Most teams are now halfway through their schedule in the NFL, and the playoff picture will start to become clear in the coming weeks.
What we've been able to discern at the Sports Mixer is that some teams are definite contenders and others are clearly pretenders. Unfortunately, there are still several teams with question marks above them, making it hard to figure if they're pretenders or contenders.
For the most part, teams that made the playoffs last year are in the running this year, meaning the usual high turnover amongst playoff teams from the previous year is potentially going to be bucked this season. What we do know is that the Texans, Bears, Falcons, 49ers, and Giants are the class of the NFL. The Packers are creeping right back up there, the Broncos are coming on strong, the Patriots are scoring again, the Ravens are trying to hold onto their lead, and the Steelers are starting to show their form from previous seasons.
What will we learn this week though?
We'll learn if the Chargers want to make a run, if the Colts or Dolphins are a legitimate playoff contender, if the Bengals will get back in the AFC North race, if the Lions have some life in them still, if the Raiders will continue to play well, if the Cowboys are truly a Super Bowl contending team, if the Eagles have any resolve, if the Vikings can bounce back against a strong defense, and if the Browns will make it two in a row.
Let's make some picks and see what happens, shall we?
Thursday
Kansas City (1-6) at San Diego (3-4) - 8:20pm NFL Network
The Chiefs are a bad football team. Matt Cassel is only starting because Brady Quinn couldn't stay on the field last week and suffered a concussion. Romeo Crennel is now on the hot seat one year after being praised as a savior in KC. The defense has given up some big plays, but for the most part hasn't been the problem. The Chiefs can't stop giving the ball away on offense and it's killed them all season long. It's been so bad, the only time they've led is when they won in overtime against the Saints, and that was when they took the lead to win the game.
The Chargers were in the driver's seat in the AFC West at 3-1. Since then, they've lost three straight games, most recently to the Browns in as ugly a football game as you'll ever see. Philip Rivers is more likely to be seen screaming at teammates on the sidelines than throwing a touchdown pass these days. They ran the ball well last week, but the big plays just haven't been there and head coach Norv Turner is back on the hot seat again. It may be time to blow things up in San Diego, but this is a game they should win.
Just like last week.
Pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 13
Sunday
Denver (4-3) at Cincinnati (3-4) - 1pm CBS
The Broncos are rolling now behind Peyton Manning, who seems to have found a comfort zone in the offense and with his receivers. The defense has also gotten better in recent weeks, most evident in how they absolutely shut down a high-scoring Saints offense. Did Manning benefit from playing a bad, bad defense last week? Sure, but you still have to make the throws and he did just that. Even tipped balls found their way to the target. Life is good in Denver.
Life isn't so good in Cincy. The Bengals have lost three straight games and this past week head coach Marvin Lewis called out his quarterback, saying he needed to be a louder voice in the huddle. Andy Dalton concurred with his coach's assessment, but it's going to be tough sledding this week. The Bengals have to get a running game going if they want to win, something they haven't done all season.
Pick: Broncos 27, Bengals 24
Arizona (4-4) at Green Bay (5-3) - 1pm FOX
The Cardinals are the worst 4-4 football team ever. They can't run, they can't protect their quarterback, and the defense was shredded last week by the 49ers in their own building. Arguing whether John Skelton is an upgrade over Kevin Kolb is pointless; neither stands a chance until they fix the offensive line, which has been offensive for most of the season. The joke is they're so bad, Skelton is currently getting up from a sack as I write this.
The Packers are a shaky 5-3, but could be 6-2 if not for an infamous blown call a few weeks back. Now the defense gets to go up against a bad line and maybe get its sack numbers up a bit. Clay Matthews, Jr has to be chomping at the bit. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers appears to have righted the ship, although last week's unconvincing win against the Jaguars shows how far the team still has to go on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Packers 35, Cardinals 17
Chicago (6-1) at Tennessee (3-5) - 1pm FOX
The Bears have a very opportunistic defense. They've scored six touchdowns courtesy of their defense, which has helped an underwhelming offense get by. Jay Cutler shows how good he can be when he gets time in the pocket, unfortunately, he doesn't always get the time needed to make a play. Matt Forte has been good, but not spectacular running the ball, which is why most go back to the defense being the primary reason this team is 6-1.
The Titans lost a heart-breaker last week against the Colts. They didn't get a chance in overtime thanks to the twisting, turning, diving play of Vick Ballard, who took a swing pass that was nearly picked off the distance for a touchdown. The Titans have had several chances to win games, but haven't been able to pull it off. This game will be significantly harder for them though. The Bears defense is tough and while the Titans defense may keep them in the game for a while, it ultimately can't keep up with the Bears.
