It's pretty amazing to think that there are only 5 weeks left in the NFL season before the playoffs begin. It seems like only yesterday teams like the Eagles were dreaming of the Super Bowl, thinking about the possibilities. So many teams, so many dreams, so many hopes dashed, in some cases as early as the fifth week. A look at the NFL standings shows six teams with 3 wins or less, which means the season is essentially over.
The playoff push begins for many though as 19 teams have at least five wins and a shot at the postseason. That number will certainly decline as the weeks go by, in many cases this week as several teams hovering around .500 play either vastly superior or vastly inferior opponents. Meanwhile, teams like the Ravens, Texans, Falcons, Broncos, and Patriots will be looking to either wrap up or virtually wrap up a playoff spot.
So let's get to the picks!
Thursday
New Orleans (5-6) at Atlanta (10-1) - 8:20pm NFL Network
A few weeks back, these two teams met back in New Orleans when the Falcons were undefeated. The Saints had been on a roll, but still were underdogs in most people's eyes. Not here at the Sports Mixer. Here, it seemed like the perfect opportunity for the Falcons to go down and the Saints delivered a 31-27 victory. Now the Saints get to travel to Atlanta for the rematch coming off a loss to the 49ers last week. The Saints are getting by almost strictly via offensive production, which means when the offense struggles, the team overall loses.
The Falcons have plenty of motivation to win this game. They can lock up a playoff spot and severely damage the Saints faint hopes all in one fell swoop, oh and avenge their only loss as well. Matt Ryan has been solid all season long, especially at home and I think this week the Falcons avenge the loss. The Saints run the last few weeks has been a nice story, but the defense is still pretty bad. Drew Brees is good, but he can't work miracles.
Pick: Falcons 34, Saints 28
Sunday
Jacksonville (2-9) at Buffalo (4-7) - 1pm CBS
Who knew Chad Henne was the answer for the Jaguars all along? A week after replacing an injured Blaine Gabbert and putting up huge numbers against the Texans, he continued his hot touch against the Titans, leading the Jags to a 24-19 win. Can he keep it up against a maligned Bills defense? It's possible, but I have to see it before I'll trust in his ability to consistently lead a team.
The Bills are a wreck. Let's face it. They get a tough win against the Dolphins, then follow it up by losing to the Colts. The offense is clearly struggling right now and it's a question of how much longer will the Bills continue to go with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He just doesn't have the consistency needed in a quarterback. I think being at home will help, but it's going to take another solid performance from the defense to pull off a win, even against the Jags.
Pick: Bills 20, Jaguars 16
Seattle (6-5) at Chicago (8-3) - 1pm FOX
The Seahawks are 5-0 at home, 1-5 on the road. That's really all you need to know. They're going into a tough environment at Soldier Field against a rejuvenated Bears team. This does not have the signs of a happy ending for Russell Wilson, who has performed exceptionally at home, but not so much on the road. Add in the suspensions of two of their cornerbacks, and things just got real dicey.
The Bears suddenly were healthy with the return of Jay Cutler. They didn't do anything remarkable on offense, they just settled down, which was apparently all they needed to do after getting blown out by the 49ers. I don't think they blow out the Seahawks, but they should be able to win comfortably.
Pick: Bears 24, Seahawks 14
Indianapolis (7-4) at Detroit (4-7) - 1pm CBS
Did anyone think the Colts would be 7-4? Did anyone think they'd be in the conversation for a wild card spot? Did anyone expect Andrew Luck to be this good? No, no, and yes. Luck has been as good as advertised, and the Colts have followed his lead with the help of some key veterans such as Reggie Wayne. At this point, 10 wins is a strong possibility as their final games include match-ups with the Titans, Texans (twice), and Chiefs after this week.
The Lions are just not having a good year. Expectations were high, but we hear more about suspensions and fines than plays on the field at this point in time. The lack of a running game has just absolutely killed them all season long, and while the Colts are one of the worst at stopping the run, the Lions aren't much of a threat to run it. I think both times are going to put up points, but the Lions just don't seem to have it this year and the Colts do.
Pick: Colts 27, Lions 24
Minnesota (6-5) at Green Bay (7-4) - 1pm FOX
Just when you think the Packers are set for a playoff push, the offensive line has self-destructed, putting Aaron Rodgers and his mustache in peril. The problems at the line compound things for an offense that has been relying on Rodgers all season long since they still can't run the ball and has been without Greg Jennings most of the year. Hosting Minnesota will be a challenge, but the Packers need this win and I think they'll get it.
