Yes, yes it has.
Apologies are in order, but there just hasn't been a lot of time to sit down and write anything at all.
Let's recap things though.
My girlfriend was pregnant, but no more as my first child was born on May 19th. Kylie Brooke is growing by the day and is quite rowdy in the morning, much to our chagrin. Overall she's a lot of fun and it's been amazing watching her personality start to really show. Even if she is a fiery red-head.
Speaking of Rachel, we just passed our 2 year anniversary last month (June 11th to be exact). I couldn't ask for a better girlfriend and mother of my child. Payton drives me crazy sometimes, but when she's not being bad (and she's been something else of late), she's a lot of fun as well.
We moved last week from our old apartment into a much bigger one, which has been a blessing since the extra space seems to have calmed our rowdy dog Ogimaa down quite a bit. Both dogs seem to enjoy the extra space and it's made things somewhat easier.
BTW, moving stinks.
A lot has happened in the sports world as well. The Indians signed Michael Bourne and Nick Swisher as well as traded for Drew Stubbs to bolster the offense. They added depth with Mike Avilas and Ryan Raburn, and if the bullpen hadn't been shaky, they'd probably still be in first place.
The Miami Heat won their second straight title last month, which probably shouldn't have happened given the San Antonio Spurs had a 3-2 lead in the series at one point.
Which is what I want to get into. The Cavs have made some moves this off-season in the draft and in free agency. Obviously the Andrew Bynum signing is the big story, but the bigger story that won't go away is the possible return of LeBron James via free agency next year. Many find it hard to believe that Dan Gilbert would go for resigning LeBron after how he left the franchise dangling, but some think if he wants to come back, you go for it.
I personally would rather see the Cavs try to continue to build around Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters, but ultimately it's not up to us as fans to determine what they decide to do. They may very well be preparing themselves to take a shot at LeBron, but they may also be looking at some of the other big free agents getting set to hit the market next year as well.
The LeBron thing is frankly over done. He left three years ago. He's won two titles, lost one, and won two Finals MVP awards. On the court, he very well could go down as the best player to ever play the game. His game continues to evolve and he seems to be driven by the way he's perceived nationally.
Of course, ESPN is in love with the idea of LeBron courting the Cavs. Then again, ESPN seems to revel in our misery, often taking every chance they get to remind us of our worst sports moments. They've already put up projected lineups if LeBron signed back with the Cavs.
While many Clevelanders were wondering why the Sports Gods continued to torture us by letting our most hated villians continue to win, I shrugged it all off. Sure, I wanted the Heat to lose. I find the way they built that team to be atrocious and completely wrong. I'm almost certain there was an agreement made to put that team together to form a super team. I'm just as appalled that other teams tried to follow the same path.
In the end, LeBron is a two-time champion. We as fans don't have to like it, but it's happened. If the Heat stay as they are, they'll probably win at least two more, if not more. It is what it is. My hatred towards LeBron is almost non-existent at this point as there's no point to it anymore. I'd rather pay attention to what Chris Grant is attempting to build at the moment and think about all the potential that this group could have.
I'd rather look at the Indians, who while wildly streaky, have been a ton of fun to watch so far. Jason Kipnis has recovered from his early season troubles to put together a solid first half and Danny Salazar put on a tantalizing performance yesterday in his Major League debut.
Hell, even the Browns are intriguing with the moves they made (if you ignore all that legal trouble Jimmy Haslam is in right now). New coaches, new staff, new players, and a new system could make things interesting.
But LeBron? Talk to me after he's decided where he's playing next off-season.
Quick Hits
The signing of Bynum is a risk/reward type of scenario. If he's healthy and plays, the Cavs are likely a playoff team and a dangerous one at that. He'd also be in line for a HUGE payout, one I doubt the Cavs would pursue. If he's not, they're only out $6 million but likely miss the postseason again. I'm not a fan of Bynum, but this is such a low-risk move that I can't complain about it.
If Vinnie Pestano isn't healthy, he's not helping the team with how he's performed. He came out recently and said he's been trying too hard to miss bats, rather than trust his pitches, but the guy has clearly been off much of this season. If it's mental, it may never go away and given the situation with Chris Perez and the overall uncertainty of the bullpen, that spells big trouble.
Miguel Cabrera is one of the best hitters in the game, but he's awful whiny for my tastes. It seems he's another one of those players who believes you aren't allowed to pitch him inside and whenever something happens he disagrees with, he begins chirping away. Cabrera is a special talent, but his mouth sometimes overshadows his bat and that's a bad thing.
Rumors continue to swirl that Haslam might have to sell the Browns, but I continue to wonder how the NFL missed him being investigated by the FBI. This seems like something that should've come up at some point, but recent reports have come out that former owner Art Modell at some points barely had full ownership of the Browns and had to scramble much more often to keep the team than most of us previously knew.
With the trading deadline looming and no real big names being made available, this could be one of the less spectacular deadlines in MLB history, although that can change in a hurry. I just don't see anything real big happening at this point in time. Too many teams are in contention and the ones that aren't don't exactly have the most appealing pieces to offer. Let's see if someone gets desperate.
Several Cavs players are in Las Vegas getting work in even though they aren't playing in the summer league and that's highly encouraging. Even more encouraging is new Cavalier Jarrett Jack heading out there as well the same day he officially signed his contract. Jack has often been underappreciated where he's been at but could be a very key piece to this year's team. The influence he could have on Irving and Waiters is just as important as the way he plays.
Finally, for those of you who still don't know, I play a game called Minecraft and record it. I then put the videos up on YouTube for all to enjoy. My channel is at http://www.youtube.com/user/kreald1980 You should check it out. Rachel and I are also participating in the Warrior Dash again. We'll be raising money for St. Jude so go to http://www.stjudewarriors.org/dkreal1980 and donate.
Hopefully it doesn't take 6 months to write again....
Friday, July 12, 2013
Thursday, January 17, 2013
The Sports Mixer - Some picks and overblown news stories
Before I get into my picks for the championship round of the playoffs, let me talk about the two predominant sports stories making the rounds over the last 24 hours.
No, this isn't me stalling because I still haven't decided on who to pick (although that may play a small role in opening with these stories rather than finishing the post with them), but rather me wanting to not talk about these things by talking about them.
Confused?
Good.
The Manti Te'o is perhaps the most annoying story to come out in a long while. Now, I had the opportunity to watch the BCS National Championship game in which Te'o was abused repeatedly by the Alabama offense and appeared to be at least a step slower than the opposing players. As I watched, I tried to figure out how *that* guy ended up finishing second in Heisman voting and how it was as close as it was. He just didn't seem like he belonged on the field, much like the rest of his teammates.
Now the feel-good story about the deaths of his grandmother and girlfriend motivating his play is turning out to be half-true with the revelation that his alleged girlfriend didn't exist. Depending on what the truth ends up being, he was either the victim of a particularly cruel hoax, or played a role in the scam in hopes of increasing his public persona. Of course, one former teammate has already come out and said that a lot of his teammates were skeptical of the girlfriend story, while others are standing up for him (which is another set of issues; I know news outlets are desperate for information and some want attention so badly, but if you were a teammate of someone, why speak out against him?).
Either way, I could care less. If it was a hoax he didn't know about shame on them for doing this to a trusting person. Let him recover and stop talking about it. If he was in on it, stop talking about it! All you're doing is giving him more of the attention he's seeking.
While there are legitimate questions about whether this hurts his draft stock, to me the damage was done in the BCS game when he was abused by the Alabama offense thoroughly. That game, not this worthless story, is what makes me doubt if he's an NFL-caliber player. If he had come up big on the biggest stage, I'd be saying he's a top-five pick. That game leads me to believe anything about the third round is a reach now.
The other story is Chip Kelly going to the Philadelphia Eagles a week after he decided he was going to stay at Oregon. Some, notably those in the Cleveland media, believe the Cleveland Browns should feel scorned or be bothered by this. After all, it is Joe Banner's former team signing Kelly when it was clear the Browns were after him. Me? I don't think they should feel scorned, nor should any fan. They shouldn't be bothered by this at all.
If Kelly wanted to coach the Browns, he'd already have his coaching staff in place and be talking about players to bring in. Instead, it's Rob Chudzinski that's setting up his coaching staff and I'm fine with that. He wants to coach here, he helped Cam Newton put up some impressive numbers at Carolina, and he was the offensive coordinator the last time the Browns had any semblance of a real offense in town. Give him a chance.
