Before I get into my picks for the championship round of the playoffs, let me talk about the two predominant sports stories making the rounds over the last 24 hours.
No, this isn't me stalling because I still haven't decided on who to pick (although that may play a small role in opening with these stories rather than finishing the post with them), but rather me wanting to not talk about these things by talking about them.
Confused?
Good.
The Manti Te'o is perhaps the most annoying story to come out in a long while. Now, I had the opportunity to watch the BCS National Championship game in which Te'o was abused repeatedly by the Alabama offense and appeared to be at least a step slower than the opposing players. As I watched, I tried to figure out how *that* guy ended up finishing second in Heisman voting and how it was as close as it was. He just didn't seem like he belonged on the field, much like the rest of his teammates.
Now the feel-good story about the deaths of his grandmother and girlfriend motivating his play is turning out to be half-true with the revelation that his alleged girlfriend didn't exist. Depending on what the truth ends up being, he was either the victim of a particularly cruel hoax, or played a role in the scam in hopes of increasing his public persona. Of course, one former teammate has already come out and said that a lot of his teammates were skeptical of the girlfriend story, while others are standing up for him (which is another set of issues; I know news outlets are desperate for information and some want attention so badly, but if you were a teammate of someone, why speak out against him?).
Either way, I could care less. If it was a hoax he didn't know about shame on them for doing this to a trusting person. Let him recover and stop talking about it. If he was in on it, stop talking about it! All you're doing is giving him more of the attention he's seeking.
While there are legitimate questions about whether this hurts his draft stock, to me the damage was done in the BCS game when he was abused by the Alabama offense thoroughly. That game, not this worthless story, is what makes me doubt if he's an NFL-caliber player. If he had come up big on the biggest stage, I'd be saying he's a top-five pick. That game leads me to believe anything about the third round is a reach now.
The other story is Chip Kelly going to the Philadelphia Eagles a week after he decided he was going to stay at Oregon. Some, notably those in the Cleveland media, believe the Cleveland Browns should feel scorned or be bothered by this. After all, it is Joe Banner's former team signing Kelly when it was clear the Browns were after him. Me? I don't think they should feel scorned, nor should any fan. They shouldn't be bothered by this at all.
If Kelly wanted to coach the Browns, he'd already have his coaching staff in place and be talking about players to bring in. Instead, it's Rob Chudzinski that's setting up his coaching staff and I'm fine with that. He wants to coach here, he helped Cam Newton put up some impressive numbers at Carolina, and he was the offensive coordinator the last time the Browns had any semblance of a real offense in town. Give him a chance.
But feel spurned by Kelly? The guy may end up being a great coach. You don't know that yet. But I'm not comfortable with a guy who left the Tamba Bay Buccaneers hanging last year, then flirted with the Browns, Bill, and Eagles before deciding he was staying at Oregon, then two days after visiting a recruit, leaves the Ducks to coach the Eagles.
I'm good on that.
Phew.
Now that that's out of the way, let's talk about Championship Sunday, shall we?
San Francisco at Atlanta - 3pm FOX
The 49ers saw one of the most amazing postseason performances put on in recent memory by Colin Kaepernick. He not only threw the ball well, he ran for 181 yards as he did whatever he wanted against the Packers' defense, which really isn't saying much given that the Packers never ONCE adjusted to what the 49ers were doing. Kaepernick has really been remarkable though. He's managed to turn Michael Crabtree into a legitimate receiving threat after appearing to be a semi-bust with Alex Smith as quarterback. That defense isn't performing as well though and that's a concern going against an offense that has a good quarterback, outstanding receivers, a legend at tight end, and a rejuvenated running back. Sure, some of the 31 points given up were just because that was the pace of the game, but the pass rush hasn't been there of late.
The Falcons appeared to be cruising against the Seahawks. They had a 20-0 lead at halftime, and then kept the lead at 20 points at 27-7 after a Seahawks score. It was midway through the third quarter and it was just a formality, right? Well, the Seahawks should've pulled out the victory. They scored 21 unanswered points to take a 28-27 lead with 31 seconds left. 31 seconds. That's what, three or four plays if you're lucky, right? Well, three plays later, Matt Bryant was kicking the game-winning field goal through the uprights from 49 yards out. What should be noted is that Pete Carroll had iced the kicker with a timeout, so of course he missed that kick and was given a second chance, which he used to adjust and make the kick. You can't discount the two throws Matt Ryan made with little time to go. 22 yards on the first one, 19 on the second one, and boom the Falcons were in range to win the game. Ryan has been unflappable this year in those situations, leading the Falcons to multiple wins when they should've lost.
I just don't know which way to go with this one; do I look at the dominant offensive performance of Kaepernick and go with the 49ers? Do I go with the never say die mentality brought by Ryan? I suppose in this case, the tie goes to the home team.
Pick: Falcons 31, 49ers 27
Baltimore at New England - 6:30pm CBS
The Ravens surprised everyone by winning against the Broncos in double-overtime. It took a miracle throw from Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones to do, but they did it and the Ray Lewis retirement tour gets to make at least one more stop, this time in New England where they won earlier this season. You can't deny the Ravens played inspired, never quit, and played until the final kick went through the uprights, but they needed that miracle throw to even force overtime in the first place. Fact is, the defense was getting gashed by Peyton Manning and the Broncos most of the afternoon, then once the offense rescued them, stood tall in overtime. They'll need a much stronger showing against the Patriots, who are completely clicking on all cyclinders.