The Vikings are the type of team that can't decide if it wants to be good or bad. Three weeks ago, needing a win, they pummeled the Lions to get to 6-4. Then they followed that up by not showing up against a Bears team that had been beat up the week before. Now they travel to Green Bay, and while the Packers are vulnerable, I just can't trust Christian Ponder and this offense. Adrian Peterson will get his numbers, but that will be about it.
Pick: Packers 31, Vikings 20
Houston (10-1) at Tennessee (4-7) - 1pm CBS
This game has upset special written all over it. The Texans have won two straight overtime games, so they have the potential to be slightly drained, but they've also had a couple extra days to prepare as well. They're also going against a defense that frankly hasn't been that good this year, and that's being nice. There's the potential to put up big numbers, but that's what I thought about them going against Jacksonville. They put up the numbers, but needed a spectacular play in overtime to finish the Jags off.
The Titans have shown promise at time with Jake Locker, but the defense has been a problem most of the season. Last week they became the second team to lose to the Jaguars, not a good way to come into this week against the Texans. Locker can put up yards, but will the Titans be able to get stops? I want to say this will be an upset, but the Texans can get that much closer to a division title with a win.
Pick: Texans 34, Titans 30
Carolina (3-8) at Kansas City (1-10) - 1pm FOX
The Panthers finally saw the Cam Newton on Monday Night Football that they were expecting to see all season long and it showed in both the stat line and the win column. Newton is an exceptional athlete, but his head doesn't seem to be in the right place a lot of the time. When he's on though, he's as dangerous as anyone that's ever played the game. The defense is still suspect, but they played better against a maligned Eagles team.
The Chiefs...their quarterback is Brady Quinn. I really can't say anything else. They've lost 10 games, have barely led in any of their games, and their one win seems incredibly flukish at this point in time. I just can't talk about them.
Pick: Panthers 27, Chiefs 13
San Francisco (8-2-1) at St. Louis (4-6-1) - 1pm FOX
Not too long ago, the 49ers hosted the Rams at Candlestick Park in what was thought to be a mismatch. Much to the home crowd's dismay, the Rams showed up to play and the NFL saw its first tie in four years as neither team did much in overtime. Now the rematch takes place with the 49ers starting Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith as Jim Harbough rides the "hot hand" as he put it. Kaepernick has been remarkable in his two starts though and deserves the opportunity provided.
The Rams have played better since the return of Danny Amendola, but are still suspect when it comes to consistency on offense. Sam Bradford is still trying to prove that he is a worthy starting quarterback, and while Stephen Jackson has continued to run effectively, one has to wonder how much longer the Rams will hold on to him. The Rams have shown some improvement, but still have room to grow. I think it'll be competitive, but the 49ers have a lot at stake and the defense is going to want to atone for its performance earlier in the season.
Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 23
New England (8-3) at Miami (5-6) - 1pm CBS
As much as I don't want to, I have to give the Patriots credit. They overcame a rough stretch early in the season and now are pretty much in control of the AFC East. In fact, Miami is the only team within any kind of shouting distance, which means a win over the Dolphins would all but assure the Patriots of a divisional title. Aaron Hernandez's return last week made the loss of Rob Gronkowski much easier to bear, as did getting to face the Jets.
The Dolphins have a potentially bright future with Ryan Tannehill. He's looked like a rookie at times, but at other times, he's looked like a 10 year veteran with how he led the offense. Unfortunately for him, Bill Belichick has a way of making rookie quarterbacks look bad. Ask Andrew Luck how his first performance against the Patriots went. The Dolphins are feisty, but the Patriots should come away with a win.
Pick: Patriots 34, Dolphins 21
Arizona (4-7) at NY Jets (4-7) - 1pm FOX
At one point, the Cardinals were 4-0 and the talk of the NFL. Then reality hit, hit them again, and kick salt on the wound for good measure. Seven losses and three quarterbacks later, the Cardinals are reeling. But they got Beanie Wells back last week! Yeah, the rest of the season is going to be long for this franchise, which with a few exceptions, has seen this script far too often.
The Jets are a train wreck. They forgot to show up against the Patriots and pretty much punched their ticket to the April draft. In showing no resistance, they surrendered 49 points and the home crowd was cheering for Tim Tebow by halftime despite Mark Sanchez not really having a chance. There's a chance for some redemption this week as they go up against an equally inept team, but it'll be closer than most would like.