But feel spurned by Kelly? The guy may end up being a great coach. You don't know that yet. But I'm not comfortable with a guy who left the Tamba Bay Buccaneers hanging last year, then flirted with the Browns, Bill, and Eagles before deciding he was staying at Oregon, then two days after visiting a recruit, leaves the Ducks to coach the Eagles.
I'm good on that.
Phew.
Now that that's out of the way, let's talk about Championship Sunday, shall we?
San Francisco at Atlanta - 3pm FOX
The 49ers saw one of the most amazing postseason performances put on in recent memory by Colin Kaepernick. He not only threw the ball well, he ran for 181 yards as he did whatever he wanted against the Packers' defense, which really isn't saying much given that the Packers never ONCE adjusted to what the 49ers were doing. Kaepernick has really been remarkable though. He's managed to turn Michael Crabtree into a legitimate receiving threat after appearing to be a semi-bust with Alex Smith as quarterback. That defense isn't performing as well though and that's a concern going against an offense that has a good quarterback, outstanding receivers, a legend at tight end, and a rejuvenated running back. Sure, some of the 31 points given up were just because that was the pace of the game, but the pass rush hasn't been there of late.
The Falcons appeared to be cruising against the Seahawks. They had a 20-0 lead at halftime, and then kept the lead at 20 points at 27-7 after a Seahawks score. It was midway through the third quarter and it was just a formality, right? Well, the Seahawks should've pulled out the victory. They scored 21 unanswered points to take a 28-27 lead with 31 seconds left. 31 seconds. That's what, three or four plays if you're lucky, right? Well, three plays later, Matt Bryant was kicking the game-winning field goal through the uprights from 49 yards out. What should be noted is that Pete Carroll had iced the kicker with a timeout, so of course he missed that kick and was given a second chance, which he used to adjust and make the kick. You can't discount the two throws Matt Ryan made with little time to go. 22 yards on the first one, 19 on the second one, and boom the Falcons were in range to win the game. Ryan has been unflappable this year in those situations, leading the Falcons to multiple wins when they should've lost.
I just don't know which way to go with this one; do I look at the dominant offensive performance of Kaepernick and go with the 49ers? Do I go with the never say die mentality brought by Ryan? I suppose in this case, the tie goes to the home team.
Pick: Falcons 31, 49ers 27
Baltimore at New England - 6:30pm CBS
The Ravens surprised everyone by winning against the Broncos in double-overtime. It took a miracle throw from Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones to do, but they did it and the Ray Lewis retirement tour gets to make at least one more stop, this time in New England where they won earlier this season. You can't deny the Ravens played inspired, never quit, and played until the final kick went through the uprights, but they needed that miracle throw to even force overtime in the first place. Fact is, the defense was getting gashed by Peyton Manning and the Broncos most of the afternoon, then once the offense rescued them, stood tall in overtime. They'll need a much stronger showing against the Patriots, who are completely clicking on all cyclinders.
The Patriots aren't a strong defensive team, but it seems like every week they're up big before their opponent even knows what hit them and for the second time this season, they were whipping the Houston Texans, forcing the Texans to play catch-up, which isn't their strength. Tom Brady doesn't let up off the accelerator either, continuing to go for big plays even when the Pats are up big. This is a team that goes for the kill every chance they get and it's hard to think the Ravens will slow them down.
Truth is, I'm trying to find reasons to pick the Ravens and it's not easy. Maybe the Ray Lewis retirement tour is enough to get them back in the Super Bowl, but it might take another miracle from Flacco and the offense.
Pick: Ravens 30, Patriots 28
Last: 2-2
Overall: 4-4
No, this isn't me stalling because I still haven't decided on who to pick (although that may play a small role in opening with these stories rather than finishing the post with them), but rather me wanting to not talk about these things by talking about them.
Confused?
Good.
The Manti Te'o is perhaps the most annoying story to come out in a long while. Now, I had the opportunity to watch the BCS National Championship game in which Te'o was abused repeatedly by the Alabama offense and appeared to be at least a step slower than the opposing players. As I watched, I tried to figure out how *that* guy ended up finishing second in Heisman voting and how it was as close as it was. He just didn't seem like he belonged on the field, much like the rest of his teammates.
Now the feel-good story about the deaths of his grandmother and girlfriend motivating his play is turning out to be half-true with the revelation that his alleged girlfriend didn't exist. Depending on what the truth ends up being, he was either the victim of a particularly cruel hoax, or played a role in the scam in hopes of increasing his public persona. Of course, one former teammate has already come out and said that a lot of his teammates were skeptical of the girlfriend story, while others are standing up for him (which is another set of issues; I know news outlets are desperate for information and some want attention so badly, but if you were a teammate of someone, why speak out against him?).
Either way, I could care less. If it was a hoax he didn't know about shame on them for doing this to a trusting person. Let him recover and stop talking about it. If he was in on it, stop talking about it! All you're doing is giving him more of the attention he's seeking.
While there are legitimate questions about whether this hurts his draft stock, to me the damage was done in the BCS game when he was abused by the Alabama offense thoroughly. That game, not this worthless story, is what makes me doubt if he's an NFL-caliber player. If he had come up big on the biggest stage, I'd be saying he's a top-five pick. That game leads me to believe anything about the third round is a reach now.
The other story is Chip Kelly going to the Philadelphia Eagles a week after he decided he was going to stay at Oregon. Some, notably those in the Cleveland media, believe the Cleveland Browns should feel scorned or be bothered by this. After all, it is Joe Banner's former team signing Kelly when it was clear the Browns were after him. Me? I don't think they should feel scorned, nor should any fan. They shouldn't be bothered by this at all.
If Kelly wanted to coach the Browns, he'd already have his coaching staff in place and be talking about players to bring in. Instead, it's Rob Chudzinski that's setting up his coaching staff and I'm fine with that. He wants to coach here, he helped Cam Newton put up some impressive numbers at Carolina, and he was the offensive coordinator the last time the Browns had any semblance of a real offense in town. Give him a chance.
But feel spurned by Kelly? The guy may end up being a great coach. You don't know that yet. But I'm not comfortable with a guy who left the Tamba Bay Buccaneers hanging last year, then flirted with the Browns, Bill, and Eagles before deciding he was staying at Oregon, then two days after visiting a recruit, leaves the Ducks to coach the Eagles.
I'm good on that.
Phew.
Now that that's out of the way, let's talk about Championship Sunday, shall we?
San Francisco at Atlanta - 3pm FOX
The 49ers saw one of the most amazing postseason performances put on in recent memory by Colin Kaepernick. He not only threw the ball well, he ran for 181 yards as he did whatever he wanted against the Packers' defense, which really isn't saying much given that the Packers never ONCE adjusted to what the 49ers were doing. Kaepernick has really been remarkable though. He's managed to turn Michael Crabtree into a legitimate receiving threat after appearing to be a semi-bust with Alex Smith as quarterback. That defense isn't performing as well though and that's a concern going against an offense that has a good quarterback, outstanding receivers, a legend at tight end, and a rejuvenated running back. Sure, some of the 31 points given up were just because that was the pace of the game, but the pass rush hasn't been there of late.
The Falcons appeared to be cruising against the Seahawks. They had a 20-0 lead at halftime, and then kept the lead at 20 points at 27-7 after a Seahawks score. It was midway through the third quarter and it was just a formality, right? Well, the Seahawks should've pulled out the victory. They scored 21 unanswered points to take a 28-27 lead with 31 seconds left. 31 seconds. That's what, three or four plays if you're lucky, right? Well, three plays later, Matt Bryant was kicking the game-winning field goal through the uprights from 49 yards out. What should be noted is that Pete Carroll had iced the kicker with a timeout, so of course he missed that kick and was given a second chance, which he used to adjust and make the kick. You can't discount the two throws Matt Ryan made with little time to go. 22 yards on the first one, 19 on the second one, and boom the Falcons were in range to win the game. Ryan has been unflappable this year in those situations, leading the Falcons to multiple wins when they should've lost.
I just don't know which way to go with this one; do I look at the dominant offensive performance of Kaepernick and go with the 49ers? Do I go with the never say die mentality brought by Ryan? I suppose in this case, the tie goes to the home team.
