Last week was a good week for The Sports Mixer. If not for upsets by Indianapolis and Miami, it would've been a perfect record for picks. Instead, Green Bay's defense reverted to 2011 form, allowing Andrew Luck and the Colts to score at will while the Miami Dolphin defense harrassed Andy Dalton all game long.
By this point, the contenders should be able to separate themselves from pretenders, giving us a good read on what the playoff set-up should look like. This year though is a little odd. Minnesota and Arizona are two teams at 4-1 that no one could've predicted, meanwhile the New Orleans Saints are 1-4 and needed a special night from Drew Brees to escape with a win. I feel better about Minnesota than I do Arizona (I just can't trust them for some reason), but I would feel even better if the Vikings get a couple of more divisional wins first.
Philadelphia is another team that I can't take seriously. The defense is great, but Michael Vick is wearing thin on fans of the Eagles with his inability to hold on to the ball. St. Louis and Seattle aren't real viable options either. The Rams just lost their best playmaker for six weeks and the Seahawks have been getting by with their defense. Neither is going to supplant the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West, although that division appears to be stronger for the first time in a long time. Again, divisional play will probably sort out that mess.
Another team that doesn't make me feel good is the Cincinnati Bengals. Even before the loss to the Dolphins, they had been thriving on the lesser teams while losing to the Ravens on opening day in embarrassing fashion. Sure, 3-2 is a nice start, but until they beat a team with a winning record, I can't take them seriously.
As far as contenders go, Atlanta, Baltimore, New England, New York Giants, San Francisco, and Houston are teams that I consider legitimate teams to watch. San Diego could make this list if they rack up a couple of solid wins, but losing to a winless Saints team hurt their status as a potential contender.
There are teams that could go either way at this point. Pittsburgh has been beset by injuries, Dallas can't decide which team will show up, and Green Bay has been a big disappointment overall. Anyone else, well, you aren't good enough to even be mentioned at this point or in the case of the Colts, are on the upswing but will probably fall short.
This week is a little more challenging to pick. Two unbeatens remain but only one faces a team that could be a considerable challenge. For some reason, I found this week's games tougher to pick just because some of the match-ups are unique. So take these with a grain of salt as I hope for at least a .500 finish this time.
Thursday
Pittsburgh (2-2) at Tennessee (1-4) - 8:20pm NFL Network
The Steelers earned a hard-fought, gritty win against the Eagles last week. Offensively, they continue to look challenged, although the return of Rashard Mendenhall was boost to an anemic rushing attack. Ben Roethlisberger made just enough plays to get the win while the Steelers defense forced Michael Vick to fumble twice, once into the end zone as the Eagles were driving. It was sloppy, but it was a win.
The Titans are a mess. If Chris Johnson isn't complaining about the offensive line not creating rushing lanes, the defense is getting shredded. Last week the Vikings took their turn against the Titans and put up 30 points on the beleaguered unit. Losing Jack Locker hurt, but regardless of who's at quarterback, if Johnson isn't running hard and effectively, the Titans are in trouble and teams know that. Simply put, they don't stand much of a chance against anyone at this point.
Pick: Steelers 17, Titans 6
Sunday
Oakland (1-3) at Atlanta (5-0) - 1pm CBS
The Raiders, well, they aren't very good. They had a solid win over the Steelers, then followed it up with an absolute stinker against the rival Broncos. They couldn't do anything right on offense or defense and this week doesn't get any easier against the Falcons. The Raiders are going to have to shore up their defense in a hurry or risk getting blitzed by Matt Ryan. The Raiders need a bounce-back win in a bad way or risk the season completely getting out of control.
The Falcons need to come out strong this week. They've been lackluster the last two weeks, yet have come up with wins. Last week they had to rally against the Redskins, who had lost Robert Griffin III to a concussion. The week before they had to rally against a determined Panthers team and were the benefit of a late fumble by Cam Newton. The game is at home, so that should present an advantage, but the Falcons are due to slip-up soon.
