I know this is a day late, but I forgot to publish the post prior to the Thursday night game. Because of that, I will not count the result of that pick in next week's column.
The NFL is a fun league. Each week there are surprises in how the games turn out. For example, did anything think the Bengals were going to manhandle the Giants, or that the Titans would only allow 3 points? Did anyone think we'd have a tie between the Rams and 49ers? I bet few thought that the Falcons would lose to the Saints (nailed that one).
I bet few predicted those outcomes, but that's what happened. Oh sure, there were expected results, but in some games, the expected results were still mildly surprising, such as the Steelers struggling against the Chiefs, the rain wreaking all kinds of problems in Chicago, and the Raiders losing as badly as they did to a depleted Ravens team.
This week, there are guaranteed to be more surprises, but the trick is picking the right ones. Part of me wanted to pick the Colts to beat the Patriots, but in Foxboro, it was just too hard to go with that one. Likewise with the Ravens/Steelers game. Sure, it's in Pittsburgh, but with Ben Roethlisberger nursing a dangerous rib injury, I think it tilts the game in the favor of the Ravens.
As with each previous week, the picks are purely for fun and are NOT to be taken too seriously.
Thursday
Miami (4-5) at Buffalo (3-6) - 8:20 NFL Network
The Dolphins are about as inconsistent as they came. One week they're throttling the Jets, next thing you know they're getting embarrassed by the Titans, at home no less. Ryan Tannehill has been a rookie at times, and at other times he's looked like a veteran. It's going to be cold in Buffalo, so this automatically favors the Bills, right?
Not so fast though. The Bills are a Heckyll and Jyde type of team. They can put up points, but they can give up a bunch as well. They hung in there with the Patriots last week, but couldn't quite make that play to win. I still don't know what Ryan Fitzpatrick was looking at when he threw the pick to essentially end the game. But, it's at home and the Dolphins are coming off a stinker.
Pick: Bills 24, Dolphins 17
EDIT: This game was a stinker, but the Bills pulled it off, right? Figures a special teams play right at the start was the difference.
Sunday
Arizona (4-5) at Arizona (8-1) - 1pm FOX
Sure seems like a long time ago when the Cardinals were 4-0 and the talk of the NFL. Okay, so they weren't really talked about in a positive light, more like "how the hell are they 4-0 with a win over the Patriots?" Since the 4-0 start, they've lost 5 in a row and have looked abysmal doing so. It doesn't get easier, facing the Falcons, in Atlanta, a week removed from their first loss. I don't know that it will be a blood bath, but it won't be pretty.
The Falcons were overdue for a loss. Much like with the Texans, this could serve as a wake-up, a "we need to refocus" kind of moment. The Falcons haven't exactly been dominant, having to hold off rallies in a couple of wins and come from behind in a few as well. I think this is the perfect opportunity to get out of the gate running and then unleash the pass rush against one of the worst offensive lines in recent memory.
Pick: Falcons 31, Cardinals 12
Green Bay (6-3) at Detroit (4-5) - 1pm FOX
The Packers have begun to look more like the team that ran off 15 wins a year ago. The offense has been clicking of late, and the defense has played reasonably well. Now they get to head to Detroit and try to put some distance between themselves and the Lions, who are desperately trying to stay in the wild-card chase.
Speaking of the Lions, I can't figure this team out. It was starting to look like they were getting it together, were facing a Vikings team that was in a little bit of turmoil, and came out and laid an absolute egg. The Vikings owned them all day and I don't know if they can recover from that.
Pick: Packers 34, Lions 28
Cincinnati (4-5) at Kansas City (1-8) - 1pm CBS
The Bengals rescued their playoff hopes with a big victory at home over the Giants. Andy Dalton played his best game as a pro at the best possible time, and as a bonus, they now get the Chiefs who finally led a game in regulation for the first time last week. Unfortunately, they couldn't hold the lead and couldn't take advantage of the Roethlisberger injury either. The Bengals can beat the Giants, they should be able to handle the Chiefs.