Pick: Falcons 31, 49ers 27
Baltimore at New England - 6:30pm CBS
The Ravens surprised everyone by winning against the Broncos in double-overtime. It took a miracle throw from Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones to do, but they did it and the Ray Lewis retirement tour gets to make at least one more stop, this time in New England where they won earlier this season. You can't deny the Ravens played inspired, never quit, and played until the final kick went through the uprights, but they needed that miracle throw to even force overtime in the first place. Fact is, the defense was getting gashed by Peyton Manning and the Broncos most of the afternoon, then once the offense rescued them, stood tall in overtime. They'll need a much stronger showing against the Patriots, who are completely clicking on all cyclinders.
The Patriots aren't a strong defensive team, but it seems like every week they're up big before their opponent even knows what hit them and for the second time this season, they were whipping the Houston Texans, forcing the Texans to play catch-up, which isn't their strength. Tom Brady doesn't let up off the accelerator either, continuing to go for big plays even when the Pats are up big. This is a team that goes for the kill every chance they get and it's hard to think the Ravens will slow them down.
Truth is, I'm trying to find reasons to pick the Ravens and it's not easy. Maybe the Ray Lewis retirement tour is enough to get them back in the Super Bowl, but it might take another miracle from Flacco and the offense.
Pick: Ravens 30, Patriots 28
Last: 2-2
Overall: 4-4
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
The Sports Mixer - Divisional Playoff Picks
The playoffs are the most difficult picks to make. Teams that appear to be red-hot often cool dramatically when the playoffs start as the pressure ramps the intensity of things up significantly. Teams that were dominant in the regular season wilt under all the pressure the playoffs bring.
For example, the Cincinnati Bengals were on a roll heading into the playoffs while the Houston Texans were faltering. The Texans didn't exactly roll offensively, but their defense did a number on the Bengals and helped them cruise to victory. Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts had been one of the best stories in recent memory, but the Baltimore Ravens turned them to dust as Ray Lewis played his final home game in his long career.
The Minnesota Vikings had outlasted the Green Bay Packers in the regular season finale as Adrian Peterson ran over and through Packers' defenders as if they weren't there, and while he still racked up some good numbers, with Christian Ponder sidelined the Vikings had no offensive answer for the Packers and lost. Meanwhile the Seattle Seahawks spotted the Washington Redskins 14 points before dominating defensively. The injury to Robert Griffin III made things easier, but they still dominated a previously good running game.
The performance makes their upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons much more difficult to predict. Additionally, teams coming off the bye haven't been as sharp in recent years so do you compensate for that factor? Particularly challenging is the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers. The 49ers have been good against elite competition this year, but also can potentially falter when least expected. The Packers can put up numbers, but can the offensive line protect Aaron Rodgers against a very good pass-rush?
Let's find out, shall we?
Saturday
Baltimore (10-6) at Denver (13-3) - 4:30pm CBS
The Ravens needed that first win as much as any team entering the playoffs having lost three of their final four to back into the third seed. Their reward was a very green Colts team that just wasn't able to overcome the return of Ray Lewis to a maligned defensive unit. The Ravens dominated the Colts on both sides of the ball and seemed like a different team. The Colts overachieved all season long, there's no doubt about that, but the Ravens removed the doubt early on. Now they travel to Denver where they lost by 17 points earlier in the season. Additionally, Peyton Manning has a personal nine game winning streak going against the Ravens. Once again, the odds are stacked against the Ravens and I have a hard time seeing them overcome them.
The Broncos ended the season on fire, having won eleven straight games and thoroughly dominating opponents by the last quarter of the season. Peyton Manning continues to defy the odds in that he doesn't look like a guy coming off multiple neck surgeries and one missed season. He has complete control of the Denver offense and runs it at a high tempo to keep defensives on their heels. Not to be outdone, the Broncos' defense has shined led by Von Miller. Finally, this game being in Denver tilts things in the favor of the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 23
Green Bay (11-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1) - 8pm FOX
The Packers exacted revenge against the Vikings for knocking them out of the second seed with their win last week. Defensively they were as good as they'd been all year, although Adrian Peterson still picked up 99 yards, it was a dramatic improvement over the previous two meetings. It helped that Christian Ponder was out, leaving the keys to the offense in the hands of Joe Webb, who had a very tough time throwing the ball. On the other side, the Packers offensive line held up long enough for Aaron Rodgers to get the ball downfield and the running game was just good enough to help with play-action.
The 49ers have one advantage in this game, and it's their defense which excels at getting pressure on the quarterback. Combine that against a shaky offensive line on Green Bay and you have the opportunity for a big game for the defensive line. Colin Kaepernick has been up and down, but he possesses a far-better arm that Webb and if Frank Gore is running hard, the 49ers can control the game and keep Rodgers off the field. That's going to be the biggest key in this game. If they can pressure Rodgers and control the ball, the 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.
Pick: 49ers 23, Packers 20
Sunday
Seattle (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3) - 1pm FOX
This was the toughest game to pick. The Seahawks have been on some kind of roll for several weeks now, but I was betting on RGIII having a big game in his postseason debut. Instead, the Seahawks' defense swarmed the Redskins offense and made life difficult. The Seahawks offense meanwhile was efficient behind Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, who seems to shine brightest in the playoffs (remember his rumbling touchdown against the Saints a couple years back?). They're starting to play as well on the road as they have at home, which is big since they won't get a home game this postseason. They get to go to Atlanta this week and take on one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons are a team that I worry about coming off the bye. Until late in the season, they had struggled at times, yet found ways to win, especially against inferior opponents. Seattle is not inferior and their pass defense is very good, which will challenge Matt Ryan. Luckily, he has Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez to throw passes to, which offsets a relatively weak running game. Ryan can be flustered and has yet to win a playoff game, so this is a big test for him in his march towards elite status. He's flamed out too many times in the playoffs, so it's time for him to step up. I just don't know if he can overcome the roll the Seahawks have been on.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17
Houston (12-4) at New England (12-4) - 4:30pm CBS
This is potentially the best matchup of the weekend as the Texans look to avenge one of the worst losses for them in the regular season, a 42-17 blowout at the hands of the Patriots in Foxboro. Matt Schaub made a solid, if unspectacular playoff debut last week against a good Bengals defense, but his play was sporadic enough to leave question marks about his performance. Arian Foster has been carrying the Texans for two years though, and if he can continue to run well, the Texans will have a chance. They can't fall behind early again like they did last time or it'll be a long evening in New England.
The Patriots seem as ready as they've ever been for a long playoff run. After some early season stumbles and questions about how much Tom Brady has left in the tank, the Patriots went on a tear, consistently beating good teams badly, their only stumble being against the 49ers, and even then they nearly pulled off an incredible comeback. Bill Belichick will have this team ready to go and it could be a long day again for the Texans.
Pick: Patriots 34, Texans 24
Last week: 2-2
For example, the Cincinnati Bengals were on a roll heading into the playoffs while the Houston Texans were faltering. The Texans didn't exactly roll offensively, but their defense did a number on the Bengals and helped them cruise to victory. Similarly, the Indianapolis Colts had been one of the best stories in recent memory, but the Baltimore Ravens turned them to dust as Ray Lewis played his final home game in his long career.
The Minnesota Vikings had outlasted the Green Bay Packers in the regular season finale as Adrian Peterson ran over and through Packers' defenders as if they weren't there, and while he still racked up some good numbers, with Christian Ponder sidelined the Vikings had no offensive answer for the Packers and lost. Meanwhile the Seattle Seahawks spotted the Washington Redskins 14 points before dominating defensively. The injury to Robert Griffin III made things easier, but they still dominated a previously good running game.
The performance makes their upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons much more difficult to predict. Additionally, teams coming off the bye haven't been as sharp in recent years so do you compensate for that factor? Particularly challenging is the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers. The 49ers have been good against elite competition this year, but also can potentially falter when least expected. The Packers can put up numbers, but can the offensive line protect Aaron Rodgers against a very good pass-rush?
Let's find out, shall we?
Saturday
Baltimore (10-6) at Denver (13-3) - 4:30pm CBS
The Ravens needed that first win as much as any team entering the playoffs having lost three of their final four to back into the third seed. Their reward was a very green Colts team that just wasn't able to overcome the return of Ray Lewis to a maligned defensive unit. The Ravens dominated the Colts on both sides of the ball and seemed like a different team. The Colts overachieved all season long, there's no doubt about that, but the Ravens removed the doubt early on. Now they travel to Denver where they lost by 17 points earlier in the season. Additionally, Peyton Manning has a personal nine game winning streak going against the Ravens. Once again, the odds are stacked against the Ravens and I have a hard time seeing them overcome them.
