Getting the post up late last week cost me a valuable pick-win. It's a mistake that won't (probably will) happen again.
In any case, it was a good week for picks, even if I missed badly on the San Fran game, but really, who saw their back-up quarterback having that kind of performance against the Bears defense? I sure didn't. I expected a low-scoring affair, but give the 49ers some credit for playing exceptionally well.
I also doubt many expected the Colts-Patriots game to get so out of hand as quickly as it did, but Andrew Luck was due to have a clunker. Might as well be at the hands of Bill Belichick, who seems to befuddle rookie quarterbacks more often than not. Luck was also on the receiving end of some bad, uh, luck in the game as well.
I think the most surprising thing was watching Jacksonville take Houston into overtime, hanging with the Texans step for step until the end when Andre Johnson finally broke away with the winning score. A week after the defense was incredible against the Bears, it was broken against the Jaguars and their backup quarterback, Chad Henne.
What will this week bring? Stay tuned and find out.
Thursday
Houston (9-1) at Detroit (4-6) - 12:30pm CBS
The Texans survived a scare at home last week. Matt Schaub and the offense played a spectacular game, but how in the world do you allow the Jaguars to rack up 37 points of offense while being led by their backup quarterback? What does this mean for them going forward? It means they had a bad game and I expect the defense to refocus and get it together with Megatron looming.
The Lions, I thought they were coming around, but then they laid an egg against the Vikings before having to deal with a red-hot Aaron Rodgers last week. Now they get the Texans, the best team in the AFC. Yes, they're at home, but I doubt it will matter much. No one has stepped up to take the pressure off of Calvin Johnson so teams just continue to double team him without worry.
Pick: Texans 27, Lions 17
Washington (4-6) at Dallas (5-5) - 4:15pm FOX
The Redskins are coming off an impressive performance against the Eagles, which really isn't saying much giving that the Eagles are about as competitive as a pop warner team right now (and that's a disservice to pop warner teams everywhere). But you can't deny how stellar Robert Griffin III's performance was in that game. Now he goes up against a better defense, but one that has some holes in it as the Browns showed last week.
Meanwhile, just how good can you feel in Dallas coming off a 23-20 overtime win over the Browns? Tony Romo was sacked seven times and the run game was still non-existent, a problem against better teams. The Redskins aren't a better team, but they'll give the Cowboys a heck of a fight regardless. It'll be interesting to see DeMarcus Ware try and track down RGIII though.
Pick: Cowboys 24, Redskins 21
New England (7-3) at NY Jets (4-6) - 8:20 NBC
The Patriots continue to roll offensively and make just enough plays defensively to be taken seriously as a contender. They're averaging almost 36 points a game, which is bolstered by two 50 point explosions, a 45 point outing, and several 30+ point totals as well. In other words, Tom Brady hasn't lost a step, which is scary for most teams.
The Jets are one of the few that put up a fight this year, surprisingly enough, losing in overtime in week 7. Mark Sanchez didn't play a great game last week, but he was much more efficient as the Jets had a much easier time with the Rams than anticipated in this corner. This matchup figures to be another close one as the Jets always seem to bring their best against the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots 30, Jets 26
Sunday
Minnesota (6-4) at Chicago (7-3) - 1pm FOX
The Vikings righted the ship two weeks ago with a surprisingly easy victory over the Lions, then had a bye week to prepare for the Bears who are suddenly reeling. I'm still not sold on the Vikings being a playoff team however, and I think this game will be a reminder of that fact. Sure, Adrian Peterson could go off, allowing Christian Ponder the time to throw the ball, but the Bears may be slightly testy following their disappearing act last week.
Speaking of the Bears, that was a putrid performance on Monday Night Football. Defensively, they stunk. Offensively, they were worse. Who knew Jay Cutler meant that much to the offense? In all honesty, when you rely on your defense to give you at least one score a game, sometimes more, and that doesn't happen with Jason Campbell running the show instead of Cutler behind that horrific offensive line, what did you expect to happen? The Sports Mixer obviously did not take this into consideration last week and missed on the pick because of that. I just can't see the Vikings pulling this off though. Is anyone on the Bears defense angry?
Pick: Bears 17, Vikings 13
Oakland (3-7) at Cincinnati (5-5) - 1pm CBS
The Raiders are such a mess defensively. Two weeks ago they allowed the Ravens to score at will and hit the 50 point mark, this past week they improved by only allowing 38 points. Carson Palmer hasn't been terrible for the Raiders, but he hasn't shown anything to justify the picks the Raiders gave up to get him either. They've fared well against AFC North opponents in recent years though, so there's a glimmer of hope Raider Nation.