But hold on, against the AFC North, the Chiefs have hung in there. They lost 9-6 to the Ravens and 16-13 to the Steelers, both better teams than the Bengals. So there has to be optimism right? I'd love to say so, but the Chiefs are a mess overall. I just don't see enough talent to win this game, unless Dalton reverts to previous 2012 form and throws at least two picks in this game. The Chiefs could hang in there for a bit, but they'll fall short in the end. The real victim? Matt Cassel. Many of his interceptions/fumbles are not directly his fault.
Pick: Bengals 27, Chiefs 20
NY Jets (3-6) at St. Louis (3-6) - 1pm CBS
The Jets are a soap opera, not a professional football team. If Rex Ryan isn't in the news because of a player poll, it's Tim Tebow (thanks ESPN) being called out by teammates who can't be bothered to be identified. The question as to why Tebow was acquired by the Jets remains a good question. If you weren't going to use him, why pick him up? Mark Sanchez hasn't been good at all, so what do you have to lose?
The Rams have the luck of hosting the Jets this week, who have been particularly bad on the road. The Rams got Danny Amendola back last week and he paid immediate dividends. As a result, the Rams were able to hang with the 49ers all the way through overtime in a game where a tie almost felt like a victory.
Pick: Rams 20, Jets 10
Philadelphia (3-6) at Washington (3-6) - 1pm FOX
I'm done picking the Eagles until they win a game. Granted, I picked them to lose last week, but even so, this so-called "dream team" can't get it together and now has Nick Foles taking over until further notice due to Michael Vick's latest injury. The problem continues to be the same for the Eagles regardless of who's at quarterback. Interceptions, fumbles, and questionable playcalling have plagued this team all season. The defense has taken steps back as well.
The Redskins have a bright future. Now right now, as half their defense seems to be out for the year, but going forward there is the feeling that this team could be a threat. Robert Griffin III has been exactly as advertised, but the real surprise has been how well Alfred Morris has run the ball for the Redskins. The Eagles have had issues with the run of late and this could be a point of emphasis for the Redskins.
Pick: Redskins 24, Eagles 16
Tampa Bay (5-4) at Carolina (2-7) - 1pm FOX
The Buccaneers have come on strong of late, led mostly by the running of rookie Doug Martin, who's been the biggest surprise of the year thus far. Josh Freeman has settled down and while he hasn't been spectacular, he's been efficient and has largely avoided big mistakes. The defense has been opportunistic, but they can be scored upon. Is this a let-down game against the Panthers? Maybe.
The Panthers had a tough task ahead of them last week. Coming off their second week, they had to face Peyton Manning and he predictably shredded the Panther defense with ease. They don't have to worry about the same aerial attack this week, but rather the rushing machine that is Doug Martin. Can Cam Newton turn his team's fortunes around this week? It would be a tall task and Newton hasn't exactly been steady.
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 15
Jacksonville (1-8) at Houston (8-1) - 1pm CBS
There is no more lopsided matchup this week. The Jaguars have been, bad, bad, and worse all season long. Their lone win was flukish against the Colts and they haven't been in many games since. Blaine Gabbert has shown little growth, Justin Blackmon has been a huge disappointment, and the injury to Maurice Jones-Drew took out the one consistent weapon the Jags had. Oh, and their defense is bad.
The Texans have been cruising and should continue to cruise. The offense suffered last week, but given the weather in Chicago, it wasn't much of a surprise. What also wasn't a surprise was how dominant the Texans defense was. Other than the game against the Packers, the unit has been outstanding all season long and this shouldn't be much of a test.
Pick: Texans 37, Jaguars 10
New Orleans (4-5) at Oakland (3-6) - 4:05pm FOX
The Saints are a dangerous team. After a rough start, they've won a couple of games in a row and the offense appears to be clicking just in time to face the Raiders, who surrendered 55 points a week ago. Drew Brees has three different running backs to hand off to when he doesn't feel like flinging touchdown passes. The rushing attack being potent seems to have opened things up significantly, and while the defense has still be bad, they're at least making a play or two now.
The Raiders...what a disappointing team. Can you blame Carson Palmer for the mess? Not entirely. As my friend Heny pointed out, Palmer wasn't on the defense that gave up 55 points and he's been able to throw the ball reasonably well, but the Raiders just can't get it together. I don't think much changes this week, although the game will likely be a shootout.