The Patriots aren't a strong defensive team, but it seems like every week they're up big before their opponent even knows what hit them and for the second time this season, they were whipping the Houston Texans, forcing the Texans to play catch-up, which isn't their strength. Tom Brady doesn't let up off the accelerator either, continuing to go for big plays even when the Pats are up big. This is a team that goes for the kill every chance they get and it's hard to think the Ravens will slow them down.
Truth is, I'm trying to find reasons to pick the Ravens and it's not easy. Maybe the Ray Lewis retirement tour is enough to get them back in the Super Bowl, but it might take another miracle from Flacco and the offense.
Pick: Ravens 30, Patriots 28
Last: 2-2
Overall: 4-4
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
The Sports Mixer - Divisional Playoff Picks
The playoffs are the most difficult picks to make. Teams that appear to be red-hot often cool dramatically when the playoffs start as the pressure ramps the intensity of things up significantly. Teams that were dominant in the regular season wilt under all the pressure the playoffs bring.
For example, the Cincinnati Bengals were on a roll heading into the playoffs while the Houston Texans were faltering. The Texans didn't exactly roll offensively, but their defense did a number on the Bengals and helped them cruise to victory. Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts had been one of the best stories in recent memory, but the Baltimore Ravens turned them to dust as Ray Lewis played his final home game in his long career.
The Minnesota Vikings had outlasted the Green Bay Packers in the regular season finale as Adrian Peterson ran over and through Packers' defenders as if they weren't there, and while he still racked up some good numbers, with Christian Ponder sidelined the Vikings had no offensive answer for the Packers and lost. Meanwhile the Seattle Seahawks spotted the Washington Redskins 14 points before dominating defensively. The injury to Robert Griffin III made things easier, but they still dominated a previously good running game.
The performance makes their upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons much more difficult to predict. Additionally, teams coming off the bye haven't been as sharp in recent years so do you compensate for that factor? Particularly challenging is the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers. The 49ers have been good against elite competition this year, but also can potentially falter when least expected. The Packers can put up numbers, but can the offensive line protect Aaron Rodgers against a very good pass-rush?
Let's find out, shall we?
Saturday
Baltimore (10-6) at Denver (13-3) - 4:30pm CBS
The Ravens needed that first win as much as any team entering the playoffs having lost three of their final four to back into the third seed. Their reward was a very green Colts team that just wasn't able to overcome the return of Ray Lewis to a maligned defensive unit. The Ravens dominated the Colts on both sides of the ball and seemed like a different team. The Colts overachieved all season long, there's no doubt about that, but the Ravens removed the doubt early on. Now they travel to Denver where they lost by 17 points earlier in the season. Additionally, Peyton Manning has a personal nine game winning streak going against the Ravens. Once again, the odds are stacked against the Ravens and I have a hard time seeing them overcome them.
The Broncos ended the season on fire, having won eleven straight games and thoroughly dominating opponents by the last quarter of the season. Peyton Manning continues to defy the odds in that he doesn't look like a guy coming off multiple neck surgeries and one missed season. He has complete control of the Denver offense and runs it at a high tempo to keep defensives on their heels. Not to be outdone, the Broncos' defense has shined led by Von Miller. Finally, this game being in Denver tilts things in the favor of the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 23
Green Bay (11-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1) - 8pm FOX
The Packers exacted revenge against the Vikings for knocking them out of the second seed with their win last week. Defensively they were as good as they'd been all year, although Adrian Peterson still picked up 99 yards, it was a dramatic improvement over the previous two meetings. It helped that Christian Ponder was out, leaving the keys to the offense in the hands of Joe Webb, who had a very tough time throwing the ball. On the other side, the Packers offensive line held up long enough for Aaron Rodgers to get the ball downfield and the running game was just good enough to help with play-action.
The 49ers have one advantage in this game, and it's their defense which excels at getting pressure on the quarterback. Combine that against a shaky offensive line on Green Bay and you have the opportunity for a big game for the defensive line. Colin Kaepernick has been up and down, but he possesses a far-better arm that Webb and if Frank Gore is running hard, the 49ers can control the game and keep Rodgers off the field. That's going to be the biggest key in this game. If they can pressure Rodgers and control the ball, the 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.