The Bengals looked lost for a while there, losing three games in a row before suddenly coming out and beating down the Giants two weeks ago. Then they got the Chiefs, who are the gift that keeps on giving when it comes to facing other teams. Now they're back in the wild card picture, one game behind the wounded Steelers. While not a gimme, this is a game they should win.
Pick: Bengals 24, Raiders 12
Buffalo (4-6) at Indianapolis (6-4) - 1pm CBS
The Bills finally received the type of performance from their defense that they expected all season long. Mario Williams was a beast on the defensive line and the Bills kept the Dolphins in check from start to finish, although the offense was very lackluster. Ryan Fitzpatrick goes from being Dan Marino one series to Ryan Leaf the next and that has been one of the more frustrating aspects to an otherwise explosive offense.
The Colts and Andrew Luck were bound to have a bad game and the Patriots handed it to them last week. Now we get to see how the rookie quarterback responds to a bad outing against a defense that has been vulnerable at times to good passing offenses. More importantly, can the Colts defense shore up the weakness shown last week? The Colts have a great shot at making the playoffs, but they can't have any more clunkers.
Pick: Colts 34, Bills 30
Denver (7-3) at Kansas City (1-9) - 1pm CBS
Is there any team hotter than the Broncos right now? After spotting the Chargers an early lead, Peyton Manning wrestled the lead back and led the Broncos to a 30-23 victory that solidified their hold on the division. Now comes the divisional doormats, the Chiefs, who can barely hold a lead, much less win a game anymore. A week after playing the Steelers to the bitter end, the Chiefs came out flat against the Bengals and never were in the game.
This game would normally be an upset alert, but the Chiefs have been so bad this year that I can't possibly consider them for that position until they string two semi-positive performances in a row. I don't think this will be that game. In fact, this game could get ugly before the first quarter is over, something I know Chiefs fans hope isn't the case.
Pick: Broncos 34, Chiefs 13
Seattle (6-4) at Miami (4-6) - 1pm FOX
The Seahawks have been the type of team when I pick them, they lose, when I don't, they win. Russel Wilson has been outstanding at home, but hasn't been so good on the road. What makes this game difficult to pick is how bad Miami has looked the last couple of weeks.
They were embarrassed two weeks ago by the Titans, then couldn't get anything going last week against a Bills defense that had underachieved most of the season. This is a big game for Ryan Tannehill and Reggie Bush. They need to get it together and give fans reason to believe that this team is heading in the right direction.
Pick: Seahawks 19, Dolphins 17
Atlanta (9-1) at Tampa Bay (6-4) - 1pm FOX
The Falcons have lived on the edge all season long and I don't see any reason this week will be different against the upstart Buccaneers. Matt Ryan has been good, but the team seems to constantly be playing from behind no matter who they play. Against lesser teams this has been good enough, but at some point it's going to bite them like it did against the Saints.
The Bucs are that scrappy team that no one wants to face right now. Josh Freeman seems to have the ability to play as poorly as possible for a good portion of the game, then suddenly become the best quarterback to ever play the game as he pulls the Bucs from the brink of defeat to win once again. I want to believe that the Bucs can pull the upset, but Ryan and the Falcons just have the poise needed to win close games.
Pick: Falcons 35, Buccaneers 31
Tennessee (4-6) at Jacksonville (1-9) - 1pm CBS
This is the type of game that favors the Titans, a team that has underwhelmed most of the season while attempting to develop Jake Locker. Chris Johnson at times has looked like the guy who ran for over 2,000 yards a few years back, but he's also had games where he's been unable to get anything going. The defense, with one notable exception against Miami, has been awful.
The Jaguars had an offensive explosion last week, but with how their season has gone, is it any surprise that they scored 37 points and lost? Blaine Gabbert is now gone for the season, which for some Jags fans is a sign of mercy. He'd shown little improvement in his second year and the Jags have just not had any consistency on offense. Sure Justin Blackmon has come on of late, but unless he has a moster final 6 games, he will be a disappointment.
