Just when you think you have a team figured out, they go out and lay a giant egg at the worst time.
I'm looking squarely at the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, and San Francisco 49ers. For the Giants, it seems Eli Manning is enduring a rough stretch in his career. Discard his big game a week ago, and you see some unflattering numbers going back the last few weeks. Defensively, they've been sound, but the points aren't being scored.
The Ravens had a chance to secure a playoff spot against the Steelers and their third string quarterback, but instead watched Joe Flacco play as poorly as he's played at home ever and completely ignored Ray Rice again, who has to be wondering who he angered on the coaching staff.
The Bears decided that playing defense at the end of a game meant letting Russell Wilson drive down the field, then allow the same in overtime. The 49ers, well, there must be something about the Rams that gives them fits. The game almost ended in a tie, David Akers missed a second potential game-winning field goal, and the Rams were able to get close enough to earn a win.
This week I think the best game, and the toughest to pick, is the Texans-Patriots matchup on Monday Night Football. The Texans are looking to lock up home-field advantage, the Patriots want to secure at least the second seed or better. This could be a fun game. Other than that, there aren't many "I HAVE to watch that game" matchups.
So let's get to it.
Thursday
Denver (9-3) at Oakland (3-9) - 8:20 NFL Network
There were suspicions that the Broncos would be better this year. No one knew what to expect from Peyton Manning, but the thought was if he played anywhere near his previous level, the offense would be explosive. Well, 12 games in, the Broncos have scored 349 points, good for an average of 29 points per game. Manning seems to have complete control over the offense now, and with the defense gelling, this team has become very dangerous.
The Raiders, sadly, have not prospered since trading the farm for Carson Palmer. He hasn't been terrible, but he hasn't been great either. In any case, the real issue has been with the defense. Up until last week's game against the Browns, the Raiders had been historically bad on that side of the ball, and it could've been worse against the Browns if they hadn't picked off Brandon Weeden twice deep in their own end. I want, for a friend's sake, to find reason for the Raiders to win, but it's getting hard. Even if the Broncos rest a bunch of people since the division is already clinched, there's still the possibility of a first round bye on the line for the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 23, Raiders 21
Sunday
St. Louis (5-6-1) at Buffalo (5-7) - 1pm FOX
The Rams refuse to go away. Every time I try to write them off, they pull off some kind of stunner like they did last week against the 49ers. They're playoff chances are slim at best, but they're still there. They aren't wowing anyone with their performances, but the defense has been gritty when it's needed to be and this week it will need to be so again against the occasionally explosive Bills. Can Sam Bradford and this overachieving bunch pull off another one?
The Bills finally put together a complete performance last week. Keep in mind it came against the Jaguars, but it was still the first time the defense and offense had shown up at the same time. The Bills are fighting injuries on the offensive side though and that could make things more challenging than they should be. I want to think the Bills are going to run away with this game, but I have a feeling it's not going to be that way.
Pick: Bills 20, Rams 17
Tennessee (4-8) at Indianapolis (8-4) - 1pm CBS
The Titans did not have a good time against the Texans last week. Jake Locker had a rough outing and the defense put them in a big hole right from the start. They were down 21-3 at the half and never seriously threatened to come back. This game shouldn't be as rough, but I don't think the Titans are going to go into Indy and find a win.
Andrew Luck and RGIII are pretty much going to take the Rookie of the Year race down to the very end. Of late, both have played spectacularly in leading their team to victories in recent weeks. Luck of course mastered the comeback from 12 down in the final five minutes against the Lions, throwing the winning touchdown pass as time expired and outrunning his receiver into the end zone to celebrate. The Colts now get to play at home, where Luck has been at his best. The Colts defense will give up points, but I expect the Colts to outscore the Titans.
Pick: Colts 27, Titans 23
Chicago (8-4) at Minnesota (6-6) - 1pm FOX
Okay Chicago, we're going to try this again. That game last week? Should've won that game, but you let the Seahawks hang around and now you're in a battle with the Packers for the division, a battle you wouldn't be in if you hadn't laid an egg last week or weeks back against the 49ers. Instead, you have to go on the road and win against your divisional rival Vikings, who are reeling as well. Oh, and do it without Brian Urlacher.
The Vikings can run the ball very well. Unfortunately, Christian Ponder is just not a very good quarterback right now. Percy Harvin being out hurts, but this team wasn't lighting up the passing game prior to that either. It does them no good for Adrian Peterson to run for 150+ yards and them not score or win. Of course, last time I counted them out, they surprised me by beating up the Lions.