Pick: 49ers 23, Packers 20
Sunday
Seattle (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3) - 1pm FOX
This was the toughest game to pick. The Seahawks have been on some kind of roll for several weeks now, but I was betting on RGIII having a big game in his postseason debut. Instead, the Seahawks' defense swarmed the Redskins offense and made life difficult. The Seahawks offense meanwhile was efficient behind Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, who seems to shine brightest in the playoffs (remember his rumbling touchdown against the Saints a couple years back?). They're starting to play as well on the road as they have at home, which is big since they won't get a home game this postseason. They get to go to Atlanta this week and take on one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons are a team that I worry about coming off the bye. Until late in the season, they had struggled at times, yet found ways to win, especially against inferior opponents. Seattle is not inferior and their pass defense is very good, which will challenge Matt Ryan. Luckily, he has Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez to throw passes to, which offsets a relatively weak running game. Ryan can be flustered and has yet to win a playoff game, so this is a big test for him in his march towards elite status. He's flamed out too many times in the playoffs, so it's time for him to step up. I just don't know if he can overcome the roll the Seahawks have been on.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17
Houston (12-4) at New England (12-4) - 4:30pm CBS
This is potentially the best matchup of the weekend as the Texans look to avenge one of the worst losses for them in the regular season, a 42-17 blowout at the hands of the Patriots in Foxboro. Matt Schaub made a solid, if unspectacular playoff debut last week against a good Bengals defense, but his play was sporadic enough to leave question marks about his performance. Arian Foster has been carrying the Texans for two years though, and if he can continue to run well, the Texans will have a chance. They can't fall behind early again like they did last time or it'll be a long evening in New England.
The Patriots seem as ready as they've ever been for a long playoff run. After some early season stumbles and questions about how much Tom Brady has left in the tank, the Patriots went on a tear, consistently beating good teams badly, their only stumble being against the 49ers, and even then they nearly pulled off an incredible comeback. Bill Belichick will have this team ready to go and it could be a long day again for the Texans.
Pick: Patriots 34, Texans 24
Last week: 2-2
For example, the Cincinnati Bengals were on a roll heading into the playoffs while the Houston Texans were faltering. The Texans didn't exactly roll offensively, but their defense did a number on the Bengals and helped them cruise to victory. Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts had been one of the best stories in recent memory, but the Baltimore Ravens turned them to dust as Ray Lewis played his final home game in his long career.
The Minnesota Vikings had outlasted the Green Bay Packers in the regular season finale as Adrian Peterson ran over and through Packers' defenders as if they weren't there, and while he still racked up some good numbers, with Christian Ponder sidelined the Vikings had no offensive answer for the Packers and lost. Meanwhile the Seattle Seahawks spotted the Washington Redskins 14 points before dominating defensively. The injury to Robert Griffin III made things easier, but they still dominated a previously good running game.
The performance makes their upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons much more difficult to predict. Additionally, teams coming off the bye haven't been as sharp in recent years so do you compensate for that factor? Particularly challenging is the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers. The 49ers have been good against elite competition this year, but also can potentially falter when least expected. The Packers can put up numbers, but can the offensive line protect Aaron Rodgers against a very good pass-rush?
Let's find out, shall we?
Saturday
Baltimore (10-6) at Denver (13-3) - 4:30pm CBS
The Ravens needed that first win as much as any team entering the playoffs having lost three of their final four to back into the third seed. Their reward was a very green Colts team that just wasn't able to overcome the return of Ray Lewis to a maligned defensive unit. The Ravens dominated the Colts on both sides of the ball and seemed like a different team. The Colts overachieved all season long, there's no doubt about that, but the Ravens removed the doubt early on. Now they travel to Denver where they lost by 17 points earlier in the season. Additionally, Peyton Manning has a personal nine game winning streak going against the Ravens. Once again, the odds are stacked against the Ravens and I have a hard time seeing them overcome them.
The Broncos ended the season on fire, having won eleven straight games and thoroughly dominating opponents by the last quarter of the season. Peyton Manning continues to defy the odds in that he doesn't look like a guy coming off multiple neck surgeries and one missed season. He has complete control of the Denver offense and runs it at a high tempo to keep defensives on their heels. Not to be outdone, the Broncos' defense has shined led by Von Miller. Finally, this game being in Denver tilts things in the favor of the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 23
Green Bay (11-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1) - 8pm FOX
The Packers exacted revenge against the Vikings for knocking them out of the second seed with their win last week. Defensively they were as good as they'd been all year, although Adrian Peterson still picked up 99 yards, it was a dramatic improvement over the previous two meetings. It helped that Christian Ponder was out, leaving the keys to the offense in the hands of Joe Webb, who had a very tough time throwing the ball. On the other side, the Packers offensive line held up long enough for Aaron Rodgers to get the ball downfield and the running game was just good enough to help with play-action.
The 49ers have one advantage in this game, and it's their defense which excels at getting pressure on the quarterback. Combine that against a shaky offensive line on Green Bay and you have the opportunity for a big game for the defensive line. Colin Kaepernick has been up and down, but he possesses a far-better arm that Webb and if Frank Gore is running hard, the 49ers can control the game and keep Rodgers off the field. That's going to be the biggest key in this game. If they can pressure Rodgers and control the ball, the 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.
