The NFL is a funny thing.
You can reasonably guess the outcomes of most games in most weeks, then all of a sudden, everything gets turned upside down and you feel as if you know nothing about sports. It's the beauty of trying to predict something that requires a team effort, the pieces working together as one.
Get a kink in the system, and it can all fall apart as the 49ers discovered two weeks ago against the Giants. That kink was still there last Thursday, but they managed to eke out a win over the Seahawks.
Last week was a redemption week for picks. After going 7-7 the prior week, I hit on 10 of the 13 games played. Therefore, I'm an expert again.
This week it won't be as easy. There are several games where I could go either way with the pick and not feel confident one bit. In fact, as of this moment, there's still one game that I can't decide which way to go on. Do I trust last week's results, which would indicate going one way with the pick, or do I look at how each team has played prior to last week, which doesn't clear a thing up at all?
Last week was interesting though. We learned Buffalo's defense is as bad as everyone thought it was, that the Packers could be just fine, that Arizona is really a train wreck, that letting Victor Cruz get behind you with under a minute and a half is a bad idea, the Saints have a great offense, but horrible defense, and that the Panthers are a mess, starting with the pouty Cam Newton.
We also learned Baltimore without Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb is not a good thing (or Joe Flacco on the road for that matter), The Jaguars were bad before their quarterback and running back went down, the Patriots aren't as good as we're used to (but the Jets are worse), and that the Bengals do not like the big stage (is Andy Dalton slumping?). Oh, and that the Bears defense is legit.
We also learned the Browns weren't ready for a winning streak and that Pat Shurmer is still in over his head. Some of the playcalling was questionable at best, and the abandonment of the run one week after a balanced offense put up big numbers was baffling at best.
How whacky is the league though? The biggest stories involved teams that were in their bye week. The Chiefs announced that Brady Quinn is going to be the starter going forward over Matt Cassel, which is like trying to plug a hole with a piece of tissue paper. It just isn't the answer to the problem. The biggest question is did Romeo Crennel flip a coin this time like he said when he was in Cleveland?
Meanwhile in Philadelphia, the Eagles fired their defensive coordinator, cause you know, the defense was the problem there. Nevermind the countless turnovers provided by Michael Vick on the inconsistent offense. No, let's fire the head of the strongest unit on the team that has been performing very well this season. I know Andy Reid wanted to shake things up, but the smarter thing would be to stick Vick in a room filled with rubber posts, give him a football, force him to run directly into the posts, and fine him everytime he lost the ball.
That would make sense, so let's fire someone on the defense!
As always, the following picks are for fun only. None of these are to be taken seriously and I will show bias when I feel the need to.
Thursday
Tampa Bay (2-4) at Minnesota (5-2) - 8:20 NFL Network
The Bucs have played well enough to win most weeks. The problem is, they like to put themselves in a hole and have to play catch-up. The defense, while opportunistic at times, just hasn't been as good as they had hoped and while Greg Schiano has been a fiery voice at the top, his antics have also worn thin on the rest of the league. The Bucs are a young team though and have plenty of room to grow, but this week could be another rough week.
The Vikings have done what you need to do with a young quarterback in this league. Give him a bunch of bubble screens, hand off to Adrian Peterson, and limit the mistakes. Christian Ponder has done just that, and with the assistance of Percy Harvin and Peterson, the Vikings have been a fairly efficient offense. The defense has played better this season as well, but they'll have their hands full this week. Josh Freeman plays at his best when the Bucs are behind and it's likely the Vikings will get out to a lead at some point in the first half. How the defense contains Freeman will determine the outcome in this game.
Pick: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16
Sunday
Carolina (1-5) at Chicago (5-1) - 1pm FOX
The Panthers are a train wreck. The defense has been burned repeatedly late in games, and when things start to go sour, Cam Newton doesn't have the ability to rally the troops to get the win. Instead, he seems to wilt under the pressure and has had a lot of trouble facing adversity this year. This was supposed to be a breakout year for the Panthers; instead it's been one disaster after another. Last week was a very winnable game against the Cowboys, but Newton couldn't deliver, and in his postgame interview, said he was setting up a suggestion box for reporters.