Pick: Bears 24, Vikings 20
San Diego (4-8) at Pittsburgh (7-5) - 1pm CBS
Here are some facts for Chargers fans: the last time the Chiefs won, it was week 9 against the Chiefs. Before that, it was week 4 again against the Chiefs. After week 4, they were 3-1 and seemed to be in good shape with how the rest of the division was struggling. Then came the meltdown against the Saints, followed by the historic meltdown against the Broncos (up 24-0 at half, lose 35-24), then the season spiraled from there. It's almost a given that Norv Turner will be fired at the end of the season and a retool is going to begin.
The Steelers surprised a number of people by going into Baltimore and winning behing 37 year-old Charlie Batch. Now news has come out that the Steelers will be starting Ben Roethlisberger this week. This is a must-win for the Steelers. The wildcard scenarios are a mess with so many teams vying for the final two spots, one of them being their AFC North rival Bengals. Last week's performance could be a springboard for them and the Chargers are a good team to keep it going against. Winning this game will complete a perfect 4-0 season for the North against the Chiefs.
Pick: Steelers 20, Chargers 6
Philadelphia (3-9) at Tampa Bay (6-6) - 1pm FOX
There was once a time when people thought the Eagles were destined to become the best team in the NFL. Michael Vick had resurrected his career and was ready to become the quarterback every team feared. The defense was going to be top 10 every year, and with DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy, the offense was going to be explosive. Then a funny thing happened. They got off to a terrible start last year, before finally turning it around. This year, they somehow started 3-1, but the turnover machine that is Vick wouldn't let them win again and now Nick Foles is your starting quarterback. Could it get worse? Yes. They fire their defensive coordinator, then their defensive line coach, and release their sack leader from a year ago.
The Bucs were in position to make a run at a wild card spot until they were blown up by the machine that is Peyton Manning and his rebirth tour with the Broncos. Now they need to get a win just to keep hope alive. Luckily, the aforementioned Eagles are reeling, making this a good time to get that win. As long as Josh Freeman plays a good game anyway.
Pick: Buccaneers 31, Eagles 17
Baltimore (9-3) at Washington (6-6) - 1pm CBS
The Ravens literally laid an egg last week against the wounded Steelers, blowing a chance at securing a playoff birth and strengthening their grip on the division. They'll still win the AFC North, but now it appears there are issues with Ravens that have been uncovered to go along with their road woes, such as their inability to give the ball to Ray Rice at key points in the games they've lost. Also, just what is Joe Flacco's issue? One week he's Joe Montana, the next week he can't complete a pass for the life of him.
I was burned by Robert Griffin III and the Redskins last week. I thought for sure they'd lose to the Giants, given the urgency that the Giants displayed a week prior. Sure, RGIII had dismantled the Cowboys, but the Redskins defense nearly gave that one away so I was not sold on them. I'm still not sold, but the Ravens on the road never seems to end well these days and RGIII has a chance to put their playoff plans on hold for another week.
Pick: Redskins 24, Ravens 20
Atlanta (11-1) at Carolina (3-9) - 1pm FOX
Earlier in the season, the Falcons nearly lost to the Panthers. It took a miraculous fumble by Cam Newton followed by the Panthers secondary apparently ignoring the rule that states you don't let a receiver get behind you with a lead when the opposing team is inside their own five yard line with under a minute to go. The Falcons now look to secure their playoff seeding and remind the Panthers how far they really have to go.
It almost isn't fair for Newton and the Panthers. I figured they had a very reasonable chance to go into Kansas City and win on the road, but then the unfortunate murder-suicide happened, the Chiefs players rallied around each other, played inspired football, and came away with their only impressive win of the season thus far. Now the Panthers have to regroup against the NFC's best. It just isn't right. Oh, and they should've won that first meeting.
Pick: Falcons 21, Panthers 20
NY Jets (5-7) at Jacksonville (2-10) - 1pm CBS
The Jets had to turn to their third string quarterback last week and Greg McElroy did what Mark Sanchez couldn't do, and that's complete a throw to one of his teammates, much less for a touchdown. Simply put, I keep writing about how much of a mess the Jets are and each week they prove it further and further again. Last week's game became the most unwatchable game of the year due to two inept offenses who couldn't move the ball at all. Now the Jets get the Jags, a team they should beat. Should. Sanchez is the starter, but how long is the leash now?
The Jaguars looked decent for a couple weeks with Chad Henne as their quarterback, but last week he ran into his old AFC East foe in the Bills and did not play so well. There just must be something about those AFC East teams that cause him trouble. Still, it was a sobering reminder of how dire the Jags quarterback situation is.
Pick: Jets 15, Jaguars 12
Miami (5-7) at San Francisco (8-3-1) - 4:05pm CBS
Here's what we know about the Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill has some potential, but he needs help, Reggie Bush cannot carry the running back load for more than 5 quarters before he disappears for the next 11, Brian Hartline will give you a monster game once every few weeks, and the defense needs some help. Give Tannehill some more pieces then watch out.