The Broncos ended the season on fire, having won eleven straight games and thoroughly dominating opponents by the last quarter of the season. Peyton Manning continues to defy the odds in that he doesn't look like a guy coming off multiple neck surgeries and one missed season. He has complete control of the Denver offense and runs it at a high tempo to keep defensives on their heels. Not to be outdone, the Broncos' defense has shined led by Von Miller. Finally, this game being in Denver tilts things in the favor of the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 23
Green Bay (11-5) at San Francisco (11-4-1) - 8pm FOX
The Packers exacted revenge against the Vikings for knocking them out of the second seed with their win last week. Defensively they were as good as they'd been all year, although Adrian Peterson still picked up 99 yards, it was a dramatic improvement over the previous two meetings. It helped that Christian Ponder was out, leaving the keys to the offense in the hands of Joe Webb, who had a very tough time throwing the ball. On the other side, the Packers offensive line held up long enough for Aaron Rodgers to get the ball downfield and the running game was just good enough to help with play-action.
The 49ers have one advantage in this game, and it's their defense which excels at getting pressure on the quarterback. Combine that against a shaky offensive line on Green Bay and you have the opportunity for a big game for the defensive line. Colin Kaepernick has been up and down, but he possesses a far-better arm that Webb and if Frank Gore is running hard, the 49ers can control the game and keep Rodgers off the field. That's going to be the biggest key in this game. If they can pressure Rodgers and control the ball, the 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.
Pick: 49ers 23, Packers 20
Sunday
Seattle (11-5) at Atlanta (13-3) - 1pm FOX
This was the toughest game to pick. The Seahawks have been on some kind of roll for several weeks now, but I was betting on RGIII having a big game in his postseason debut. Instead, the Seahawks' defense swarmed the Redskins offense and made life difficult. The Seahawks offense meanwhile was efficient behind Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, who seems to shine brightest in the playoffs (remember his rumbling touchdown against the Saints a couple years back?). They're starting to play as well on the road as they have at home, which is big since they won't get a home game this postseason. They get to go to Atlanta this week and take on one of the better passing offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons are a team that I worry about coming off the bye. Until late in the season, they had struggled at times, yet found ways to win, especially against inferior opponents. Seattle is not inferior and their pass defense is very good, which will challenge Matt Ryan. Luckily, he has Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez to throw passes to, which offsets a relatively weak running game. Ryan can be flustered and has yet to win a playoff game, so this is a big test for him in his march towards elite status. He's flamed out too many times in the playoffs, so it's time for him to step up. I just don't know if he can overcome the roll the Seahawks have been on.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17
Houston (12-4) at New England (12-4) - 4:30pm CBS
This is potentially the best matchup of the weekend as the Texans look to avenge one of the worst losses for them in the regular season, a 42-17 blowout at the hands of the Patriots in Foxboro. Matt Schaub made a solid, if unspectacular playoff debut last week against a good Bengals defense, but his play was sporadic enough to leave question marks about his performance. Arian Foster has been carrying the Texans for two years though, and if he can continue to run well, the Texans will have a chance. They can't fall behind early again like they did last time or it'll be a long evening in New England.
The Patriots seem as ready as they've ever been for a long playoff run. After some early season stumbles and questions about how much Tom Brady has left in the tank, the Patriots went on a tear, consistently beating good teams badly, their only stumble being against the 49ers, and even then they nearly pulled off an incredible comeback. Bill Belichick will have this team ready to go and it could be a long day again for the Texans.
Pick: Patriots 34, Texans 24
Last week: 2-2
Friday, January 4, 2013
The Sports Mixer NFL Playoff Primer
The Sports Mixer is back after taking a couple of weeks off due to the holiday rush and generally not having time in general to get any writing done.
I know, it's weak, but it's the best excuse I can offer up.
After missing the final two weeks of picks, I'm back not only to prepare you for the playoffs, but offer up my picks for the Wildcard round of the playoffs, which could be the most competitive round we've seen in years.
To begin, we'll look at each team that made the playoffs and talk about how they made it, their strengths, their weaknesses, and what chance they have at actually making it to the promised land. Will we see another sixth-seeded wildcard team make the Super Bowl this year? Seems unlikely but in the playoffs, the hottest team wins.
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
How they got in - the Broncos enter the playoffs as the hottest team in football. They won their final eleven games in convincing fashion to literally waltz into the postseason. They vaulted into the top seed thanks to the Texans and Ravens faltering down the stretch and the arm of Peyton Manning, who seems to have lost nothing from his multiple neck surgeries.
Strengths - the arm of Manning and a physical defense that took down even the most stout of offensive lines.
Weaknesses - It's hard to find something that the Broncos weren't good at. If there is a weakness, it's the secondary isn't very deep, but that tends to be true of most teams. There's also the concern of Manning if he gets hit the wrong way given his recent neck issues.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Probably the highest of any team, although Manning tends to suffer in the playoffs historically.
2. New England Patriots
How they got in - the Patriots also finished hot, winning 9 of their last 10, and almost made it more by nearly pulling off the improbable comeback against the 49ers. It doesn't seem to matter that Tom Brady is getting older; Bill Belichick's teams always seem to find a way and this year has been no different. He's retooled his defense, put together an impressive array of running backs, and finds players that others toss aside.
Strengths - Brady, Belichick, and the supporting roster. This team has been in the playoffs multiple times and won't have a deer in headlights look to it.
Weaknesses - The secondary can be soft and give up big plays. Also, aside from Danny Woodhead, none of their running backs is exceptionally experienced in posteason play.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Up there simply because Brady and Belichick will be ready. The Patriots haven't been to multiple Super Bowls on accident after all.
3. Houston Texans
How they got in - They pretty much backed in by getting hot early in the season, then faltered down the stretch. They lost 3 out of their last four, the lone win coming at home against the Colts. If they want to advance, they'll need to snap out of the funk that dropped them from top seed to the third seed facing the Bengals again in the opening round.
Strengths - Arian Foster and Andre Johnson on offense and JJ Watt on defense. That said, this team hasn't been the same defensively since Brian Cushing went down with a season-ending injury.
Weaknesses - As hard as it is to say this, Matt Schaub is a weakness if the Texans fall behind big. He's just not capable of the quick-strike big play. The linebackers are a liability as well.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - were dramatically higher earlier in the season. Now they'll be lucky to make it out of the first round.
4. Baltimore Ravens
How they got in - Like Houston, they've backed their way into the playoffs, losing 4 out of 5 and looking very ragged. Things were so bad that Cam Cameron was tanked as offensive coordinator in favor of Jim Caldwell. Things did not improve however and Joe Flacco continues to raise questions if he's an elite quarterback.
Strengths - Ray Rice and if Ray Lewis returns, his energy will give the defense a boost it sorely needs. Torrey Smith needs to re-emerge as a big-play receiver as well.
Weaknesses - As odd as it seems, the defense has become a weakness for the Ravens, especially against the run. Overall, the defensive numbers are way down.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - This team seems flat right now and if they don't give themselves a jolt, will be watching someone else play. Right now the odds aren't good.
5. Indianapolis Colts
How they got in - On the arm of Andrew Luck and the emotion of the Chuck Pagano story that has riveted the league since it was announced he had leukemia. Now Pagano is back and it can't be overlooked the job that Bruce Arians did in his absence. The Colts may be the story of the year right now no matter what happens.
Strengths - Luck, obviously, and Reggie Wayne lead an overachieving offense that compensates for a porous defense. You can say that coaching has been a strength as well. No team has been more ready to play week in and week out.
Weaknesses - The run defense has been poor all year and the defense in generally can give up some big plays. The offense has overcome a lot of the mistakes though.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not great, but don't be surprised to see them make a run at it.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
How they got in - By winning 7 of their last 8 games with a stout defense and Andy Dalton limiting his mistakes on offense. He was an interception machine at the start of the season, but cut down on the picks and started finding AJ Green on a more consistent basis. Benjarvis Green-Ellis also provided a huge spark in the running game over the last several weeks.
Strengths - Dalton, Green, and a very good defensive line.
Weaknesses - The receiving corp behind Green is suspect and the secondary isn't the greatest either.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Six seeds always seem to surprise and this one could do the same if they get past the Texans.