The Bears haven't been good on offense. That's okay, because the defense has been tremendous. Last week was another stellar performance, this time suffocating the Lions and forcing several mistakes even when the Lions did manage to get into scoring position. Jay Cutler's numbers weren't good, but he did take a pretty good hit from Ndamukong Suh that from this perspective wasn't a very appropriate tackle, but the league deemed it legal and Cutler called it a clean play. The good thing for the Bears is Cutler and Brandon Marshall are almost impossible to stop and Matt Forte has run well most of the season. Also, give Cutler credit. His toughness has been questioned numerous times, but after sitting out a play after the Suh hit, he came back in to a rousing ovation from the fans. He promptly had a pass dropped by Devin Hester, who never seems to be happy anymore.
The Bears will be happy after this game. This should (shudder) be a cakewalk.
Pick: Bears 27, Panthers 9
Seattle (4-3) at Detroit (2-4) - 1pm FOX
The Seahawks have experienced the highs and lows of having a rookie quarterback lead them. The highs, a come-from-behind win over the Patriots a couple weeks back highlighted by Russel Wilson's game-winning touchdown pass, have been met by lows, such as the struggle faced by the Seahawks last week against the 49ers. Wilson has look good at times, and not so good at other times. I think he has the ability to look good this week, but his mobility will be tested by the Lions front-four.
The Lions can't run the ball. Take away a dimension on offense, and you suddenly have what we saw last week against the Bears: a team forced to throw the ball who's primary target has been kept quiet due to lack of support from other receivers. The Lions are Matt Stafford to Calvin Johnson, and if that doesn't work, they're in trouble this year. I don't think it will get any better against a very good defense.
Pick: Seahawks 17, Lions 12
Jacksonville (1-5) at Green Bay (4-3) - 1pm CBS
There are no words to describe the season that the Jaguars are having. Bad is an understatement, but snakebit might seem like a good choice of words. Blaine Gabbert hadn't shown any improvement before being injured in last week's game (torn labrum possibly?), but they also lost Maurice Jones-Drew, their only real threat on offense. If it were possible for an anemic offense to become worse, we saw that happen last week. The Jags are going to need some serious upgrades this offseason to even think about competing in the near-future.
The Packers seem to be finding themselves offensively, which should scare everyone left on their upcoming schedule, including the Jags. Defensively though, they're still a work in progress and that work just became a little harder with the loss of Charles Woodson. They can overcome this simply by outscoring everyone, but as we saw in their losses, you slow down the offense a little bit and they can be beat. I think the Jags can slow things down a bit, but they just don't possess the firepower to combat Aaron Rodgers and his stable of receivers. This should be a blowout.
Pick: Packers 37, Jaguars 14
Indianapolis (3-3) at Tennessee (3-4) - 1pm CBS
The Colts have something with Andrew Luck, but we all knew that was going to be the case. What should be scary is he's only going to get better and as his complimentary cast improves, he has a chance to be great for a while. He should hope for a better defense though, as the Colts have been exceptionally bad against the run (don't tell the Browns that) and while they've been generally good against the pass, the Browns were able to move the ball on them. There's still a lot to be positive about though.
The Titans...I don't know what to make of them. Chris Johnson ran for nearly 200 yards last week, but aside from that performance and one another good performance, he's underperformed for them. Add in that Matt Hasselbeck just isn't the same quarterback as he was in years past, and there isn't much that should scare you about this offense. But, the Titans are facing one of the worst rushing defenses they'll see all year and that bodes well.
I really don't know which way to go here. If each team plays to its strength, it could be a shootout. The Colts have been inconsistent, but I think the advantage has to go to the young quarterback.
Pick: Colts 34, Titans 30
New England (4-3) at St. Louis (3-4) from London - 1pm CBS
The Patriots are not a good team. They give up a lot of yards, the offense seems to stall at the oddest times, and when they do win, they barely seem to pull it out. Yet they're 4-3 and in the driver's seat in a weak AFC East. Now they get to travel across to London to face a scrappy Rams team that doesn't go down without a fight. Tom Brady will need to be sharp and keep the pressure on the Rams weak offense.
Did I mention the Rams were scrappy? This is a team that won't go down without a fight. I don't see them winning this game, but they'll give the Pats everything they can handle until the final whistle blows. Offensively, they go as Stephen Jackson goes. If he's running well and piles up the yards, this game will be even closer. If the Pats can stop him and force Sam Bradford to have to throw, the Rams are in trouble. Their receivers just aren't that good at this point.