Pick: Saints 41, Raiders 34
San Diego (4-5) at Denver (6-3) - 4:25pm CBS
The Chargers need to win this week or they can almost assuredly kiss their postseason chances goodbye. A win keeps them within a game of the Broncos in a very weak AFC West, but they'll need to get it together quickly for that to happen. The defense has been disappointing, but more disturbing is how Philip Rivers, once considered by some to be in the elite class, has seem to have fallen. You're more likely to see him chewing someone out for a mistake than him celebrating a touchdown anymore.
The Broncos are humming along. Peyton Manning has been fantastic the last several weeks, the defense seems to be on a different level than it was earlier this year, and overall the team seems very balanced. This is a good chance to show that this is the Bronco's division to lose. A win would put them three games up on the Chargers, a near-insurmountable lead.
Pick: Broncos 31, Chargers 23
Indianapolis (6-3) at New England (6-3) - 4:25pm CBS
If the Colts play to their current level, this could be the best game of the day. Andrew Luck has been just as good as many thought he'd be, and in some cases he's been better than expected. The poise he has shown is something you just can't teach. It helps to have Reggie Wayne on the receiving end of many of your passes, but Luck has delivered time and time again. A win against the Patriots in Foxboro would be a great legacy builder.
The Patriots are rolling offensively. Defensively, they're desperate, but they can score with the best of them and Tom Brady seems to have recaptured some of the mojo he appeared to temporarily lost earlier in the season. The Colts will give the Patriots fits, but the experience of Brady should win out in the end of this game.
Pick: Patriots 34, Colts 31
Baltimore (7-2) at Pittsburgh (6-3) - 8:20pm NBC
I had a real tough time with this game when I first saw it on the schedule. Then the Steelers went out and barely beat the Chiefs, losing Roethlisberger in the process. This helps the Ravens tremendously, as they are on the road in this game, something they haven't fared well with this year. Joe Flacco has struggled on the road and he may well struggle again in this game, but the margin for error is greater now. A good idea would be to hand the ball to Ray Rice, then spread the Steelers out defensively.
The Steelers have a tough task ahead of them now. Just as they're getting going, Roethlisberger goes down and now Byron Leftwich is left to manage the offense until Roethlisberger can return. The Steelers can still earn a wild-card birth, but it just became more difficult. A win would significantly boost their divisonal chances though.
Pick: Ravens 20, Steelers 17
Monday
Chicago (7-2) at San Francisco (6-2-1) - 8:30 ESPN
The Bears were going to have a tough time with Jay Cutler having to go against another top-tier defense. Now it gets real interesting with Cutler ruled out. That said, the Bears defense has a chance to step up and shine this week. The 49ers have seemed vulnerable of late and against a tough defense, it's very possible that points will be hard to find. Alex Smith, when healthy, hasn't played that well of late. He's not healthy though.
The 49ers are going to need their defense to step up and possibly get a defensive touchdown for them to win, especially with how often the Bears' defense is able to do that. I just don't see as tough a 49ers team right now as I saw earlier in the year, especially after being played to a tie with the Rams.
Pick: Bears 17, 49ers 13
The Browns Game
Cleveland (2-7) at Dallas (4-5) - 1pm CBS
The Browns are coming off a bye week in which several players became healthier (Phil Taylor, Trent Richardson, Ahtyba Rubin) but suddenly have a new issue with Joe Haden (oblique) with Dmitri Patterson still out. Questions continue to be abundant about Pat Shurmer's future, whether Brandon Weeden is a franchise quarterback, and if Greg Little really has had a breakthrough moment. Now Josh Cribbs is complaining again about his offensive role. This team is a never-ending soap opera at this point that we keep hearing is going to get cleaned up.
The Cowboys needed a victory last week and they got it against an underachieving Eagles team. Now they have to repeat their performance and not let a young franchise in the Browns hang around. Is Tony Romo going to play another clean game, or will he throw interceptions in bunches again? That will be the big factor in whether they win or not. Their defensive front had a field day against a bad Eagles line, but the Browns line is better and will be harder to crack.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Browns 23
Bye
Tennessee, Minnesota, NY Giants, Seattle
Last week: 10-3-1
Overall: 70-27-1
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