I knew the picks weren't going to go well this week when Tennessee upset the Steelers on Thursday Night Football.
Then when the Browns won, I should've known things were really going to be screwy (yes, I picked the Browns, but it was simply because it seemed like the first real winnable game in a while). Even so, it seemed like I was going to be okay with the afternoon picks, in which I went 5-2.
Then the afternoon games came along. Of course I nailed it with the Buffalo-Arizona game, but that was it for the day. I missed on all the rest of the afternoon games and the Sunday Night game as well (really Houston?). If not for Peyton Manning going bonkers in the second half against the Chargers, I would've finished 6-8.
This shows us a couple of things. One, the NFL is wildly unpredictable. Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Houston seemed like sure picks. Even the San Francisco pick seemed a safe bet. Then they laid the 3 point egg at home against a suddenly surging Giants team. Two, any team can sneak up and get a win. The Jets were dead and buried with a horrible rushing attack. Naturally Shone Greene sets a career high in yards against the Colts, who had been riding high after their emotional win over the Packers. New England should've won on the road, but somehow couldn't hold a fourth quarter lead (a suddenly recurring problem for the Pats).
How do you recover from that kind of week? By going out and confidently picking several games again. This week offers several tantalizing matchups, starting with tomorrow night's NFC West showdown in the Bay. Who knew that three teams would be tied at 4-2 going into week 7? Did you?
I doubt it. I did too. But that's the scenario playing out this weekend.
So without any more delays, let's get on with the picks.
Thursday
Seattle (4-2) at San Francisco (4-2) - 8:20pm NFL Network
Who knew that these two teams would be in a three-way tie atop the division? Who knew the Seahawks would beat the Cowboys, Packers (disputed!), and Patriots? Who knew that the 49ers would lose to the Vikings (another surprise team) and get routed by the Giants last week?
The Seahawks are certainly an intriguing team. They have an outstanding defense, a solid running game, and a rookie quarterback making just enough plays to win from week to week. Russell Wilson burned the Patriots defense twice in the second half in their comeback win against the Pats, but it will be tougher sledding this week.
The 49ers are peeved at the whooping they received. The vaunted defense was shredded, their offensive line ripped apart by the four-man Giants pass-rush, and Alex Smith threw three picks in the loss. The Seahawks will be a tough follow-up, but at least it's at home and not in Seattle, where the stadium noise plays a huge factor in each game. I think this is a bounce-back week for the Niners.
Pick: 49ers 24, Seahawks 16
Sunday
Tennessee (2-4) at Buffalo (3-3) - 1pm CBS
The Titans surprised everyone but themselves in beating the Steelers last week. Then again, the Steelers defense is banged-up, their offensive line was completely decimated with injuries, and the Titans took advantage of every opportunity handed to them. Matt Hasselbeck is still the starter while Jake Locker continues to recover, and his age has shown at times. It's going to take another monster effort to win this week.
The Bills befuddle me. They look absolutely brilliant in their wins, and completely dreadful in their losses. Last week, the defense dominated the Cardinals like most thought it would all year. Mario Williams picked up two sacks, which was more than he had in the previous five games combined. What will happen this week? Well, they're at home, which helps, and they're facing a team that has been just as inconsistent. Do the Bills still remember the Music City Miracle? I think some payback is in order.
Pick: Bills 30, Titans 17
Green Bay (3-3) at St. Louis (3-3) - 1pm FOX
The Packers at one point were the talk of the NFL. Aaron Rodgers couldn't be stopped and while the defense was bad, it was just assumed they'd outscore everyone. Then they were upset in the playoffs and it's been downhill since. Yes, Rodgers was dominant against the Texans last week (who really saw that outcome coming), but the defense remains suspect and if the offense isn't clicking, the Packers are in trouble.
Lucky for the Pack, they get a wounded Rams team that can run the ball, but that's been about it of late. Sam Bradford just hasn't shown a lot of growth since he's come into the league, and with limited weapons around him, doesn't appear to have the help needed as well. The Rams defense has played admirably, but can't do it all themselves. Unless the D makes a few big plays, this game isn't going to end well for the home team.
Pick: Packers 31, Rams 13
Arizona (4-2) at Minnesota (4-2) - 1pm FOX
Go ahead, tell me that you knew that these two teams would be 4-2 going into this game, in good position to win their division? No one saw this coming, but one team seems a lot better than the other.
The Cardinals just might be the worst 4-2 team in the history of the NFL. Kevin Kolb is once again out for the count after getting sacked 5 more times by the Bills defense. In steps John Skelton, who's only marginally better (or worse depending on your perspective), behind the same shaky line, against a team featuring Jared Allen. Long day coming? Most likely. I'm pretty sure the Cardinals offensive linemen think they're bullfighters most of the time.