NFC
1. Atlanta Falcons
How they got in - By absolutely controlling the NFC South until it didn't matter and they could coast into the playoffs. Matt Ryan continued to show why he could be considered an elite quarterback, pulling off a couple of comeback wins, but he'll need to win in the playoffs now. The Falcons have a solid defense to compliment a potentially explosive offense.
Strengths - Ryan, Roddy White, and Julio Jones lead an offense that can score quickly, or hold onto the ball with Michael Turner running.
Weaknesses - The defense should be more stout, but it hasn't been consistent. Turner also hasn't shown a ton of consistency.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - In a stacked NFC? Not as good as the Broncos in the AFC, but Ryan will be trying to prove he can take his team to the promised land.
2. San Francisco
How they got in - By barely controlling a division that was theirs for the taking until it was realized they couldn't win in their own division consistently. They beat the elite teams, but struggled against lesser competition, especially the St. Louis Rams. They get a bye but will likely struggle in their opening game.
Strengths - A physical defense that can dominate the opponent if clicking and Jim Harbaugh seems to work magic with players such as Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick.
Weaknesses - Offensively, if they can't run the ball, things seem to fall apart for the 49ers. Kaepernick has wowed at times, and at other times looked lost on the field. Frank Gore needs to run hard for the 49ers to advance very far.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not very good from this corner. Let's call it watching them look bad at the worst possible times.
3. Green Bay Packers
How they got in - By going 9-2 after starting 2-3, giving them the NFC North title and a home game against the Vikings, who they split two meetings with during the regular season. In any other year, they might be the best in the NFC, which only shows how tough the conference was this year.
Strengths - This one's easy: Aaron Rodgers and his compliment of receivers who catch most anything that comes near them.
Weaknesses - Also easy, it's a defense that improved during the year, but still can spring a leak at inopportune times. The offensive line has also left something to be desired, making Rodgers performances even more impressive.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - I'd almost give them better odds than the Falcons if their defense was better, but pretty good as is. If Rodgers gets hot, the rest of the NFC can just go home.
4. Washington Redskins
How they got in - RGIII, RGIII, Alfred Morris, and a brilliant coaching job by Mike Shanahan. Oh, and a defense that found itself in the second half of the season. The Redskins went from 3-6 and out of the hunt to 10-6 and winners of the NFC East. Oh, and they beat the Dallas Cowboys to finish the job. Not too shabby.
Strengths - Even hurt, Robert Griffin III is better than most players on the field. If he's managed to heal up some, this is a very dangerous team. Morris came out of the sixth round to rush for more than 1600 yards, far-surpassing any expectations.
Weaknesses - The defense improved, but I'm still not sold on them getting it done in the playoffs.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not great, but I think they'll cause plenty of trouble for anyone they face, including another dark horse in the Seahawks.
5. Seattle Seahawks
How they got in - By being virtually unbeatable at home and picking up a couple wins on the road. Russell Wilson grew up a lot in his rookie season and with Marshawn Lynch running the ball, the defense was able to attack opponents at will, which they did with remarkable precision.
Strengths - The defense is without a doubt the strength of this team, but the offense is catching up quick. Can't overlook the coaching job done by Pete Carroll either.
Weaknesses - Road games. This team was 8-0 at home, but 3-5 on the road where they looked far-less aggressive. If this team had a better seeding, they'd be a virtual lock.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - As stated before, would be much higher if they were at home, as is, they'll give the Redskins all they can handle.
6. Minnesota Vikings
How they got in - By beating the Packers in their final game behind Adrian Peterson and a competent performance from Christian Ponder. They did just enough to get in, but I can't seem them making much noise this year.
Strengths - Peterson. His run at the rushing record was awe-inspiring, especially when a year ago he was recovering from surgery on his torn ACL.
Weaknesses - Ponder hasn't shown he can consistently perform at this level and while the defense can get after the quarterback, they aren't very good at stopping the run.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - The only slim-to-none team in the playoffs. Getting past the Packers in Lambeau is going to be very difficult.
And now we get to the picks!
Saturday
Cincinnati (10-6) at Houston (12-4) - 4:30pm NBC
At this point, have the Bengals grown enough to win in the first round? Have they figured out how to beat an elite team on the road? The Bengals haven't won a playoff game since the 80's and would look to be difficult to get that first win against the Texans, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Ah, but last year is just that: last year, and this year the Bengals are on a roll heading in. Andy Dalton hasn't always performed well this season, but his play of late has been much better. Benjarvis Green-Ellis isn't healthy, but the Bengals need him to run well against a good Texans defense.
Luckily for the Bengals, the Texans have been struggling going into the playoffs and defensively haven't been very good since Brian Cushing went down earlier in the year. JJ Watt has had an outstanding season, but the if the Bengals can control him, they have a great shot at winning this game. Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson have had great years, but if the Texans fall behind, they have trouble catching up.
Pick: Bengals 27, Texans 23
Minnesota (10-6) at Green Bay (11-5) - 8pm NBC
I know the Vikings just beat the Packers behind Adrian Peterson and his run at the rushing record (sorry, couldn't resist that one). He came up 9 yards short, but the Vikings got the win and a trip to the playoffs when a few weeks ago many wondered if they'd finish with a winning record. Christian Ponder won't wow you, but he's been good enough lately to make some plays and keep the Vikings in the game.
Aaron Rodgers is going to want to avenge that final game though. He was rattled by the pressure by the Vikings at times, but still led the Packers to 34 points and a chance at victory. Instead, he watched as the Vikings ran the ball down the field to kick the game winning field goal. This game though is at Lambeau Field, where the Packers don't lose often in the playoffs. The Packers will try to make an early statement.
Pick: Packers 31, Vikings 20
Sunday
Indianapolis (11-5) at Baltimore (10-6) - 1pm CBS
It's not often that a team finishes with a better record than its opponent and is an underdog, but that's just what the Colts are. They've also been a fantastic story from the remarkable turnaround from last year to Chuck Pagano's battle with leukemia. They were 1-3 when he left the team to be treated and all Bruce Arians did was go 9-3 in relief before Pagano returned for the final game. Andrew Luck was as good as advertised and the Colts pulled out several wins that they frankly should've lost.
Unfortunately, luck eventually runs out and if the Ravens can find some inspiration behind Ray Lewis declaring he's retiring after this season, it could be a long day for the Colts in Baltimore. The Ravens were good at home and that will be one advantage they have. Another is Ray Rice against a poor run defense and if Jim Caldwell has any sense, he'll have Joe Flacco hand the ball off repeatedly to Rice. Regardless, this is a game that the Ravens should win.
Pick: Ravens 27, Colts 23
Seattle (11-5) at Washington (10-6) - 4:30pm FOX
This is one of the most unlikely playoff matchups in recent memory. Neither team was expected to make the playoffs, just be better than the previous year. Now here we are, getting ready to watch the Seahawks face the Redskins. The Seahawks have played tremendous defense all year long and Russell Wilson has continued to improve throughout the season to the point that many believe he's a potential superstar. Their problem tends to be playing on the road, which is what they have to do in this matchup.
The Redskins were dead and buried at 3-6 earlier in the season. Then they went 7-0 to finish the season, watching Robert Griffin III grit his teeth through injury to lead the Redskins to the playoffs. Even sweeter was knocking out the Cowboys to win the division. Now RGIII gets his chance to shine on the playoff stage and I don't think he'll disappoint. Coupled with Alfred Morris, this is a dangerous team to face. The Seahawks defense may finally break this week.
Pick: Redskins 20, Seahawks 17
Season: 124-48-1
I know, it's weak, but it's the best excuse I can offer up.
After missing the final two weeks of picks, I'm back not only to prepare you for the playoffs, but offer up my picks for the Wildcard round of the playoffs, which could be the most competitive round we've seen in years.
To begin, we'll look at each team that made the playoffs and talk about how they made it, their strengths, their weaknesses, and what chance they have at actually making it to the promised land. Will we see another sixth-seeded wildcard team make the Super Bowl this year? Seems unlikely but in the playoffs, the hottest team wins.
AFC
1. Denver Broncos
How they got in - the Broncos enter the playoffs as the hottest team in football. They won their final eleven games in convincing fashion to literally waltz into the postseason. They vaulted into the top seed thanks to the Texans and Ravens faltering down the stretch and the arm of Peyton Manning, who seems to have lost nothing from his multiple neck surgeries.