Pick: 49ers 23, Packers 20
Sunday
Seattle (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3) - 1pm FOX
This was the toughest game to pick. The Seahawks have been on some kind of roll for several weeks now, but I was betting on RGIII having a big game in his postseason debut. Instead, the Seahawks' defense swarmed the Redskins offense and made life difficult. The Seahawks offense meanwhile was efficient behind Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, who seems to shine brightest in the playoffs (remember his rumbling touchdown against the Saints a couple years back?). They're starting to play as well on the road as they have at home, which is big since they won't get a home game this postseason. They get to go to Atlanta this week and take on one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons are a team that I worry about coming off the bye. Until late in the season, they had struggled at times, yet found ways to win, especially against inferior opponents. Seattle is not inferior and their pass defense is very good, which will challenge Matt Ryan. Luckily, he has Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez to throw passes to, which offsets a relatively weak running game. Ryan can be flustered and has yet to win a playoff game, so this is a big test for him in his march towards elite status. He's flamed out too many times in the playoffs, so it's time for him to step up. I just don't know if he can overcome the roll the Seahawks have been on.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17
Houston (12-4) at New England (12-4) - 4:30pm CBS
This is potentially the best matchup of the weekend as the Texans look to avenge one of the worst losses for them in the regular season, a 42-17 blowout at the hands of the Patriots in Foxboro. Matt Schaub made a solid, if unspectacular playoff debut last week against a good Bengals defense, but his play was sporadic enough to leave question marks about his performance. Arian Foster has been carrying the Texans for two years though, and if he can continue to run well, the Texans will have a chance. They can't fall behind early again like they did last time or it'll be a long evening in New England.
The Patriots seem as ready as they've ever been for a long playoff run. After some early season stumbles and questions about how much Tom Brady has left in the tank, the Patriots went on a tear, consistently beating good teams badly, their only stumble being against the 49ers, and even then they nearly pulled off an incredible comeback. Bill Belichick will have this team ready to go and it could be a long day again for the Texans.
Pick: Patriots 34, Texans 24
Last week: 2-2
Friday, January 4, 2013
The Sports Mixer NFL Playoff Primer
The Sports Mixer is back after taking a couple of weeks off due to the holiday rush and generally not having time in general to get any writing done.
I know, it's weak, but it's the best excuse I can offer up.
After missing the final two weeks of picks, I'm back not only to prepare you for the playoffs, but offer up my picks for the Wildcard round of the playoffs, which could be the most competitive round we've seen in years.
To begin, we'll look at each team that made the playoffs and talk about how they made it, their strengths, their weaknesses, and what chance they have at actually making it to the promised land. Will we see another sixth-seeded wildcard team make the Super Bowl this year? Seems unlikely but in the playoffs, the hottest team wins.
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
How they got in - the Broncos enter the playoffs as the hottest team in football. They won their final eleven games in convincing fashion to literally waltz into the postseason. They vaulted into the top seed thanks to the Texans and Ravens faltering down the stretch and the arm of Peyton Manning, who seems to have lost nothing from his multiple neck surgeries.
Strengths - the arm of Manning and a physical defense that took down even the most stout of offensive lines.
Weaknesses - It's hard to find something that the Broncos weren't good at. If there is a weakness, it's the secondary isn't very deep, but that tends to be true of most teams. There's also the concern of Manning if he gets hit the wrong way given his recent neck issues.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Probably the highest of any team, although Manning tends to suffer in the playoffs historically.
2. New England Patriots
How they got in - the Patriots also finished hot, winning 9 of their last 10, and almost made it more by nearly pulling off the improbable comeback against the 49ers. It doesn't seem to matter that Tom Brady is getting older; Bill Belichick's teams always seem to find a way and this year has been no different. He's retooled his defense, put together an impressive array of running backs, and finds players that others toss aside.
Strengths - Brady, Belichick, and the supporting roster. This team has been in the playoffs multiple times and won't have a deer in headlights look to it.
Weaknesses - The secondary can be soft and give up big plays. Also, aside from Danny Woodhead, none of their running backs is exceptionally experienced in posteason play.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Up there simply because Brady and Belichick will be ready. The Patriots haven't been to multiple Super Bowls on accident after all.
3. Houston Texans
How they got in - They pretty much backed in by getting hot early in the season, then faltered down the stretch. They lost 3 out of their last four, the lone win coming at home against the Colts. If they want to advance, they'll need to snap out of the funk that dropped them from top seed to the third seed facing the Bengals again in the opening round.
Strengths - Arian Foster and Andre Johnson on offense and JJ Watt on defense. That said, this team hasn't been the same defensively since Brian Cushing went down with a season-ending injury.
Weaknesses - As hard as it is to say this, Matt Schaub is a weakness if the Texans fall behind big. He's just not capable of the quick-strike big play. The linebackers are a liability as well.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - were dramatically higher earlier in the season. Now they'll be lucky to make it out of the first round.
4. Baltimore Ravens
How they got in - Like Houston, they've backed their way into the playoffs, losing 4 out of 5 and looking very ragged. Things were so bad that Cam Cameron was tanked as offensive coordinator in favor of Jim Caldwell. Things did not improve however and Joe Flacco continues to raise questions if he's an elite quarterback.
Strengths - Ray Rice and if Ray Lewis returns, his energy will give the defense a boost it sorely needs. Torrey Smith needs to re-emerge as a big-play receiver as well.
Weaknesses - As odd as it seems, the defense has become a weakness for the Ravens, especially against the run. Overall, the defensive numbers are way down.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - This team seems flat right now and if they don't give themselves a jolt, will be watching someone else play. Right now the odds aren't good.
5. Indianapolis Colts
How they got in - On the arm of Andrew Luck and the emotion of the Chuck Pagano story that has riveted the league since it was announced he had leukemia. Now Pagano is back and it can't be overlooked the job that Bruce Arians did in his absence. The Colts may be the story of the year right now no matter what happens.