Pick: Bears 20, Titans 12
Miami (4-3) at Indianapolis (4-3) - 1pm CBS
To the Sports Mixer, this is the best game this week. Two young, overachieving teams meeting with their potential playoff futures on the line, what more could you ask for? The Dolphins are coming off their smackdown of the trash-talking Jets, a game they thoroughly dominated on both sides of the ball, even with Ryan Tannehill getting hurt. Tannehill has practiced this week, but they learned they have a capable back-up in Matt Moore. The defense stifled Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense, which isn't saying much, but hey, they did it.
The Colts are one of the biggest surprises of the year so far. Andrew Luck has met and exceeded most expectations, and while RGIII gets most of the rookie headlines, Luck has been the most consistent of the rookie quarterbacks so far. It helps to have Reggie Wayne on your team of course, plus a little bit of luck. The Colts are better at home than on the road, but I think Luck is due for a hiccup at the hands of the Dolphin defense.
Pick: Dolphins 27, Colts 23
Carolina (1-6) at Washington (3-5) - 1pm FOX
Carolina is not a good team. Much like the Chiefs, expectations were high for this team and Cam Newton coming off a fabulous rookie campaign, and like the Chiefs, the Panthers have failed miserably to meet those expectations. Newton played better last week against the Bears, but still lost. He threw a costly pick-six, but redeemed himself by leading the Panthers down to take the lead late. Unfortunately, there was enough time for the Bears to respond and they did against the weak Panther defense.
Robert Griffin III was bound to have a bad game, and if anyone was going to cause him to have a rough day, it would be a Dick-Lebeau led defense. The Steelers prevented RGIII from finding any running room and made passing the ball difficult as well. I think it was something that needed to happen, if only to remind RGIII it's not always that easy in the NFL. I think the Redskins will bounce back this week against a bad Panthers team. It will be a score-fest though since the Redskins defense is so banged up.
Pick: Redskins 34, Panthers 26
Detroit (3-4) at Jacksonville (1-6) - 1pm FOX
The Lions needed last week's win in the worst way. A playoff team a year ago, it had been a struggle for the Lions and continued to be so for much of the day last Sunday against the Seahawks defense. But Matt Stafford and the Lions prevailed on a late score and now have a chance to get some momentum going into a crucial divisional game against the Vikings, but they need to take care of business on the road in Jacksonville first, which could be trickier than anticipated.
The Jags hung in there against the Packers last week, but ultimately couldn't make enough plays on either side of the ball to get the upset victory. Blaine Gabbert came back from injury and tried to keep the Jags close, but the Jags just lack the weapons that other teams have. For a short period, it appeared that game was going to go down to the wire, but the Jags ran out of steam and the Packers pulled away. Now they get another high-flying offense. This will be too much for them.
Pick: Lions 27, Jaguars 13
Buffalo (3-4) at Houston (6-1) - 1pm CBS
The Bills have been an enigma all season long. They sign Mario Williams to a huge contract to improve the defense, and instead they give up 48 points to the Jets (who can't score on anyone), 52 points to the Patriots (after having a 21-7 lead), 45 points to the 49ers (a good offense, but no juggernaut), and 35 points to the Titans (no comment). When they win, the defense has allowed less than 20 points in each game, but when they lose it's bad. Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken his share of the blame, but the defense has played pathetically in their losses. They need to step up if they want to win in Houston.
The Texans were embarrassed by the Packers a couple weeks back and took that frustration out on the Ravens two weeks ago. Now they've had an extra week to prepare for the Bills and this could be a whitewash if the Texans play to their potential. The Bills front four will not scare Matt Schaub and given the Bills poor run defense, this could be a big day for Arian Foster and Ben Tate.
Pick: Texans 34, Bills 24
Tampa Bay (3-4) at Oakland (3-4) - 4:05pm FOX
The Buccaneers came to play last Thursday night in Minnesota. They ran the ball effectively, shut down the Vikings offense, and kept the effort up for 60 minutes. Now they get to go to the Black Hole in Oakland to see if they can get a second win in a row. It won't be easy, but the Bucs can do it if they continue to run the ball and quarterback Josh Freeman is effective passing.
The Raiders are such a baffling team. They get a big win against the Steelers one week, then get pasted by the Broncos the next. They lost a close one to the Falcons and needed overtime to beat the Jags, but rolled to a relatively easy win over the Chiefs (not difficult to do though). Now they host the Bucs with a chance to get back to .500, stay relatively close to the Broncos, and solidify their chances of at least getting into the playoffs. So naturally, they'll have 17 penalties and Carson Palmer will throw four interceptions. I could be completely wrong though. You never know which Raider team will show up.