Pick: Jets 17, Cardinals 12
Tampa Bay (6-5) at Denver (8-3) - 4:05pm FOX
The Buccaneers are a tough bunch to get past. They fought to the final gun against the Falcons, falling just short in the end. They're in virtually every game and are in position for a playoff spot if they can keep winning. The offense works best when it's in hurry up mode, but it seems Greg Schiano is reluctant to go to it more often. They need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive, but it's going to be tough.
The Broncos have been playing as well as anyone the last several weeks. Peyton Manning has been in complete control since struggling earlier in the season and the defense has stepped up tremendously as well. A win at home will virtually assure them of the divisional crown in a very poor AFC West, but it's almost a given they'll clinch at some point. This could be one of the more exciting games of the week though.
Pick: Broncos 24, Buccaneers 20
Cincinnati (6-5) at San Diego (4-7) - 4:25pm CBS
The Bengals need a win to keep their wild card hopes alive. The Chargers need a win just to remind their fans of what it's like to win a game. Guess what I think is going to happen? The Bengals have been playing well of late and get to play a Chargers team that has just completely fallen apart. If Andy Dalton plays up to his abilities, this will be over by halftime. Then again, the Bengals tend to falter at the worst times.
Pick: Bengals 17, Chargers 10
Pittsburgh (6-5) at Baltimore (9-2) - 4:25pm CBS
The Steelers suffered a big hit to their playoff hopes when they lost to the Browns last week. The excuses came flying from the fanbase, but coach Mike Tomlin made it clear that the problem was obviously turning the ball over 8 times. 5 fumbles and 3 interceptions are hard to overcome, especially when your quarterback is your third stringer. Now they travel to Baltimore where the Ravens are incredibly tough to beat with a less than 50% chance of Ben Roethlisberger playing.
The Ravens are missing pieces on defense, but have managed to get 12 sacks in the last three games. That number figures to rise against a porous and banged up Steelers line that was abused by the Browns front four last week. Now comes news that Ray Lewis may return during the regular season, the growing legend of Ray Rice's run last week, and Terrell Suggs getting healthier.
Philadelphia (3-8) at Dallas (5-6) - 8:20pm NBC
The Eagles' season is officially over. Jason Babin, the sacks leader from a year ago, was released this week. DeSean Jackson has been shut down for the year. The so-called Dream Team, the dynasty that Michael Vick predicted, all the aspirations that the Eagles had after splurging in free agency, none of it matters now. The Eagles may win a game or two down the stretch, but it's hard to imagine when at this point.
The Cowboys are so overrated it isn't even funny. They follow up barely beating the Browns by allowing the Redskins to get a huge lead, then try to fight back but fall just short. Tony Romo is capable of big plays, but he's also capable of big clunkers. However, the Eagles aren't very good.
Pick: Cowboys 26, Eagles 13
Monday
NY Giants (7-4) at Washington (5-6) - 8:30pm ESPN
The Giants suddenly got their mojo back last week, thumping the Packers behind a renewed defensive effort and the return of the elite Eli Manning, who had gone M.I.A. during the recent losing streak. They now travel to Washington, D.C., to face an exciting Redskins team that is still holding out hope for a playoff berth. This could get interesting.
Robert Griffin III has made serious noise in the rookie of the year debate, especially after his performance last week in Dallas. A win at home over the Giants would be a huge boost to his campaign, plus a help to the Redskins playoff chances. Unfortunately, their defense isn't that good and I have a feeling Manning is going to shred them.
Pick: Giants 31, Redskins 27
The Browns Game
Cleveland (3-8) at Oakland (3-8) - 4:25pm CBS
The Browns needed their victory over the Steelers, not just to hold off the naysayers, but to give their morale a boost. It helped that it was against the Steelers, but the win came with plenty of questions as the offensive failed to capitalize on several turnover opportunities. Brandon Weeden threw a touchdown pass, but he was erratic with his throws and ultimately suffered a mild concussion. He's been cleared to play and the Browns will need him to be more accurate this week. It helps going against the porous Raiders defense though.
The Raiders are stumbling, having been blown out two straight weeks. They hope to have Darren McFadden back, but I'm not sure how much that will help given he doesn't play defense, but it may spark the team a bit. Unfortunately, the Raiders are awful on defense. They give up big plays and often seem out of position. If the Browns offense gets going in any way shape or form, it could be a rough day for the Raiders given the improvement the Browns have shown defensively.
Pick: Browns 26, Raiders 17
Last: 11-3
Overall: 92-32-1
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