Strengths - Luck, obviously, and Reggie Wayne lead an overachieving offense that compensates for a porous defense. You can say that coaching has been a strength as well. No team has been more ready to play week in and week out.
Weaknesses - The run defense has been poor all year and the defense in generally can give up some big plays. The offense has overcome a lot of the mistakes though.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not great, but don't be surprised to see them make a run at it.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
How they got in - By winning 7 of their last 8 games with a stout defense and Andy Dalton limiting his mistakes on offense. He was an interception machine at the start of the season, but cut down on the picks and started finding AJ Green on a more consistent basis. Benjarvis Green-Ellis also provided a huge spark in the running game over the last several weeks.
Strengths - Dalton, Green, and a very good defensive line.
Weaknesses - The receiving corp behind Green is suspect and the secondary isn't the greatest either.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Six seeds always seem to surprise and this one could do the same if they get past the Texans.
NFC
1. Atlanta Falcons
How they got in - By absolutely controlling the NFC South until it didn't matter and they could coast into the playoffs. Matt Ryan continued to show why he could be considered an elite quarterback, pulling off a couple of comeback wins, but he'll need to win in the playoffs now. The Falcons have a solid defense to compliment a potentially explosive offense.
Strengths - Ryan, Roddy White, and Julio Jones lead an offense that can score quickly, or hold onto the ball with Michael Turner running.
Weaknesses - The defense should be more stout, but it hasn't been consistent. Turner also hasn't shown a ton of consistency.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - In a stacked NFC? Not as good as the Broncos in the AFC, but Ryan will be trying to prove he can take his team to the promised land.
2. San Francisco
How they got in - By barely controlling a division that was theirs for the taking until it was realized they couldn't win in their own division consistently. They beat the elite teams, but struggled against lesser competition, especially the St. Louis Rams. They get a bye but will likely struggle in their opening game.
Strengths - A physical defense that can dominate the opponent if clicking and Jim Harbaugh seems to work magic with players such as Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick.
Weaknesses - Offensively, if they can't run the ball, things seem to fall apart for the 49ers. Kaepernick has wowed at times, and at other times looked lost on the field. Frank Gore needs to run hard for the 49ers to advance very far.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not very good from this corner. Let's call it watching them look bad at the worst possible times.
3. Green Bay Packers
How they got in - By going 9-2 after starting 2-3, giving them the NFC North title and a home game against the Vikings, who they split two meetings with during the regular season. In any other year, they might be the best in the NFC, which only shows how tough the conference was this year.
Strengths - This one's easy: Aaron Rodgers and his compliment of receivers who catch most anything that comes near them.
Weaknesses - Also easy, it's a defense that improved during the year, but still can spring a leak at inopportune times. The offensive line has also left something to be desired, making Rodgers performances even more impressive.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - I'd almost give them better odds than the Falcons if their defense was better, but pretty good as is. If Rodgers gets hot, the rest of the NFC can just go home.
4. Washington Redskins
How they got in - RGIII, RGIII, Alfred Morris, and a brilliant coaching job by Mike Shanahan. Oh, and a defense that found itself in the second half of the season. The Redskins went from 3-6 and out of the hunt to 10-6 and winners of the NFC East. Oh, and they beat the Dallas Cowboys to finish the job. Not too shabby.
Strengths - Even hurt, Robert Griffin III is better than most players on the field. If he's managed to heal up some, this is a very dangerous team. Morris came out of the sixth round to rush for more than 1600 yards, far-surpassing any expectations.
Weaknesses - The defense improved, but I'm still not sold on them getting it done in the playoffs.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not great, but I think they'll cause plenty of trouble for anyone they face, including another dark horse in the Seahawks.
5. Seattle Seahawks
How they got in - By being virtually unbeatable at home and picking up a couple wins on the road. Russell Wilson grew up a lot in his rookie season and with Marshawn Lynch running the ball, the defense was able to attack opponents at will, which they did with remarkable precision.
Strengths - The defense is without a doubt the strength of this team, but the offense is catching up quick. Can't overlook the coaching job done by Pete Carroll either.
Weaknesses - Road games. This team was 8-0 at home, but 3-5 on the road where they looked far-less aggressive. If this team had a better seeding, they'd be a virtual lock.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - As stated before, would be much higher if they were at home, as is, they'll give the Redskins all they can handle.
6. Minnesota Vikings
How they got in - By beating the Packers in their final game behind Adrian Peterson and a competent performance from Christian Ponder. They did just enough to get in, but I can't seem them making much noise this year.
Strengths - Peterson. His run at the rushing record was awe-inspiring, especially when a year ago he was recovering from surgery on his torn ACL.
Weaknesses - Ponder hasn't shown he can consistently perform at this level and while the defense can get after the quarterback, they aren't very good at stopping the run.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - The only slim-to-none team in the playoffs. Getting past the Packers in Lambeau is going to be very difficult.
And now we get to the picks!