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Raiders 17 (Sorry Heny)
Minnesota (5-3) at Seattle (4-4) - 4:05pm FOX
The Vikings had a chance to solidify their playoff chances at home last week. Instead, they upchucked all over themselves on both sides of the ball as Tampa Bay rolled to an easy victory. Now they have to go on the road and play in football's toughest environment against a team that gave away their game last week. This could get ugly in a hurry.
The Seahawks have to be mad at themselves right now. They had every opportunity to beat the Lions last week, but the defense let them down and allowed the Lions to sneak away with the win. They get their chance at redemption this week against an underwhelming offense led by Christian Ponder. Shut down Adrian Peterson and this game gets much easier. They should take a cue from the Bucs and run the ball right at the front four of the Vikings, who offered no resistance a week ago. Marshawn Lynch should have a good game.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Vikings 17
Pittsburgh (4-3) at NY Giants (6-2) - 4:25pm CBS
I had trouble with this game. The Steelers have been playing better, but they haven't done so hot on the road this season. A win coupled with a potential Ravens loss could be the opening they need to regain control of the division though, and this could be a fight to the end against a Giants team that underachieves at home historically. If the Steelers can run the ball, this game will be much easier for them.
The Giants are not the best home team under Eli Manning, but they have a chance to make a statement this week. Beat a perennial power at home and all but lock up the NFC East, but the Giants will have to stop the run, run the ball well, and keep Ben Roethlisberger under control for 60 minutes, not an easy task. Manning also needs to play better than he did against the Cowboys last week.
Pick: Giants 30, Steelers 28
Dallas (3-4) at Atlanta (7-0) - 8:20pm NBC
The Cowboys keep trying to tell everyone they're still contenders, yet they keep playing like they don't want to make the playoffs. They came back from a 23-0 deficit against the Giants, but couldn't finish the job despite a couple of opportunities. Tony Romo certainly puts up numbers, but his inability to win big games continues to be a problem. Dez Bryant keeps coming close to being that number one receiver every team craves, but he continues to be plagued by drops.
The Falcons were due for an upset last week, but instead stomped all over the Eagles in Philly. Now they get to come back home and see how they fare against a Dallas team that should be desperate. Matt Ryan has been able to utilize all the weapons at his disposal and it's hard to see the Cowboys defense stopping both Roddy White and Julio Jones, nevermind the hard running of Michael Turner. The defense has stepped up as well, containing the Eagles a week ago.
Pick: Falcons 27, Cowboys 17
Monday
Philadelphia (3-4) at New Orleans (2-5) - 8:30pm ESPN
Shame on the Eagles, really. Firing Juan Castillo was supposed to be the magic fix that turned around Andy Reid's team's season, instead, they played their worst defensive game of the season. Granted, the Falcons are a talented team, but where was the resolve? Where was the grit? Where was the sense of urgency? Where was the pass-rush? Michael Vick hit the reduction button on his turnover machine, but still couldn't generate any offense. This week they could score a bunch of points against a bad Saints defense, but they have to face Drew Brees in the Superdome a week after the Saints offense was shut down.
The Saints, well, what can be said about them? They can score a ton, but they give up a ton of points as well. We saw how bad this team can look when the offense doesn't score in last week's game against the Broncos, but they have a chance at getting back on the winning side against a faltering Eagles team. Brees will most likely come out firing, looking to erase the memory of last week's stinker.
Pick: Saints 37, Eagles 31
The Browns
Baltimore (5-2) at Cleveland (2-6) - 1pm CBS
The Ravens are a hurting football team coming off their bye week. With no Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb, the Ravens were torched by the Texans two weeks ago and now go against a Cleveland team whose confidence is growing by the week. A Cleveland team they had to hang on for dear life against earlier in Baltimore. The Ravens will likely try to get Ray Rice going early, but the defense will have to dig deep against an offense that has grown from week to week.
The Browns won an ugly game against the Chargers last week, but it was still a win. Brandon Weeden didn't light the Chargers up, but he played mistake-free and allowed Trent Richardson to control the offense in the rain and win. The defense played its best game of the season, limiting the Chargers to 6 points and coming up with stops when needed most. They'll need to step it up a notch against the Ravens, but they'll be getting Phil Taylor back this week and have Joe Haden back, who missed the first meeting. This game will come down to whether Weeden can continue to grow as a quarterback and if Richardson can pick up chunks of yardage against the Ravens.
Pick: Browns 27, Ravens 23
Bye week
St. Louis, New England, NY Jets, San Francisco
Last: 11-3
Overall: 50-20
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