Pick: Falcons 27, Raiders 20
St. Louis (3-2) at Miami (2-3) - 1pm FOX
The Rams played an ugly game against the Cardinals last Thursday night, make no mistake about it. Yes, Sam Bradford threw two touchdown passes, but he only completed 7-21 passes overall and the offense just seemed like a giant mess most of the night. The defense played inspired against the Cardinals, but it didn't hurt that the Cardinals' offensive line is atrocious at best. Stephen Jackson ran hard and could be the best weapon the Rams have going forward, especially given the injury to Danny Amendola, who will be out for six weeks.
The Dolphins finally won a close game against the Bengals, surprising even the Sports Mixer, who had picked the Bengals. The offense played mistake-free, especially Ryan Tannehill, who didn't put up spectacular numbers, but avoided the interception bug. The defense held a potent Bengals offense to 13 points, harrassed Andy Dalton, and kept the rushing attack in check. Now they come back home to face a depleted Rams team and gain more confidence.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Rams 10
Indianapolis (2-2) at New York Jets (2-3) - 1pm CBS
The Colts have surprised some with their play this season. Sure, there was that weird loss to the Jaguars, but they've played well for the most part, pulling together last week for a wild win over the Packers after it was announced their coach was battling leukemia. Chuck Pagano urged his team to play to win, not for him, but Andrew Luck and Reggie Wayne both played for more than that as they put up huge numbers to help overcome the Packers at home. Luck has been as advertised, and while the Colts still need work, it appears their future is again bright.
The Jets finally showed up and fought last Monday night against the Texans, but still came up short to continue their slide. It was an improvement over the drubbing they took at the hands at the 49ers, but it was still a loss in which Mark Sanchez struggled again, Tim Tebow didn't do much, and they still have no running game whatsoever. The Rex Ryan show is wearing thin in New York and it won't get better this week.
Pick: Colts 23, Jets 13
Detroit (1-3) at Philadelphia (3-2) - 1pm FOX
The Lions are as a big a disappointment in the NFL as any team. After making the playoffs a year ago, expectations were high. A high-octane offense led by Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson was supposed to be supplemented by a tough defense. Instead, the offense has sputtered, the defense has stunk it up, and the team has made more news with off-the-field incidents than how it's played on the field. Very few are now talking playoffs with this team unless the front four get it together on defense and the offense can find some balance. How they respond this week against the Eagles will tell us all a lot about this team going forward.
The Eagles had been pushing their luck all season and last week it caught up to them. Michael Vick has been a fumbling machine, losing two more against the Steelers, and the offense just isn't making big plays like most thought it could. It just seems like Vick isn't cut out to be a good quarterback anymore, which makes picking this game tough. I like the Eagles defense a lot. They get after the quarterback, stop the run, and cover fairly well. If they got a little bit more help from the offense, they would be 5-0 with no questions being asked about how good they are. Instead, they've been lucky to go 3-2. I think it'll be a close game with the Lions and the Eagles defense will have to make a play.
Pick: Eagles 16, Lions 13
Kansas City (1-4) at Tampa Bay (1-3) - 1pm CBS
The Chiefs are a disaster right now. They're paying $3 million for Peyton Hillis to recover from another injury, Matt Cassel was knocked out of last week's game and cheered, and his replacement, Brady Quinn (yes, him), is being hailed as the better quarterback. Here, we know what Quinn is capable of. We saw it in Cleveland for years. He is no savior and the Chiefs are in trouble regardless of who plays quarterback. It's a shame too, since Jamaal Charles is such a dynamic playmaker at running back. He picked up well over 100 yards on the Ravens, who the Chiefs hung in there against. Defensively, they've been up and down. Last week was a good week for them, but they've played poorly at other times as well.
The Bucs are a tough team to figure out. Josh Freeman can look awful for two quarters, then suddenly light it up when least expected. They fought to the finish against the Giants, falling short late, and have had an extra week to prepare for this game. At home, against a struggling franchise, I like their chances of picking up a win and getting some traction in the right direction.