Strengths - the arm of Manning and a physical defense that took down even the most stout of offensive lines.
Weaknesses - It's hard to find something that the Broncos weren't good at. If there is a weakness, it's the secondary isn't very deep, but that tends to be true of most teams. There's also the concern of Manning if he gets hit the wrong way given his recent neck issues.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Probably the highest of any team, although Manning tends to suffer in the playoffs historically.
2. New England Patriots
How they got in - the Patriots also finished hot, winning 9 of their last 10, and almost made it more by nearly pulling off the improbable comeback against the 49ers. It doesn't seem to matter that Tom Brady is getting older; Bill Belichick's teams always seem to find a way and this year has been no different. He's retooled his defense, put together an impressive array of running backs, and finds players that others toss aside.
Strengths - Brady, Belichick, and the supporting roster. This team has been in the playoffs multiple times and won't have a deer in headlights look to it.
Weaknesses - The secondary can be soft and give up big plays. Also, aside from Danny Woodhead, none of their running backs is exceptionally experienced in posteason play.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Up there simply because Brady and Belichick will be ready. The Patriots haven't been to multiple Super Bowls on accident after all.
3. Houston Texans
How they got in - They pretty much backed in by getting hot early in the season, then faltered down the stretch. They lost 3 out of their last four, the lone win coming at home against the Colts. If they want to advance, they'll need to snap out of the funk that dropped them from top seed to the third seed facing the Bengals again in the opening round.
Strengths - Arian Foster and Andre Johnson on offense and JJ Watt on defense. That said, this team hasn't been the same defensively since Brian Cushing went down with a season-ending injury.
Weaknesses - As hard as it is to say this, Matt Schaub is a weakness if the Texans fall behind big. He's just not capable of the quick-strike big play. The linebackers are a liability as well.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - were dramatically higher earlier in the season. Now they'll be lucky to make it out of the first round.
4. Baltimore Ravens
How they got in - Like Houston, they've backed their way into the playoffs, losing 4 out of 5 and looking very ragged. Things were so bad that Cam Cameron was tanked as offensive coordinator in favor of Jim Caldwell. Things did not improve however and Joe Flacco continues to raise questions if he's an elite quarterback.
Strengths - Ray Rice and if Ray Lewis returns, his energy will give the defense a boost it sorely needs. Torrey Smith needs to re-emerge as a big-play receiver as well.
Weaknesses - As odd as it seems, the defense has become a weakness for the Ravens, especially against the run. Overall, the defensive numbers are way down.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - This team seems flat right now and if they don't give themselves a jolt, will be watching someone else play. Right now the odds aren't good.
5. Indianapolis Colts
How they got in - On the arm of Andrew Luck and the emotion of the Chuck Pagano story that has riveted the league since it was announced he had leukemia. Now Pagano is back and it can't be overlooked the job that Bruce Arians did in his absence. The Colts may be the story of the year right now no matter what happens.
Strengths - Luck, obviously, and Reggie Wayne lead an overachieving offense that compensates for a porous defense. You can say that coaching has been a strength as well. No team has been more ready to play week in and week out.
Weaknesses - The run defense has been poor all year and the defense in generally can give up some big plays. The offense has overcome a lot of the mistakes though.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not great, but don't be surprised to see them make a run at it.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
How they got in - By winning 7 of their last 8 games with a stout defense and Andy Dalton limiting his mistakes on offense. He was an interception machine at the start of the season, but cut down on the picks and started finding AJ Green on a more consistent basis. Benjarvis Green-Ellis also provided a huge spark in the running game over the last several weeks.
Strengths - Dalton, Green, and a very good defensive line.
Weaknesses - The receiving corp behind Green is suspect and the secondary isn't the greatest either.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Six seeds always seem to surprise and this one could do the same if they get past the Texans.
NFC
1. Atlanta Falcons
How they got in - By absolutely controlling the NFC South until it didn't matter and they could coast into the playoffs. Matt Ryan continued to show why he could be considered an elite quarterback, pulling off a couple of comeback wins, but he'll need to win in the playoffs now. The Falcons have a solid defense to compliment a potentially explosive offense.
Strengths - Ryan, Roddy White, and Julio Jones lead an offense that can score quickly, or hold onto the ball with Michael Turner running.
Weaknesses - The defense should be more stout, but it hasn't been consistent. Turner also hasn't shown a ton of consistency.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - In a stacked NFC? Not as good as the Broncos in the AFC, but Ryan will be trying to prove he can take his team to the promised land.
2. San Francisco
How they got in - By barely controlling a division that was theirs for the taking until it was realized they couldn't win in their own division consistently. They beat the elite teams, but struggled against lesser competition, especially the St. Louis Rams. They get a bye but will likely struggle in their opening game.
Strengths - A physical defense that can dominate the opponent if clicking and Jim Harbaugh seems to work magic with players such as Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick.
Weaknesses - Offensively, if they can't run the ball, things seem to fall apart for the 49ers. Kaepernick has wowed at times, and at other times looked lost on the field. Frank Gore needs to run hard for the 49ers to advance very far.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not very good from this corner. Let's call it watching them look bad at the worst possible times.
3. Green Bay Packers
How they got in - By going 9-2 after starting 2-3, giving them the NFC North title and a home game against the Vikings, who they split two meetings with during the regular season. In any other year, they might be the best in the NFC, which only shows how tough the conference was this year.
Strengths - This one's easy: Aaron Rodgers and his compliment of receivers who catch most anything that comes near them.
Weaknesses - Also easy, it's a defense that improved during the year, but still can spring a leak at inopportune times. The offensive line has also left something to be desired, making Rodgers performances even more impressive.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - I'd almost give them better odds than the Falcons if their defense was better, but pretty good as is. If Rodgers gets hot, the rest of the NFC can just go home.
4. Washington Redskins
How they got in - RGIII, RGIII, Alfred Morris, and a brilliant coaching job by Mike Shanahan. Oh, and a defense that found itself in the second half of the season. The Redskins went from 3-6 and out of the hunt to 10-6 and winners of the NFC East. Oh, and they beat the Dallas Cowboys to finish the job. Not too shabby.
Strengths - Even hurt, Robert Griffin III is better than most players on the field. If he's managed to heal up some, this is a very dangerous team. Morris came out of the sixth round to rush for more than 1600 yards, far-surpassing any expectations.
Weaknesses - The defense improved, but I'm still not sold on them getting it done in the playoffs.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - Not great, but I think they'll cause plenty of trouble for anyone they face, including another dark horse in the Seahawks.
5. Seattle Seahawks
How they got in - By being virtually unbeatable at home and picking up a couple wins on the road. Russell Wilson grew up a lot in his rookie season and with Marshawn Lynch running the ball, the defense was able to attack opponents at will, which they did with remarkable precision.
Strengths - The defense is without a doubt the strength of this team, but the offense is catching up quick. Can't overlook the coaching job done by Pete Carroll either.
Weaknesses - Road games. This team was 8-0 at home, but 3-5 on the road where they looked far-less aggressive. If this team had a better seeding, they'd be a virtual lock.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - As stated before, would be much higher if they were at home, as is, they'll give the Redskins all they can handle.
6. Minnesota Vikings
How they got in - By beating the Packers in their final game behind Adrian Peterson and a competent performance from Christian Ponder. They did just enough to get in, but I can't seem them making much noise this year.
Strengths - Peterson. His run at the rushing record was awe-inspiring, especially when a year ago he was recovering from surgery on his torn ACL.
Weaknesses - Ponder hasn't shown he can consistently perform at this level and while the defense can get after the quarterback, they aren't very good at stopping the run.
Chances of winning the Super Bowl - The only slim-to-none team in the playoffs. Getting past the Packers in Lambeau is going to be very difficult.
And now we get to the picks!
Saturday
Cincinnati (10-6) at Houston (12-4) - 4:30pm NBC
At this point, have the Bengals grown enough to win in the first round? Have they figured out how to beat an elite team on the road? The Bengals haven't won a playoff game since the 80's and would look to be difficult to get that first win against the Texans, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Ah, but last year is just that: last year, and this year the Bengals are on a roll heading in. Andy Dalton hasn't always performed well this season, but his play of late has been much better. Benjarvis Green-Ellis isn't healthy, but the Bengals need him to run well against a good Texans defense.