Pick: Titans 31, Jaguars 28
Baltimore (8-2) at San Diego (4-6) - 4:05pm CBS
The Ravens won an ugly game against the Steelers last week, a game that featured 23 total points and a knockout of the Steelers' backup, Byron Leftwich. Now the Ravens travel to San Diego where the talented but flawed Chargers wait. Will the Ravens finally unleash Ray Rice and balance the offense? Or will they continue to try and insist on Joe Flacco beating everyone?
The Chargers are beyond lost at this point. Philip Rivers just doesn't seem to be the same guy this year and the team is constantly giving up chunks of yards and points. They can get a lead, but they can't put their opponent away and have yet to recover from their earlier meltdown when they led 24-0, only to lose to the Broncos by ten. This team is going nowhere fast.
Pick: Ravens 27, Chargers 17
San Francisco (7-2-1) at New Orleans (5-5) - 4:25pm FOX
Certainly this is one of the matchups of the week, the 49ers are coming off a stunning beatdown of the Chicago Bears, but now must travel to the Superdome to face the Saints, who have suddenly become the hottest team in the NFL. The 49ers showed a more explosive offense under Colin Kaepernick, who threw the ball well enough to cause their coach to say they might have to play both quarterbacks once Alex Smith is healthy.
The Saints are humming still on offense. Drew Brees and company just put up 38 points on the Raiders, which isn't much considering what the Raiders gave up the week before, but they only allowed 17 points, which is a vast improvement. The defense overall has been somewhat better since the return of Jonathan Vilma. Can they score on the 49ers and slow down the Kaepernick machine? I think so.
Pick: Saints 27, 49ers 24
St. Louis (3-6-1) at Arizona (4-6) - 4:25pm - FOX
The Rams have been such an up and down team. One week after playing the 49ers to a tie on the road, the Rams decide not to show up against the Jets in an uninspiring performance. Now they have to go to Arizona to face another underwhelming team, the Cardinals, who can't decide who's going to get beat up behind their offensive line.
The Cardinals might have the worst offensive line in the history of the NFL. It really doesn't matter who they put behind center; it's almost a guarantee that they're going to get knocked out of the game relatively quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if they were holding auditions by week 14 with all their quarterbacks on injured reserve.
Pick: Rams 17, Cardinals 13
Green Bay (7-3) at NY Giants (6-4) - 8:20 NBC
The Packers are finally playing like most thought they would at the start of the season, racking up points and victories as they attempt to take control of the NFC North. With the Bears dealing with injuries, this is the perfect time for the Packers to take control and move into first place.
The Giants should be angry. Two weeks ago they were 6-2 and being lauded as a top-tier team in the NFC. Now there are questions about how good they really are and if they can even make the playoffs. The Cowboys are now a game behind and a couple of weeks from now, it could be the opposite unless the Giants get it together. This is a tough week to do it in though.
Pick: Packers 34, Giants 20
Monday
Carolina (2-8) at Philadelphia (3-7) - 8:30pm ESPN
The Panthers could easily have won four or five games this season, but have given away a bunch of games due to bad decisions by both players and coaches. Now they travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles, who have become a virtual sideshow in the NFL circus. Nick Foles heard the cries of fans everywhere, and promptly played as poorly as one could play in place of Michael Vick. When the problem is a line that can't pass block, it doesn't matter who's back there. Now if they only had a good running back to take the load off their quarterbacks...Wait.
The Panthers could and should win this game. The Eagles have no business winning this game and are in desperate need of a leader to step up and say enough is enough. I don't see that happening, therefore I don't see a win.
Pick: Panthers 23, Eagles 12
Browns Game
Pittsburgh (6-4) at Cleveland (2-8) - 1pm CBS
The Steelers are coming off a tough loss and are in a difficult spot; trying to win football games with Charlie Batch now that both Ben Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich are out with injuries. This is one banged up team, but they probably feel solace in that they're facing the Browns, the most dysfunctional team in the NFL at this point. Still, without their top offensive and defensive players, it's going to be hard to come by a win against a team that has fought to the bitter end most weeks.
The Browns are another team that could easily have five or six wins at this point. Instead, they are 2-8 and facing abundant questions about their future in many areas. A win this week would soothe a lot of fans feelings, but it would have to be a convincing win. Trent Richardson needs to stop dancing and run through the hole. Brandon Weeden needs to cut down the mistakes and rediscover the deep ball that has eluded him of late. The defense just needs to stop people. They can do it, but they have to put forth 60 minutes of effort for once.
Pick: Browns 27, Steelers 19
Last week: 11-2
Overall: 81-29-1
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