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Chiefs 10
Dallas (2-2) at Baltimore (4-1) - 1pm FOX
In this corner's opinion, Tony Romo is one of the most overrated quarterbacks of this generation. He puts up big numbers when it least matters and wilts when it matters most. I just have not been impressed with, nor have I been impressed with the collection of players around him. Jason Whitten is his most reliable target as Dez Bryant can't seem to grow up at this point in time. Couple that with an underachieving defense, and you can see why they disappoint week after week. How they beat the Giants in week one is a mystery still.
The Ravens have to drive their fans crazy. They dominated the Bengals in week one, but have struggled against lesser teams, hanging on to beat both the Browns and Chiefs. The offense moves the ball, but seems to struggle with getting in the end zone at times. The defense finally showed signs of its former dominant self last week, just in time for the offense to go south. I expect them to show up full force this week though. At home, against the Cowboys, they should turn it up a notch and come away with a fairly easy win.
Pick: Ravens 31, Cowboys 17
Buffalo (2-3) at Arizona (4-1) - 4:05pm CBS
The Bills need a boost and badly. CJ Spiller hasn't looked the same since hurting his shoulder against the Browns in week three, the offense has mostly sputtered since the second half of the Patriots game, and the defense? Well how does getting outscored 97-31 sound? That's after leading the Patriots 21-7 two weeks ago. Since then they've been outscored 90-10 and were never in last week's game against the 49ers. Mario Williams and the defense were recently called out by the team as underperforming and with good reason. Aside from two games, they've been torched.
The Cardinals came crashing back down to Earth last week, literally at times. Kevin Kolb was sacked 9 times by the Rams and the offense could only muster 3 points. The defense played well enough, but gave up two big plays that effectively doomed the team. They need a boost on the offensive line and they need it soon, otherwise they'll be hunting for quarterbacks. The line is simply that bad. This could be a breakout game for the Bills' front four, the game that management envisioned when it signed Williams to the huge contract.
Pick: Bills 24, Cardinals 17
New England (3-2) at Seattle (3-2) - 4:05pm CBS
The Patriots seemed to have recovered from their early season losses to the Cardinals and Ravens to post wins over the Bills and Broncos. The defense has been stout when it's had to be, although they've given up some big plays as well. Offensively, they seem to have regained their rhythm after initially struggling after losing Rob Gronkowski briefly and now Aaron Hernandez. Tom Brady now sets his sights on the Seahawks defense, which is the strength of the team. Can he pick them apart and move the ball? This corner thinks so.
The Seahawks should be 2-3, but thanks to the replacement refs and a tough defense, they're 3-2 and staying close to the 49ers and Cardinals in a tough NFC West (which should sort itself out relatively soon). The Hawks defense is one of the best in the league, a primary reason they've been close in all their games even though Russel Wilson has struggled at times as a rookie. That said, 3-2 with a rookie quarterback is reason for Seahawks fans to be optimistic about their team. Is Wilson going to be a great quarterback? I think the potential is there, but he needs to settle down some. He seems jumpy in the pocket, like he's ready to take off running even when it's not necessary. I think this week the Hawks will hang in there, but ultimately the better quarterback will win.
Pick: Patriots 27, Seahawks 17
New York Giants (3-2) at San Francisco (4-1) - 4:25pm FOX
The Giants have put up a lot of points at times this season, but the defense still leaves something to desire. They fell behind 14-0 to the Browns before finally coming to life, partly due to some poor decisions by Brandon Weeden. In the end, they won, but it shouldn't have reassured Giants fans much. The front four was held without a sack again, the defense was suspect at times against the Browns young offense, and special teams were regularly gashed. On the other hand, Eli Manning looked as in-control as he has all season, Ahmad Bradshaw ran as hard as he has all season, and they should get some of their weapons back soon.
The problem is, they face a very good 49ers team that absolutely mauled the Bills last week. Alex Smith is as confident a quarterback as any in this league, Frank Gore has run the ball well, and we all know how good that defense is. This used to be the premiere match-up in the NFL in the late 80's and early 90's, and I think it's getting back to that point again. The 49ers are the toughest team the Giants have faced so far and I give the edge to the home team with a very physical defense. Manning could have a rough day ahead of him.