The 49ers...ugh...I can't even talk about them. Colin Kaepernick was a nice story until we were reminded that he is indeed a rookie and rookies make bad mistakes at bad times. also, we now know the 49ers just can't beat the Rams. Anywhere. They should win this game, but the quarterback situation will become a distraction if Kaepernick struggles again.
Pick: 49ers 23, Dolphins 17
New Orleans (5-7) at NY Giants (7-5) - 4:25pm FOX
For a while, it looked the Saints were not only going to defy the odds, but Roger Goodell's attempts at banishing them from the face of the NFL. Drew Brees got hot, the defense was able to get a couple of stops a game (as opposed to none in it's horrific start to the season), and there seemed to be an outside chance that the Saints could make an improbable playoff run. Then Brees started throwing picks, the defense stopped stopping people, and those faint playoff hopes are pretty much gone. How much pride do the Saints have?
The Giants are one of the more frustrating teams under Tom Coughlin. They can look like the best team in football for a few weeks, then suddenly disappear for a couple of weeks losing games they shouldn't lose, before reappearing miraculously again. They repeat this process several times throughout the season, making sure their final hot streak occurs right before the playoffs start. They might want to consider starting early with the Cowboys and Redskins right on their heels.
Pick: Giants 34, Saints 31
Arizona (4-8) at Seattle (7-5) - 4:25pm FOX
The Cardinals stink, their line couldn't protect a quarterback from a pack of snails rushing the quarterback, and the defense is gassed. If they win again this year, I'd be shocked. Heck, they couldn't beat the Jets with the Jets only scoring 7 points. How sad is that?
The Seahawks have surprised me. Russell Wilson has surprised me. Marshawn Lynch does not surprise me. However, the toll that will be taken with half their secondary being suspended for PEDs can't be overlooked. Good thing the Cardinals don't have a passing attack to speak of.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 10
Detroit (4-8) at Green Bay (8-4) - 8:20pm NBC
The Lions had a 33-21 lead with less than 5 minutes remaining against the Colts. Their "vaunted" defensive line stopped getting pressure and the Colts scored a touchdown with less than three minutes to go. The Lions didn't need to do much to run out the clock, but weren't able to do anything and a poor punt from Nick Harris allowed the Colts to start from the 25. 1:07 later, the Colts were celebrating and the Lions were trying to figure out how they had blown another fourth quarter lead. They might not have to worry about that though with the Packers.
The Packers have been a strange team. They're 8-4, but feels like they should be 6-6. They haven't really clicked all season long, but Aaron Rodgers keeps throwing touchdown passes and they keep finding a way to win. Now, with the Bears struggling, the Packers have a chance to get the NFC North title. They'd love to take that first step against the struggling Lions.
Pick: Packers 38, Lions 30
Monday
Houston (11-1) at New England (9-3) - 8:30pm ESPN
The Texans have been the most consistent team in football this year. Other than a bad game against the Packers and their defense taking the weekend off against the Jaguars, they've been solid on both sides of the ball in just about every game. Last week's game against the Titans was over before the first quarter was done, and that was with minimal effort. This game won't be so easy.
The Patriots wrapped up the division, but now have their eyes on securing a high seed for their playoff push. This game means more to them than the Texans for that reason alone. That and Bill Belichick will want to make a point that the Patriots aren't that far from the Texans in how good they are. Oh, and it's at Foxboro, thus giving the slight edge to the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots 27, Texans 24
The Browns Game
Kansas City (2-10) at Cleveland (4-8) - 1pm CBS
The Chiefs rallied around each other after the tragedy that fell upon them when it was learned that Jovan Belcher had killed his girlfriend, then killed himself the day before their game against the Panthers. The result was inspired play and an unexpected victory from a team that had underachieved all season long. Now they take their show to Cleveland, who is starting to show signs of growing up. Of course, it wouldn't be a game without stories of Peyton Hillis' return, as well as former coach Romeo Crennel and quarterback Brady Quinn. The Chiefs rode the wave of their emotions last week, can they do it again?
It'll be harder just because the Browns defense is better than the Panthers, especially up front and in the secondary (hard to believe, right). For the first time all season, Dick Jauron is expected to have his entire secondary healthy, which coupled with a healthy front four could make things tough on the Chiefs offense. The Browns offense, which hasn't scored a ton of points, has still moved the ball relatively well of late and should be able to get good yardage against the Chiefs. Hillis may be amped up to face his former team, but Hillis doesn't get a ton of carries to begin with. If the Browns offense can get going early, this game could be over quickly, something we're not accustomed to seeing around here.
Pick: Browns 27, Chiefs 20
Last: 11-5
Overall: 103-37-1
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