Pick: Patriots 27, Rams 17
Miami (3-3) at NY Jets (3-4) - 1pm CBS
I like the Dolphins. They have a rookie quarterback in Ryan Tannehill that gets better each week, a reborn Reggie Bush (numbers have been down of late, but minor detail), and a solid defense. They also have a little bit of fire, taking the barbs coming from the Jets and firing right back at the source. They got an extra week to take a look at the Jets and see how to play this game and they have to like what they see in front of them. Oh, and the revenge factor is there, having lost in overtime to the Jets earlier this year.
I don't like the Jets. Sure, they have played better the last couple of weeks, but it hasn't done much for them in the standings. The Patriots practically gave them the game last week and they couldn't seize the opportunity. Mark Sanchez takes much of the blame for their issues, but it's really a team-wide problem that starts with coach Rex Ryan, who doesn't know how to keep quiet. The rest of the team follows his chirpy lead and has failed to support Sanchez with viable pieces. Santonio Holmes is gone for the year, Shone Greene is not a good running back, and they barely use Tim Tebow. I think revenge is in the air this week.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Jets 16
Atlanta (6-0) at Philadelphia (3-3) - 1pm FOX
I'm not completely sold on the Falcons yet. In a couple of games, they've really had to fight to pull off the win, and in one case, needed Cam Newton to forget to hold on to the ball with the clock running down. That said, Matt Ryan is a good quarterback, Michael Turner is a serviceable back, and the receiving tandem of Julio Jones and Roddy White is among the best in the league. I just don't like how often they've had to come back to win games. It's going to bite them in the butt soon.
The Eagles are that family you see on TV that everyone talks about, but for the wrong reasons. Michael Vick is a turnover machine, they don't run the ball enough, DeSean Jackson takes plays off, and the defense is constantly being scrutinized despite being the strength of the team. Coming off a rocky bye week, the Eagles need a win to avoid any more shake-ups, possibly even at quarterback. Vick needs to protect the ball, but more importantly, Andy Reid needs to remember this thing called a running game. You have a good back Andy, use him!
This pick is probably going to bite me in the rear, but I'm going with it.
Pick: Eagles 24, Falcons 21
Washington (3-4) at Pittsburgh (3-3) - 1pm FOX
The Redskins are exciting. Wait, RGIII is exciting. The Redskins have been competitive in each of their games, but inexplicable defensive breakdowns have led to their demise, such as forgetting about Victor Cruz in the last minute of their game against the Giants. How does the safety let Cruz go by? Did you not realize that he was a deep threat in a game that was close? The Redskins put up points, but the defense has been gashed with injuries, making things difficult. London Fletcher may miss his first ever game in his long career, another potential blow to a weakened unit. At least the Redskins have a solid running game, right?
The Steelers finally returned to their roots last week against the Bengals, and in the process, earned a hard-fought win. By running the ball effectively and forcing Andy Dalton into several mistakes, the Steelers were able to keep a firm control on the game, limiting the number of second half possessions by the Bengals. They'll need to do that again this week to keep RGIII away from the ball. The Steelers aren't as solid defensively as we're used to seeing, but they're getting closer to the form that has made them a perennial contender. Now if Ben Roethlisberger would stop complaining about the offense.
Pick: Steelers 23, Redskins 20
Oakland (2-4) at Kansas City (1-5) - 4:05pm CBS
Neither of these teams are very good. The Raiders seem to rack up yards, but fail to score. The addition of Carson Palmer last year hasn't helped a bit, in fact, they've been worse since Palmer joined the team in a surprising trade with the Bengals. Darren McFadden also has underachieved this year, leaving the offense vulnerable at times. They've been better as of late, but nothing cures a tough schedule like a trip to Kansas City, right?
The Chiefs...I don't even want to talk about them. Romeo Crennel was thought to be the answer, but he seems to have reverted back to his ways when he was coach of the Browns and the players seemingly did what they wanted and he made decisions with a coin flip. Brady Quinn is now the starter, and how that's an upgrade, I don't know. I do know that Quinn isn't the answer, but given Matt Cassel's struggles this year, maybe there is no answer. Sorry KC, but it's only going to get worse I fear.
Pick: Raiders 24, Chiefs 14
NY Giants (5-2) at Dallas (3-3) - 4:25pm FOX
The Giants are still the masters of the late-game comeback. More specifically, Eli Manning is now the absolute guy you want running your offense in the fourth quarter, down by a score. Granted, he took advantage of some seriously shoddy coverage by the Redskins, but he still made the play when needed, as he's done all season. The Giants are looking to avenge a week-one loss to the Cowboys, and this is on the road, where they've thrived the last few years.