Saturday
Cincinnati (10-6) at Houston (12-4) - 4:30pm NBC
At this point, have the Bengals grown enough to win in the first round? Have they figured out how to beat an elite team on the road? The Bengals haven't won a playoff game since the 80's and would look to be difficult to get that first win against the Texans, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Ah, but last year is just that: last year, and this year the Bengals are on a roll heading in. Andy Dalton hasn't always performed well this season, but his play of late has been much better. Benjarvis Green-Ellis isn't healthy, but the Bengals need him to run well against a good Texans defense.
Luckily for the Bengals, the Texans have been struggling going into the playoffs and defensively haven't been very good since Brian Cushing went down earlier in the year. JJ Watt has had an outstanding season, but the if the Bengals can control him, they have a great shot at winning this game. Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson have had great years, but if the Texans fall behind, they have trouble catching up.
Pick: Bengals 27, Texans 23
Minnesota (10-6) at Green Bay (11-5) - 8pm NBC
I know the Vikings just beat the Packers behind Adrian Peterson and his run at the rushing record (sorry, couldn't resist that one). He came up 9 yards short, but the Vikings got the win and a trip to the playoffs when a few weeks ago many wondered if they'd finish with a winning record. Christian Ponder won't wow you, but he's been good enough lately to make some plays and keep the Vikings in the game.
Aaron Rodgers is going to want to avenge that final game though. He was rattled by the pressure by the Vikings at times, but still led the Packers to 34 points and a chance at victory. Instead, he watched as the Vikings ran the ball down the field to kick the game winning field goal. This game though is at Lambeau Field, where the Packers don't lose often in the playoffs. The Packers will try to make an early statement.
Pick: Packers 31, Vikings 20
Sunday
Indianapolis (11-5) at Baltimore (10-6) - 1pm CBS
It's not often that a team finishes with a better record than its opponent and is an underdog, but that's just what the Colts are. They've also been a fantastic story from the remarkable turnaround from last year to Chuck Pagano's battle with leukemia. They were 1-3 when he left the team to be treated and all Bruce Arians did was go 9-3 in relief before Pagano returned for the final game. Andrew Luck was as good as advertised and the Colts pulled out several wins that they frankly should've lost.
Unfortunately, luck eventually runs out and if the Ravens can find some inspiration behind Ray Lewis declaring he's retiring after this season, it could be a long day for the Colts in Baltimore. The Ravens were good at home and that will be one advantage they have. Another is Ray Rice against a poor run defense and if Jim Caldwell has any sense, he'll have Joe Flacco hand the ball off repeatedly to Rice. Regardless, this is a game that the Ravens should win.
Pick: Ravens 27, Colts 23
Seattle (11-5) at Washington (10-6) - 4:30pm FOX
This is one of the most unlikely playoff matchups in recent memory. Neither team was expected to make the playoffs, just be better than the previous year. Now here we are, getting ready to watch the Seahawks face the Redskins. The Seahawks have played tremendous defense all year long and Russell Wilson has continued to improve throughout the season to the point that many believe he's a potential superstar. Their problem tends to be playing on the road, which is what they have to do in this matchup.
The Redskins were dead and buried at 3-6 earlier in the season. Then they went 7-0 to finish the season, watching Robert Griffin III grit his teeth through injury to lead the Redskins to the playoffs. Even sweeter was knocking out the Cowboys to win the division. Now RGIII gets his chance to shine on the playoff stage and I don't think he'll disappoint. Coupled with Alfred Morris, this is a dangerous team to face. The Seahawks defense may finally break this week.
Pick: Redskins 20, Seahawks 17
Season: 124-48-1
I know, it's weak, but it's the best excuse I can offer up.
After missing the final two weeks of picks, I'm back not only to prepare you for the playoffs, but offer up my picks for the Wildcard round of the playoffs, which could be the most competitive round we've seen in years.
To begin, we'll look at each team that made the playoffs and talk about how they made it, their strengths, their weaknesses, and what chance they have at actually making it to the promised land. Will we see another sixth-seeded wildcard team make the Super Bowl this year? Seems unlikely but in the playoffs, the hottest team wins.
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
How they got in - the Broncos enter the playoffs as the hottest team in football. They won their final eleven games in convincing fashion to literally waltz into the postseason. They vaulted into the top seed thanks to the Texans and Ravens faltering down the stretch and the arm of Peyton Manning, who seems to have lost nothing from his multiple neck surgeries.
Strengths - the arm of Manning and a physical defense that took down even the most stout of offensive lines.
Weaknesses - It's hard to find something that the Broncos weren't good at. If there is a weakness, it's the secondary isn't very deep, but that tends to be true of most teams. There's also the concern of Manning if he gets hit the wrong way given his recent neck issues.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Probably the highest of any team, although Manning tends to suffer in the playoffs historically.
2. New England Patriots
How they got in - the Patriots also finished hot, winning 9 of their last 10, and almost made it more by nearly pulling off the improbable comeback against the 49ers. It doesn't seem to matter that Tom Brady is getting older; Bill Belichick's teams always seem to find a way and this year has been no different. He's retooled his defense, put together an impressive array of running backs, and finds players that others toss aside.
Strengths - Brady, Belichick, and the supporting roster. This team has been in the playoffs multiple times and won't have a deer in headlights look to it.