Pick: 49ers 24, Giants 13
Minnesota (4-1) at Washington (2-3) - 4:25pm FOX
The Vikings are the biggest surprise of the young season. Christian Ponder has greatly benefited from the return of Adrian Peterson and the surge from Percy Harvin, who ran wild all over the field last week against the Titans. Is the offense that explosive? No, but it's efficient and plays relatively mistake-free, allowing the defense to rear back and attack opponents relentlessly. This team has shown the most improvement from last season and I don't think it slows down this week.
The Redskins are a battered team. They were like that before Robert Griffin III went out with a concussion last week (on a hit that should get at least a fine by the way). The defense was already hit with injuries, and Griffin possibly being out is a scary proposition for the Redskins, especially after the way Kirk Cousins threw the ball in Griffin's relief. They just don't have the depth to survive a lot of injuries, and while it appears Griffin will go Sunday (as of this writing), it may not be enough.
Pick: Vikings 20, Redskins 14
Green Bay (2-3) at Houston (5-0) - 8:20pm NBC
The Packers are a wounded team. No, they aren't beset by injuries, although Cedric Benson leaving the game last week hurt them some. They just aren't as good as most thought they were. Aaron Rodgers is an elite quarterback, but he's been hit more this season than in years past. The defense, once a strength, has been downright awful the last year and a half. The offense masked the weaknesses last year, this year that hasn't been the case. As a result they are 2-3 and at a crossroads. Win and their playoff hopes are still relatively intact. Lose, and it could be see ya next year.
The Texans are by and large considered the best team in the NFL this year. Yes, they've had some games that were closer than expected, but they've managed to stay perfect. Matt Schaub, Adrian Foster, and Andre Johnson are as scary a trio in the NFL as any and the defense may have gotten better after letting Mario Williams leave in free agency. JJ Watt has emerged as a big time player, but the loss of Brian Cushing can't be overstated. The emotional leader of the defense is done for the season with an ACL tear. They can overcome that most weeks, but they'll lose a couple of games somewhere down the road soon. This week I think they win.
Pick: Texans 31, Packers 28
Monday
Denver (2-3) at San Diego (3-2) - 8:30pm ESPN
The Broncos have underachieved to some, but are right where they should be according to others. Peyton Manning hasn't always looked great, but then all of a sudden he gets hot and looks like the Manning of old, picking apart teams and scoring at will. The problem is the defense hasn't played up to par and has allowed teams to get out to big leads, forcing Manning to play catch-up. The scary part? He's almost led three different come-from-behind wins. Fact is though, they've lost 3 winnable games and this is another challenge for the defense.
The Chargers, in my opinion, are one of the most baffling teams in the NFL. They look great some weeks, then look awful in others. Case in point, they laid an absolute egg against the Falcons, at home a few weeks back. Last week? They fell to the previously winless Saints. This week they host the Broncos, but I just get the feeling the Chargers are still feeling the effects of that previous loss. Phillip Rivers at some point will try to force the issue and the Broncos will make him pay for it.
Pick: Broncos 27, Chargers 23
The Browns Game
Cincinnati (3-2) at Cleveland (0-5) - 1pm CBS
The Bengals lost a golden opportunity to stay neck and neck with the Ravens. At home, against a rookie quarterback, with a defense that was starting to get a handle on things. So what do they do? The stumble on offense and lose to the Dolphins. This week could be a hangover type week for them. Sure, they'd want to get back on the right track with a win, but the Bengals have struggled of late against the Browns, needing late plays to pull off the win. I think the magic runs out this week (I hope).
The Browns could be 4-1. They've been in every game (even the stinker last week wasn't as bad as some claim), held the lead in a few of them, and have generally hung in there against superior competition. The first meeting against the Bengals was a 34-27 loss in which Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson played their best games. Last week Richardson had another solid outing, although Weeden threw some bad interceptions. I think this week is a chance to get over the hump and pick up their first win. Joe Haden will be back and with it being at home, this is a perfect time for the team to re-energize the fan base.
Pick: Browns 31, Bengals 23
Bye week: Chicago, New Orleans, Carolina, Jacksonville
Last week: 12-2
Overall: 22-7
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