The Cowboys, according to Jerry Jones, are a contender for the Super Bowl. As soon as I'm done snorting milk out of my nose, I'll respond to that.
Don't hold your breath.
"America's Team" seems to be perpetually overrated and this year is no different. Tony Romo is not an elite quarterback and Dez Bryant does not elicit memories of Michael Irvin. This team was barely good enough to beat the Panthers, and while they dismantled the Giants earlier this year, there will not be a repeat of that performance.
Pick: Giants 34, Cowboys 20
New Orleans (2-4) at Denver (3-3) - 8:20pm NBC
The Saints still don't have any defense, which is odd since the only part of their NFL Replay that I caught was Malcolm Jenkins running down Vincent Jackson at the two-yard line, then the Saints proceeding to keep the Buccaneers out of the end zone on four consecutive tries. They still gave up a ton of points and have been masked by the brilliance of Drew Brees, who continues to pile up Hall of Fame numbers. They'll score again this week, but will they outscore Peyton Manning at home?
The Broncos are the type of team that gives its fans a heart attack. Quick, fall behind by 17-20 points, then mount a furious comeback that will either come up juuuuust short, or be juuuuust enough to pull a win out. Even Manning was saying the way they won against the Chargers two weeks ago is no way to play the game. Luckily a week off should help them outscore the Saints.
Sorry New Orleans.
Pick: Broncos 28, Saints 24
Monday
San Francisco (5-2) at Arizona (3-3) - 8:30pm ESPN
Remember when the 49ers lost to the Vikings and people questioned them? They came out and whacked the Jets 34-0. Remember when they lost to the Giants in embarrassing fashion at home? They came out and tickled the Seahawks 13-6.
So last week's game wasn't exactly the roaring bounce-back I expected, but it was still a win within the division. This week pits another game against a divisional foe, this time the Cardinals. I can't see how this game will be as close. The 49ers defense should be all over John Skelton, who really has the unfortunate task of standing behind the revolving door of an offensive line. Alex Smith needs a strong performance in this game however to offset his recent struggles.
Remember when the Cardinals were 4-0? Yeah, no one else does either, but at one point, they were thanks to surprising wins over the Patriots and Eagles. Since then, they were "blown out" by the Rams (as much as you can be by the Rams anyway), lost to the Bills in overtime, and the Vikings at home. Now they get the division leader, the class of the division really, at home. With John Skelton at quarterback, who might be better than Kevin Kolb, but the difference won't matter behind the swiss cheese offensive line. The Cardinals are in trouble in this one.
Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 13
The Browns
San Diego (3-3) at Cleveland (1-6) - 1pm CBS
The Chargers are a team that should be at least 5-1. The lone legitimate loss in my opinion is to the Falcons, but that was a white-wash by the Falcons in San Diego after a 2-0 start. They bounced back with a win over Kansas City, but since then lost to the then-winless Saints and blew a 24-0 halftime lead when Philip Rivers imploded, fumbling twice and throwing four interceptions in the second half of their loss to the Broncos. Will there be lingering effects? We'll see, but the weather won't be in the favor of the Chargers, or the Browns for that matter. The Chargers would be advised to run the ball a little bit more, take some pressure off Rivers. But I don't know that coach Norv Turner is smart enough to do that.
The Browns are hearing cries for coach Pat Shurmer's head from all corners of the city. It's easy to understand why after some of the coaching decisions made in last week's game, one of which left incoming owner Jimmy Haslam quiet enraged for all the cameras to see. Now there are questions if Trent Richardson should be shut down until after the bye, or even the season with his rib injury. Despite all of that, the Browns continue to be competitive and have had every opportunity to win in each of their games. Brandon Weeden has improved each week, Josh Gordon appears to be the deep threat they've wanted, and even Greg Little has stepped up and made big catches lately. The defense is still a concern, but Phil Taylor should be back in a couple of weeks to bolster a depleted defensive line. Now if the refs would call a hold or two when Jabaal Sheard is rushing the quarterback...
This is a winnable game for the Browns. Will they learn from last week and establish the run? Or will they have Weeden throw 40-50 more times because they don't want to run the ball and the defense has given up early points? We shall see, but the Browns need to take advantage of a shell-shocked Chargers team in front of the home crowd. With a wounded Ravens team lurking the following week, this is another chance to get on a roll heading into their bye week in two weeks.
Pick: Browns 31, Chargers 27
Bye: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Houston
Last week: 10-3
Overall: 39-17
No comments:
Post a Comment