Weaknesses - The secondary can be soft and give up big plays. Also, aside from Danny Woodhead, none of their running backs is exceptionally experienced in posteason play.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Up there simply because Brady and Belichick will be ready. The Patriots haven't been to multiple Super Bowls on accident after all.
3. Houston Texans
How they got in - They pretty much backed in by getting hot early in the season, then faltered down the stretch. They lost 3 out of their last four, the lone win coming at home against the Colts. If they want to advance, they'll need to snap out of the funk that dropped them from top seed to the third seed facing the Bengals again in the opening round.
Strengths - Arian Foster and Andre Johnson on offense and JJ Watt on defense. That said, this team hasn't been the same defensively since Brian Cushing went down with a season-ending injury.
Weaknesses - As hard as it is to say this, Matt Schaub is a weakness if the Texans fall behind big. He's just not capable of the quick-strike big play. The linebackers are a liability as well.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - were dramatically higher earlier in the season. Now they'll be lucky to make it out of the first round.
4. Baltimore Ravens
How they got in - Like Houston, they've backed their way into the playoffs, losing 4 out of 5 and looking very ragged. Things were so bad that Cam Cameron was tanked as offensive coordinator in favor of Jim Caldwell. Things did not improve however and Joe Flacco continues to raise questions if he's an elite quarterback.
Strengths - Ray Rice and if Ray Lewis returns, his energy will give the defense a boost it sorely needs. Torrey Smith needs to re-emerge as a big-play receiver as well.
Weaknesses - As odd as it seems, the defense has become a weakness for the Ravens, especially against the run. Overall, the defensive numbers are way down.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - This team seems flat right now and if they don't give themselves a jolt, will be watching someone else play. Right now the odds aren't good.
5. Indianapolis Colts
How they got in - On the arm of Andrew Luck and the emotion of the Chuck Pagano story that has riveted the league since it was announced he had leukemia. Now Pagano is back and it can't be overlooked the job that Bruce Arians did in his absence. The Colts may be the story of the year right now no matter what happens.
Strengths - Luck, obviously, and Reggie Wayne lead an overachieving offense that compensates for a porous defense. You can say that coaching has been a strength as well. No team has been more ready to play week in and week out.
Weaknesses - The run defense has been poor all year and the defense in generally can give up some big plays. The offense has overcome a lot of the mistakes though.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not great, but don't be surprised to see them make a run at it.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
How they got in - By winning 7 of their last 8 games with a stout defense and Andy Dalton limiting his mistakes on offense. He was an interception machine at the start of the season, but cut down on the picks and started finding AJ Green on a more consistent basis. Benjarvis Green-Ellis also provided a huge spark in the running game over the last several weeks.
Strengths - Dalton, Green, and a very good defensive line.
Weaknesses - The receiving corp behind Green is suspect and the secondary isn't the greatest either.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Six seeds always seem to surprise and this one could do the same if they get past the Texans.
NFC
1. Atlanta Falcons
How they got in - By absolutely controlling the NFC South until it didn't matter and they could coast into the playoffs. Matt Ryan continued to show why he could be considered an elite quarterback, pulling off a couple of comeback wins, but he'll need to win in the playoffs now. The Falcons have a solid defense to compliment a potentially explosive offense.
Strengths - Ryan, Roddy White, and Julio Jones lead an offense that can score quickly, or hold onto the ball with Michael Turner running.
Weaknesses - The defense should be more stout, but it hasn't been consistent. Turner also hasn't shown a ton of consistency.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - In a stacked NFC? Not as good as the Broncos in the AFC, but Ryan will be trying to prove he can take his team to the promised land.
2. San Francisco
How they got in - By barely controlling a division that was theirs for the taking until it was realized they couldn't win in their own division consistently. They beat the elite teams, but struggled against lesser competition, especially the St. Louis Rams. They get a bye but will likely struggle in their opening game.
Strengths - A physical defense that can dominate the opponent if clicking and Jim Harbaugh seems to work magic with players such as Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick.
Weaknesses - Offensively, if they can't run the ball, things seem to fall apart for the 49ers. Kaepernick has wowed at times, and at other times looked lost on the field. Frank Gore needs to run hard for the 49ers to advance very far.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not very good from this corner. Let's call it watching them look bad at the worst possible times.
3. Green Bay Packers
How they got in - By going 9-2 after starting 2-3, giving them the NFC North title and a home game against the Vikings, who they split two meetings with during the regular season. In any other year, they might be the best in the NFC, which only shows how tough the conference was this year.
Strengths - This one's easy: Aaron Rodgers and his compliment of receivers who catch most anything that comes near them.
Weaknesses - Also easy, it's a defense that improved during the year, but still can spring a leak at inopportune times. The offensive line has also left something to be desired, making Rodgers performances even more impressive.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - I'd almost give them better odds than the Falcons if their defense was better, but pretty good as is. If Rodgers gets hot, the rest of the NFC can just go home.
4. Washington Redskins
How they got in - RGIII, RGIII, Alfred Morris, and a brilliant coaching job by Mike Shanahan. Oh, and a defense that found itself in the second half of the season. The Redskins went from 3-6 and out of the hunt to 10-6 and winners of the NFC East. Oh, and they beat the Dallas Cowboys to finish the job. Not too shabby.
