIII having a big game in his postseason debut. Instead, the Seahawks' defense swarmed the Redskins offense and made life difficult. The Seahawks offense meanwhile was efficient behind Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, who seems to shine brightest in the playoffs (remember his rumbling touchdown against the Saints a couple years back?). They're starting to play as well on the road as they have at home, which is big since they won't get a home game this postseason. They get to go to Atlanta this week and take on one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons are a team that I worry about coming off the bye. Until late in the season, they had struggled at times, yet found ways to win, especially against inferior opponents. Seattle is not inferior and their pass defense is very good, which will challenge Matt Ryan. Luckily, he has Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez to throw passes to, which offsets a relatively weak running game. Ryan can be flustered and has yet to win a playoff game, so this is a big test for him in his march towards elite status. He's flamed out too many times in the playoffs, so it's time for him to step up. I just don't know if he can overcome the roll the Seahawks have been on.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17
Houston (12-4) at New England (12-4) - 4:30pm CBS
This is potentially the best matchup of the weekend as the Texans look to avenge one of the worst losses for them in the regular season, a 42-17 blowout at the hands of the Patriots in Foxboro. Matt Schaub made a solid, if unspectacular playoff debut last week against a good Bengals defense, but his play was sporadic enough to leave question marks about his performance. Arian Foster has been carrying the Texans for two years though, and if he can continue to run well, the Texans will have a chance. They can't fall behind early again like they did last time or it'll be a long evening in New England.
The Patriots seem as ready as they've ever been for a long playoff run. After some early season stumbles and questions about how much Tom Brady has left in the tank, the Patriots went on a tear, consistently beating good teams badly, their only stumble being against the 49ers, and even then they nearly pulled off an incredible comeback. Bill Belichick will have this team ready to go and it could be a long day again for the Texans.
Pick: Patriots 34, Texans 24
Last week: 2-2
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