The playoffs are the most difficult picks to make. Teams that appear to be red-hot often cool dramatically when the playoffs start as the pressure ramps the intensity of things up significantly. Teams that were dominant in the regular season wilt under all the pressure the playoffs bring.
For example, the Cincinnati Bengals were on a roll heading into the playoffs while the Houston Texans were faltering. The Texans didn't exactly roll offensively, but their defense did a number on the Bengals and helped them cruise to victory. Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts had been one of the best stories in recent memory, but the Baltimore Ravens turned them to dust as Ray Lewis played his final home game in his long career.
The Minnesota Vikings had outlasted the Green Bay Packers in the regular season finale as Adrian Peterson ran over and through Packers' defenders as if they weren't there, and while he still racked up some good numbers, with Christian Ponder sidelined the Vikings had no offensive answer for the Packers and lost. Meanwhile the Seattle Seahawks spotted the Washington Redskins 14 points before dominating defensively. The injury to Robert Griffin III made things easier, but they still dominated a previously good running game.
The performance makes their upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons much more difficult to predict. Additionally, teams coming off the bye haven't been as sharp in recent years so do you compensate for that factor? Particularly challenging is the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers. The 49ers have been good against elite competition this year, but also can potentially falter when least expected. The Packers can put up numbers, but can the offensive line protect Aaron Rodgers against a very good pass-rush?
Let's find out, shall we?
Saturday
Baltimore (10-6) at Denver (13-3) - 4:30pm CBS
The Ravens needed that first win as much as any team entering the playoffs having lost three of their final four to back into the third seed. Their reward was a very green Colts team that just wasn't able to overcome the return of Ray Lewis to a maligned defensive unit. The Ravens dominated the Colts on both sides of the ball and seemed like a different team. The Colts overachieved all season long, there's no doubt about that, but the Ravens removed the doubt early on. Now they travel to Denver where they lost by 17 points earlier in the season. Additionally, Peyton Manning has a personal nine game winning streak going against the Ravens. Once again, the odds are stacked against the Ravens and I have a hard time seeing them overcome them.
The Broncos ended the season on fire, having won eleven straight games and thoroughly dominating opponents by the last quarter of the season. Peyton Manning continues to defy the odds in that he doesn't look like a guy coming off multiple neck surgeries and one missed season. He has complete control of the Denver offense and runs it at a high tempo to keep defensives on their heels. Not to be outdone, the Broncos' defense has shined led by Von Miller. Finally, this game being in Denver tilts things in the favor of the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 23
Green Bay (11-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1) - 8pm FOX
The Packers exacted revenge against the Vikings for knocking them out of the second seed with their win last week. Defensively they were as good as they'd been all year, although Adrian Peterson still picked up 99 yards, it was a dramatic improvement over the previous two meetings. It helped that Christian Ponder was out, leaving the keys to the offense in the hands of Joe Webb, who had a very tough time throwing the ball. On the other side, the Packers offensive line held up long enough for Aaron Rodgers to get the ball downfield and the running game was just good enough to help with play-action.
The 49ers have one advantage in this game, and it's their defense which excels at getting pressure on the quarterback. Combine that against a shaky offensive line on Green Bay and you have the opportunity for a big game for the defensive line. Colin Kaepernick has been up and down, but he possesses a far-better arm that Webb and if Frank Gore is running hard, the 49ers can control the game and keep Rodgers off the field. That's going to be the biggest key in this game. If they can pressure Rodgers and control the ball, the 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.
Pick: 49ers 23, Packers 20
Sunday
Seattle (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3) - 1pm FOX
This was the toughest game to pick. The Seahawks have been on some kind of roll for several weeks now, but I was betting on RGIII having a big game in his postseason debut. Instead, the Seahawks' defense swarmed the Redskins offense and made life difficult. The Seahawks offense meanwhile was efficient behind Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, who seems to shine brightest in the playoffs (remember his rumbling touchdown against the Saints a couple years back?). They're starting to play as well on the road as they have at home, which is big since they won't get a home game this postseason. They get to go to Atlanta this week and take on one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons are a team that I worry about coming off the bye. Until late in the season, they had struggled at times, yet found ways to win, especially against inferior opponents. Seattle is not inferior and their pass defense is very good, which will challenge Matt Ryan. Luckily, he has Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez to throw passes to, which offsets a relatively weak running game. Ryan can be flustered and has yet to win a playoff game, so this is a big test for him in his march towards elite status. He's flamed out too many times in the playoffs, so it's time for him to step up. I just don't know if he can overcome the roll the Seahawks have been on.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17
Houston (12-4) at New England (12-4) - 4:30pm CBS
This is potentially the best matchup of the weekend as the Texans look to avenge one of the worst losses for them in the regular season, a 42-17 blowout at the hands of the Patriots in Foxboro. Matt Schaub made a solid, if unspectacular playoff debut last week against a good Bengals defense, but his play was sporadic enough to leave question marks about his performance. Arian Foster has been carrying the Texans for two years though, and if he can continue to run well, the Texans will have a chance. They can't fall behind early again like they did last time or it'll be a long evening in New England.
The Patriots seem as ready as they've ever been for a long playoff run. After some early season stumbles and questions about how much Tom Brady has left in the tank, the Patriots went on a tear, consistently beating good teams badly, their only stumble being against the 49ers, and even then they nearly pulled off an incredible comeback. Bill Belichick will have this team ready to go and it could be a long day again for the Texans.
Pick: Patriots 34, Texans 24
Last week: 2-2
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