The Vikings stumbled last week, but I'm willing to forgive that misstep against a up-and-coming Redskins team. Christian Ponder finally threw a pick, but that shouldn't take away from the job he's done this season. Having a healthy Adrian Peterson has helped, but Ponder has largely avoided the mistakes that plagued his rookie campaign. I think a home game is just what the Vikings ordered.
Pick: Vikings 27, Cardinals 10
Washington (3-3) at New York Giants (4-2) - 1pm FOX
Robert Griffin III is one fast dude. He showed that on his gallop to the endzone last week against the Vikings, who were unable to contain RGIII and his running ability. The 'Skins still have questions on defense, which is where they're likely going to be hurt this week.
The Giants are on some kind of roll. After spotting the Browns a 14-0 first-quarter lead two weeks ago, they've outscored their opponents 67-16. Eli Manning needs to be in the discussion as one of the best quarterbacks of this generation with how he's played the last few years and this week should be a continuation of that. The defense also gets to see how it performs against RGIII and his ability to run as well as throw. I think the Giants will continue to roll though. They want to expand on their divisional lead.
Pick: Giants 27, Redskins 20
New Orleans (1-4) at Tampa Bay (2-3) - 1pm FOX
The Saints have been handed a bad deck this season. The bounty-gate scandal just won't die, and it took far longer than expected to get their first win. Drew Brees has been as good as ever, but the defense has been bad to awful most of the year. It took a record-setting performance by Brees to earn the first win and it's going to take that kind of effort each week with how the defense has underperformed. Maybe Gregg Williams made that much of a difference after all.
The Buccaneers earned a dominating victory over the hapless Chiefs last week. They had control from beginning to end and completely manhandled the arrowheads on both sides of the ball. Josh Freeman is as confusing a quarterback as there is in the league. His rookie season was full of upside, then he hit some roadbumps even up until a couple of weeks ago. Last week he put it all together again though and we saw how good the Bucs could be at times. I want to pick them this week, but something tells me the bad Josh is going to rear its ugly head this week.
Pick: Saints 34, Buccaneers 28
Dallas (2-3) at Carolina (1-4) - 1pm FOX
No team irritates me as much as the Cowboys. I'm putting that disclaimer out there right now. Every year is going to be their breakout year, every year they pick up a surprisingly good win, then the wheels fall-off, Tony Romo looks shell-shocked, and Jerry Jones looks like he's going to personally give everyone on the team an enema. This year has followed that mold perfectly. They started with a win over the Giants, then followed that up with a no-show at Seattle. Last week they fought tooth and nail with the Ravens, but fell short due to some questionable decisions at the end by coach Jason Garrett. Garrett has to get a win this week or fall further into the Jerry Jones pit of despair.
The Panthers, I can't figure them or Cam Newton out. Newton set the world on fire last year, setting records and giving Panthers reason to believe they were getting better. This year all we hear about is his body language. That's not a good thing. Newton needs to get it together soon or this season won't just be lost, it will be a painful loss filled with questions about Newton's ability. Unfortunately, I don't think it gets better this week.
Pick: Cowboys 26, Panthers 17
Baltimore (5-1) at Houston (5-1) - 1pm CBS
The Ravens are flirting with disaster. They're 5-1, but I don't think they're as good as their record indicates. The win against the Browns was close, they needed a comeback to beat the Patriots, they held on for dear life against the Cowboys, and now have lost Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb for the year while Haloti Ngata battles an injury. Now Ed Reeves is saying he had a torn labrum. The defense wasn't that good before these latest injuries hit, now they have to pull together or this season could capsize on them. Luckily, Joe Flacco and Ray Rice have carried the team and will have to pick up even more of the burden this week. And after I started writing this, news came out that Terrell Suggs is going to play this weekend, much to everyone's surprise.
The Texans were embarrassed last week by the Packers. Widely considered the best team in the NFL, they played their first game without stud linebacker Brian Cushing like the entire defense went down (aside from JJ Watt, who continues to impress) with him. Matt Schaub and the offense also struggled early on against a subpar defense and didn't get it together until it was too late. They need to play angry and show some resolve if they want to regain "best team" status. I think they start this week against the depleted Ravens.
Pick: Texans 24, Ravens 20
Jacksonville (1-4) at Oakland (1-4) - 4:25pm CBS
This game should be blacked out just to spare everyone the debacle of watching Blaine Gabbert try to complete a pass and Carson Palmer overthrow another receiver. Seriously, the Jaguars are bad. The 45-3 pasting they received from the Bears two weeks ago showed just how far they still have to go on both sides of the ball. I can't even talk about them without feeling queasy.
Meanwhile, the Raiders ransomed the farm to get Palmer, who's done nothing but underachieve since putting on the silver and black uniform. Even when he plays well, he still throws at least a couple of interceptions, and his last game was not a good performance at all. He and the rest of the Raiders need a serious pick-me-up and the Jaguars are the perfect team to get it with.