Strengths - Even hurt, Robert Griffin III is better than most players on the field. If he's managed to heal up some, this is a very dangerous team. Morris came out of the sixth round to rush for more than 1600 yards, far-surpassing any expectations.
Weaknesses - The defense improved, but I'm still not sold on them getting it done in the playoffs.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not great, but I think they'll cause plenty of trouble for anyone they face, including another dark horse in the Seahawks.
5. Seattle Seahawks
How they got in - By being virtually unbeatable at home and picking up a couple wins on the road. Russell Wilson grew up a lot in his rookie season and with Marshawn Lynch running the ball, the defense was able to attack opponents at will, which they did with remarkable precision.
Strengths - The defense is without a doubt the strength of this team, but the offense is catching up quick. Can't overlook the coaching job done by Pete Carroll either.
Weaknesses - Road games. This team was 8-0 at home, but 3-5 on the road where they looked far-less aggressive. If this team had a better seeding, they'd be a virtual lock.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - As stated before, would be much higher if they were at home, as is, they'll give the Redskins all they can handle.
6. Minnesota Vikings
How they got in - By beating the Packers in their final game behind Adrian Peterson and a competent performance from Christian Ponder. They did just enough to get in, but I can't seem them making much noise this year.
Strengths - Peterson. His run at the rushing record was awe-inspiring, especially when a year ago he was recovering from surgery on his torn ACL.
Weaknesses - Ponder hasn't shown he can consistently perform at this level and while the defense can get after the quarterback, they aren't very good at stopping the run.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - The only slim-to-none team in the playoffs. Getting past the Packers in Lambeau is going to be very difficult.
And now we get to the picks!
Saturday
Cincinnati (10-6) at Houston (12-4) - 4:30pm NBC
At this point, have the Bengals grown enough to win in the first round? Have they figured out how to beat an elite team on the road? The Bengals haven't won a playoff game since the 80's and would look to be difficult to get that first win against the Texans, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Ah, but last year is just that: last year, and this year the Bengals are on a roll heading in. Andy Dalton hasn't always performed well this season, but his play of late has been much better. Benjarvis Green-Ellis isn't healthy, but the Bengals need him to run well against a good Texans defense.
Luckily for the Bengals, the Texans have been struggling going into the playoffs and defensively haven't been very good since Brian Cushing went down earlier in the year. JJ Watt has had an outstanding season, but the if the Bengals can control him, they have a great shot at winning this game. Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson have had great years, but if the Texans fall behind, they have trouble catching up.
Pick: Bengals 27, Texans 23
Minnesota (10-6) at Green Bay (11-5) - 8pm NBC
I know the Vikings just beat the Packers behind Adrian Peterson and his run at the rushing record (sorry, couldn't resist that one). He came up 9 yards short, but the Vikings got the win and a trip to the playoffs when a few weeks ago many wondered if they'd finish with a winning record. Christian Ponder won't wow you, but he's been good enough lately to make some plays and keep the Vikings in the game.
Aaron Rodgers is going to want to avenge that final game though. He was rattled by the pressure by the Vikings at times, but still led the Packers to 34 points and a chance at victory. Instead, he watched as the Vikings ran the ball down the field to kick the game winning field goal. This game though is at Lambeau Field, where the Packers don't lose often in the playoffs. The Packers will try to make an early statement.
Pick: Packers 31, Vikings 20
Sunday
Indianapolis (11-5) at Baltimore (10-6) - 1pm CBS
It's not often that a team finishes with a better record than its opponent and is an underdog, but that's just what the Colts are. They've also been a fantastic story from the remarkable turnaround from last year to Chuck Pagano's battle with leukemia. They were 1-3 when he left the team to be treated and all Bruce Arians did was go 9-3 in relief before Pagano returned for the final game. Andrew Luck was as good as advertised and the Colts pulled out several wins that they frankly should've lost.
Unfortunately, luck eventually runs out and if the Ravens can find some inspiration behind Ray Lewis declaring he's retiring after this season, it could be a long day for the Colts in Baltimore. The Ravens were good at home and that will be one advantage they have. Another is Ray Rice against a poor run defense and if Jim Caldwell has any sense, he'll have Joe Flacco hand the ball off repeatedly to Rice. Regardless, this is a game that the Ravens should win.
Pick: Ravens 27, Colts 23
Seattle (11-5) at Washington (10-6) - 4:30pm FOX
This is one of the most unlikely playoff matchups in recent memory. Neither team was expected to make the playoffs, just be better than the previous year. Now here we are, getting ready to watch the Seahawks face the Redskins. The Seahawks have played tremendous defense all year long and Russell Wilson has continued to improve throughout the season to the point that many believe he's a potential superstar. Their problem tends to be playing on the road, which is what they have to do in this matchup.
The Redskins were dead and buried at 3-6 earlier in the season. Then they went 7-0 to finish the season, watching Robert Griffin III grit his teeth through injury to lead the Redskins to the playoffs. Even sweeter was knocking out the Cowboys to win the division. Now RGIII gets his chance to shine on the playoff stage and I don't think he'll disappoint. Coupled with Alfred Morris, this is a dangerous team to face. The Seahawks defense may finally break this week.
Pick: Redskins 20, Seahawks 17
Season: 124-48-1
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)