Luckily for the Bengals, the Texans have been struggling going into the playoffs and defensively haven't been very good since Brian Cushing went down earlier in the year. JJ Watt has had an outstanding season, but the if the Bengals can control him, they have a great shot at winning this game. Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson have had great years, but if the Texans fall behind, they have trouble catching up.
Pick: Bengals 27, Texans 23
Minnesota (10-6) at Green Bay (11-5) - 8pm NBC
I know the Vikings just beat the Packers behind Adrian Peterson and his run at the rushing record (sorry, couldn't resist that one). He came up 9 yards short, but the Vikings got the win and a trip to the playoffs when a few weeks ago many wondered if they'd finish with a winning record. Christian Ponder won't wow you, but he's been good enough lately to make some plays and keep the Vikings in the game.
Aaron Rodgers is going to want to avenge that final game though. He was rattled by the pressure by the Vikings at times, but still led the Packers to 34 points and a chance at victory. Instead, he watched as the Vikings ran the ball down the field to kick the game winning field goal. This game though is at Lambeau Field, where the Packers don't lose often in the playoffs. The Packers will try to make an early statement.
Pick: Packers 31, Vikings 20
Sunday
Indianapolis (11-5) at Baltimore (10-6) - 1pm CBS
It's not often that a team finishes with a better record than its opponent and is an underdog, but that's just what the Colts are. They've also been a fantastic story from the remarkable turnaround from last year to Chuck Pagano's battle with leukemia. They were 1-3 when he left the team to be treated and all Bruce Arians did was go 9-3 in relief before Pagano returned for the final game. Andrew Luck was as good as advertised and the Colts pulled out several wins that they frankly should've lost.
Unfortunately, luck eventually runs out and if the Ravens can find some inspiration behind Ray Lewis declaring he's retiring after this season, it could be a long day for the Colts in Baltimore. The Ravens were good at home and that will be one advantage they have. Another is Ray Rice against a poor run defense and if Jim Caldwell has any sense, he'll have Joe Flacco hand the ball off repeatedly to Rice. Regardless, this is a game that the Ravens should win.
Pick: Ravens 27, Colts 23
Seattle (11-5) at Washington (10-6) - 4:30pm FOX
This is one of the most unlikely playoff matchups in recent memory. Neither team was expected to make the playoffs, just be better than the previous year. Now here we are, getting ready to watch the Seahawks face the Redskins. The Seahawks have played tremendous defense all year long and Russell Wilson has continued to improve throughout the season to the point that many believe he's a potential superstar. Their problem tends to be playing on the road, which is what they have to do in this matchup.
The Redskins were dead and buried at 3-6 earlier in the season. Then they went 7-0 to finish the season, watching Robert Griffin III grit his teeth through injury to lead the Redskins to the playoffs. Even sweeter was knocking out the Cowboys to win the division. Now RGIII gets his chance to shine on the playoff stage and I don't think he'll disappoint. Coupled with Alfred Morris, this is a dangerous team to face. The Seahawks defense may finally break this week.
Pick: Redskins 20, Seahawks 17
Season: 124-48-1
Friday, December 21, 2012
What's ahead
As we approach the new year, that's usually a good time to evaluate life situations and projects that are going on.
For me, it's pretty simple. We have a child on the way, so much of my energy is going to go towards preparing for that child and the challenge that it will bring. In terms of my online activities, it'll still be simple.
This blog will remain largely unchanged. I've used it mostly to provide picks for the NFL season (and will continue to do so until the season ends), but occasionally I've sprinkled in other topics as well. I have a few ideas floating around in my head that I want to write about, but haven't exactly found a good way to convey those various ideas.
Yes, one of them involves the shooting of elementary kids.
I've tried to think of ways to present my ideas, whether it be in this blog or whether it be something I've put up via my YouTube channel, which has been a small endeavor to this point. Most of the content revolves around Payton, our animals, and my gameplay videos of Minecraft, which has become a favorite hobby of mine.
Yes, I have a channel on YouTube. I don't upload a ton, but I have a decent number of videos up for viewing. The gameplay stuff is still in its infancy, but I've enjoyed it thus far and hope to expand the scope of it to include my console games, not just PC. That said, the tool required to record console gaming isn't terribly expensive, but isn't a priority right now, as is purchasing a better microphone.
As of right now, I don't have any intention of doing a Christmas list like I've done in years past. Simply put, I don't know that I can come up with anything more elaborate than the things I've posted over the last several years and don't want to cheapen the entry by trying to get too cute with it. That thought could change of course, but seeing as it's the 21st, I don't see myself creating time before Christmas. The same could be said about my New Year's Resolution post that I typically do.
In short, the first few months of the new year are going to be hectic and filled with a lot of tasks as we prepare to bring a new life into this world. There are things to plan for, things to buy, and I don't want to spend a ton of time on wasted energy and projects. It's partially why I've kept my gaming time to a minimum. I'm not 18 anymore.
In the meantime, thank goodness the world hasn't ended like so many were worried it was going to, so I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday season.
For me, it's pretty simple. We have a child on the way, so much of my energy is going to go towards preparing for that child and the challenge that it will bring. In terms of my online activities, it'll still be simple.
This blog will remain largely unchanged. I've used it mostly to provide picks for the NFL season (and will continue to do so until the season ends), but occasionally I've sprinkled in other topics as well. I have a few ideas floating around in my head that I want to write about, but haven't exactly found a good way to convey those various ideas.
Yes, one of them involves the shooting of elementary kids.
I've tried to think of ways to present my ideas, whether it be in this blog or whether it be something I've put up via my YouTube channel, which has been a small endeavor to this point. Most of the content revolves around Payton, our animals, and my gameplay videos of Minecraft, which has become a favorite hobby of mine.
Yes, I have a channel on YouTube. I don't upload a ton, but I have a decent number of videos up for viewing. The gameplay stuff is still in its infancy, but I've enjoyed it thus far and hope to expand the scope of it to include my console games, not just PC. That said, the tool required to record console gaming isn't terribly expensive, but isn't a priority right now, as is purchasing a better microphone.
As of right now, I don't have any intention of doing a Christmas list like I've done in years past. Simply put, I don't know that I can come up with anything more elaborate than the things I've posted over the last several years and don't want to cheapen the entry by trying to get too cute with it. That thought could change of course, but seeing as it's the 21st, I don't see myself creating time before Christmas. The same could be said about my New Year's Resolution post that I typically do.
In short, the first few months of the new year are going to be hectic and filled with a lot of tasks as we prepare to bring a new life into this world. There are things to plan for, things to buy, and I don't want to spend a ton of time on wasted energy and projects. It's partially why I've kept my gaming time to a minimum. I'm not 18 anymore.
In the meantime, thank goodness the world hasn't ended like so many were worried it was going to, so I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday season.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
The Sports Mixer - Week 15 picks
The NFL season is coming down the home stretch and several teams still have a chance at a playoff berth, even if the odds are slim. The AFC in particular is intriguing as all four teams from the AFC North are still alive for a berth, although only two will likely make the playoffs.
Last week was a disaster for picks due to several upsets. The Panthers upended the Falcons, and while it was an upset, it was a game you could see coming for a while. The Falcons haven't been very dominant within their division and really should've lost the first meeting as well. Meanwhile, the Bears were falling flat agains the Vikings, the Bengals had several opportunities to put their game with the Cowboys away, the Steelers lost to a Chargers team that had been MIA for weeks, and the Bucs gave up a game-winning touchdown to the Eagles with no time left on the clock.
Speaking of the Steelers and Bengals, if either team misses the playoffs, both will look at week 14 as the reason. The Steelers were at home but were rolled by the Chargers, who had previously last shown signs of offensive life back when they led the Broncos 24-0 at halftime before imploding. The Bengals had chance after chance to put away the Cowboys, but between giving up sacks, interceptions, and dropped passes, they squandered a golden opportunity to put themselves in prime position to make the playoffs. Instead, all these loses keep hope alive for teams like the Jets and Browns, of which I don't think anyone would argue the Browns are the better team at this point.
In any case, the final push for the playoffs starts this week and nothing is guaranteed, especially after the beatdown the Texans received from the Patriots last week. Some teams have locked up a playoff spot, but seeding has to be settled still and the wild card spots in both conferences are wide open.
Hopefully this week shakes out better than last week. It was rough.