Pick: Raiders 33, Jaguars 7
New York Jets (3-3) at New England (3-3) - 4:25pm CBS
This game is being billed as the game of the week, but I'm not buying. Neither team is as good as advertised, and I have no idea how the Jets have managed three wins, much less any. Last week was a welcome sight as the running game finally got on track, but Mark Sanchez still looks lost, too many people are clamoring for Tim Tebow (really? Still?), and Rex Ryan is more than likely out unless there's a major turnaround. Have I mentioned the defense? Yeah, there's good reason for that as well.
The Patriots...they should be 5-1. They could be 6-0. Instead, they're 3-3 and dangerously close to seeing their season collapse around them. In years past, it was almost a given that Tom Brady would bring the Pats back from certain defeat. This year? They missed a field goal that would've beaten the Cardinals, they blew a late lead against the Ravens, and the secondary apparently wasn't ready for long throws in obvious passing situations in last week's loss to the Seahawks. I had a lot of trouble with this one, but since choosing a bomb detonation isn't an option, I'll give the slight edge to the Patriots just because I can't stand the Jets more.
Pick: Patriots 17, Jets 16
Pittsburgh (2-3) at Cincinnati (3-3) - 8:30pm NBC
This game would have a lot more intrigue to it if the Steelers still had offensive linemen in reserve, if Troy Polamalu was suiting up, if James Harrison hadn't admitted to receiving multiple concussions over the course of his career, and if the Steelers running backs weren't dropping like flies. Instead, the Steelers are wounded, but a divisional game could be what the doctor ordered, right?
The Bengals have lost two straight to the Dolphins and previously winless Browns. Now they get the Steelers, which means we could be in for a good, old-fashioned slugfest. I want to think the Steelers will pull this one out and rescue their poor playoff chances, but they're just too injured and the Bengals should be motivated to get a win. They're too talented to lose three in a row, right?
Pick: Bengals 23, Steelers 21
Monday
Detroit (2-3) at Chicago (4-1) - 8:30pm ESPN
The Lions needed that victory over the Eagles after underachieving through the first five weeks of the season. Another loss would've certainly doomed their already slim playoff chances and they're going to need another one this week to keep them alive going forward. Unfortunately, they're going up a Bears defense that has been smothering teams thus far. I don't think there will be multiple defensive touchdowns as in previous weeks, but Matt Stafford is going to have a tough time this week.
The Bears have been winning with their defense first and foremost. Jay Cutler hasn't been heard from since his infamous outburst against his offensive lineman and that's considered a good thing. The Bears have been getting by primarily with defense, but Cutler has made enough plays to sustain the energy provided by the defense. I don't think he's going to have a big game, but as long as he avoids silly mistakes, the Bears should win this game. Yes, I think the Lions are that overrated.
Pick: Bears 27, Lions 14
Cleveland (1-5) at Indianapolis (2-3) - 1pm CBS
The Colts surprised everyone by beating the Packers two weeks ago after it was announced their head coach has leukemia. How did they follow that up? By laying an egg against the Jets. Meanwhile in the Browns picked up their first win of the season against the Bengals. These two teams are both on the rebuilding path, but most would think the Colts will progress faster simply based upon Andrew Luck's pedigree.
I don't buy into that too much, although the Browns are likely going to have new management next season now that Jimmy Haslam is the owner. Mike Holmgren is out, Tom Heckert is most likely out, and Pat Shurmer might be following him as well. Luckily, whoever comes in will have a fairly solid core in place on both sides of the ball, not that I'm in favor of blowing it all up. Last week was a solid example of what could be on the way.
Brandon Weeden had perhaps his best overall game as a pro. He was 17-29 for 231 yards, one interception, and two touchdowns, including the 71 yarder to Josh Gordon, who has suddenly emerged as a deep threat in the two games he's played. Opposite him, Greg Little had a couple of nice catches, Montario Hardesty ran hard in place of injured Trent Richardson (expected to play this week), and Joe Haden provided a huge lift for the defense. D'Qwell Jackson and the defense limited the Bengals to 76 yards rushing and while Andy Dalton put up big numbers again, they picked him off three times, including Sheldon Brown's pick six for 19 yards. Can they make it two wins in a row? I think so.
The Colts have shown glimpses of being a good team, but have been wildly inconsistent. They were blown out by the Bears in their opener, beat a good Vikings team, somehow lost to the Jaguars, surprised everyone by beating the Packers, then decided not to show up against the Jets. So which team will show up this week? The team that beat the Packers, or the team that lost to the Jags? Run defense will be key for them. If they can stop Trent Richardson and Montario Hardesty, they'll be in good shape. Conversely, Andrew Luck needs to make some plays through the air and keep the ball moving. Unfortunately, I think the Browns will play inspired and come away with a second win.
Pick: Browns 30, Colts 23
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