Thursday
Cincinnati (7-6) at Philadelphia (4-9) - 8:20pm NFL Network
The Bengals missed out on a big chance to strenghten their playoff positioning, but for some reason struggled against a Cowboys team that wasn't exactly playing inspired football until the fourth quarter. AJ Green had a couple of drops, Andy Dalton threw a bad interception and took a sack late that helped set up a scoring drive for the Cowboys, and what happened to the running game? The Bengals still have a shot at the playoffs, but they need to win and it starts tonight.
The Eagles needed that win, but let's be honest, it wasn't a sparkling performance to say the least. Andy Reid, unimpressed with Bryce Brown, dialed up pass after pass (granted, Brown's penchant for fumbling at the worst possible time could have something to do with it) and Nick Foles did his best against a poor pass defense. Give him credit for putting up big numbers, but more importantly throwing a winning touchdown pass with no time left. Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Bengals defense is better than the Buccaneers.
Pick: Bengals 24, Eagles 13
Sunday
NY Giants (8-5) at Atlanta (11-2) - 1pm FOX
This was a tough game to pick. I like the Giants just because late in the season they always seem to ratchet the intensity up and pick up their play. They also seem to thrive on the road, although that game in Cincinnati would have you fooled. Last week they got a much-needed win, especially with the Redskins and Cowboys nipping at their heels. Eli Manning and company know what the stakes are if they win, but also if they lose.
The Falcons, they just underwhelm me. They've won 11 games, but several have required comebacks or have required they hold off a comeback. They easily could be 9-4 or 8-5, but give them credit where credit is due: they don't stop playing. I thought about giving them the edge with them being at home, but while Julio Jones and Roddy White are terrific receivers, nothing else really scares me about this team.
Pick: Giants 27, Falcons 26
Minnesota (7-6) at St. Louis (6-6-1) - 1pm FOX
If the Vikings make the playoffs, which is a possibility at this point, it will solely be on the shoulders of Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson, but mostly Peterson. You wouldn't know this guy blew out his knee and missed all of last season by the way he's played thus far, and it isn't out of the question him having another big game this week against the Rams. He's simply been on a mission. He simply refused to go down against the Bears, who had no answer for him. Unfortunately, his quarterback has regressed and looks completely lost without Harvin on the field, who's been hurt.
The Rams just won't go away. They still have an outside shot at a playoff berth, but winning out is going to be required to do so. The offense won't wow you, but it has done enough in a couple games to get the win when least expected, especially against the 49ers. I don't think there will be a ton of offense in this game, but the Rams are at home and that should help.
Pick: Rams 23, Vikings 20
Jacksonville (2-11) at Miami (5-8) - 1pm CBS
The Jaguars can't catch a break. They had every opportunity to win their game against the Jets, but couldn't make the plays when they needed to and lost on a miscommunication between quarterback and receiver leading to Chad Henne's final pass being picked off. They hang around, but can't get over the hump. Except when they get blown out. I think they'll fight to the end in this game, but I can't see them pulling a win out.
The Dolphins are a team experiencing growing pains. They've looked promising at times, but at other times, they've looked absolutely awful on both sides of the ball. Ryan Tannehill has been the epitome of this issue, playing great games at one point, but also giving away games with rookie mistakes. His future looks bright, but they need to solidify the roster around him before they can make serious noise in their division. For one more week they'll keep their playoff hopes alive though.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 15
Tampa Bay (6-7) at New Orleans (5-8) - 1pm FOX
The Bucs had a chance to solidify their playoff hopes, then promptly squandered it by allowing Nick Foles to throw all over their secondary. Now they have to travel to play the Saints, who are finally seeing the bounty-gate scandal get lifted from their season. It will take a much better performance this week to go into New Orleans and win against an angry Saints team.
Why are they angry? They scored 27 points and were blown out by the Giants. Drew Brees has been throwing interceptions left and right, but what choice does have when the defense is as bad as its been? It's sad to think the Saints could score 30 and lose regularly, but that's what they're facing each and every week. Luckily for Brees, they get to face the worst secondary in football.
Pick: Saints 37, Buccaneers 31
Denver (10-3) at Baltimore (9-4) - 1pm CBS
It wasn't long ago when many figured the Texans were the number one seed and everyone else could fight for the rest of the playoff spots. The Texans losing last week opened the door not just for the Patriots, but for the Broncos. There isn't a team hotter than the Broncos, but they will be the first to tell you they need to get better. Their red zone offense last week wasn't pretty and will have to get better against the Ravens.
The Ravens are close to spiraling out of control. The loss to the Redskins was hard to fathom, especially since they seemed to be controlling the game in the first half. Joe Flacco showed how inconsistent he is though. Brilliant in the first half, miserable in the second, and if it weren't for the Steelers and Bengals stumbling, we'd be talking about them losing the division more. Now they have to fight just to hold onto the fourth seed.
Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 24
Indianapolis (9-4) at Houston (11-2) - 1pm CBS
The Colts are the story of the year. They have found way after way to win, and while it's easy to say it's because of their quarterback, Andrew Luck's numbers aren't that great. He's played like a rookie. The difference is he makes his mistakes early, then makes the winning play later on. This would be a tremendous game for them to win, but the Texans are going to be mad and will want to prove a point going forward.
The loss to the Patriots stung. There's no other way to look at it. Now they have to face their closest challenger twice in the final three weeks. They are going to want to send the Colts a message and it isn't going to be pleasant. It's almost the time for the Colts to return to the top, but not quite yet.
Pick: Texans 31, Colts 23
Seattle (8-5) at Buffalo (5-8) - 4:05pm FOX
The Seahawks won on the road two weeks ago, then completely dismantled a hapless Cardinals team last week. They get to play the Bills, who suddenly can't score a point when they need to. Needless to say, it could be a long day in Buffalo unless Ryan Fitzpatrick pulls one of those franchise quarterback performances out of his bag of tricks that he's occasionally known for.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Bills 12
Detroit (4-9) at Arizona (4-9) - 4:05pm FOX
The Lions were the talk of the NFL last year with all their come-from-behind wins. Now they can't hold a lead to save their season. Luckily, they play the Cardinals this week who could put an equipment manager at quarterback and not look any worse than have. Remember when they were 4-0? No one else does either.
Pick: Lions 34, Cardinals 6
Carolina (4-9) at San Diego (5-8) - 4:05pm FOX
The Panthers finally saw the Cam Newton from a year ago and look what happened? They rolled the Falcons and finally had a reason to feel good about themselves. That secondary is still a mess though. It might need an exorcism. The Chargers finally won a game and did so in convincing fashion. It won't save Norv Turner his job, but at least he continues to get wins in December. Well, except against the Panthers.
Pick: Panthers 28, Chargers 24
Pittsburgh (7-6) at Dallas (7-6) - 4:25pm FOX
I bet when the schedule makers made this season's schedule out, they saw this as a matchup between two of the best in the AFC and NFC. It'll still be good with both teams fighting for a playoff spot, but some of the luster was lost when the Cowboys decided to play lousy for a few weeks, the Steelers couldn't hang on to the football, and the football gods laughed. The Steelers just don't seem the same as they usually do and the Cowboys have been pulling wins out of thin air. I had a hard time with this one, but something is just off with the Steelers.
Pick: Cowboys 19, Steelers 16
Kansas City (2-11) at Oakland (3-10) - 4:25pm CBS
If the Raiders can't beat the Chiefs, then the whole team should just be thrown off the field and forfeit the rest of the season and start from scratch next season. The Chiefs had a feel-good win after the tragedy that struck, then returned to previous form against the Browns. Brady Quinn is not the answer and Jamaal Charles deserves better. If the Raiders struggle, they should just give Terrelle Pryor a chance and see what happens. It can't possibly be much worse than we've seen.
Pick: Raiders 24, Chiefs 13
San Francisco (9-3-1) at New England (10-3) - 8:20pm NBC
After what I saw the Patriots do to the Texans at home and how the 49ers have looked at times this season, it's hard for me to go against the Patriots. Sure, the 49ers have been dominant at times, especially against upper echelon opponents, but this game has disaster written all over it. Colin Kaepernick's first time against a Bill Belichick defense? That usually isn't a good thing and the Patriots offense is cruising along. The Patriots also want that number one seed badly.
Pick: Patriots 34, 49ers 20
Monday
NY Jets (6-7) at Tennessee (4-9) - 8:30pm ESPN
Ladies and gentlemen, your lowest rated Monday Night game of the year! The Jets stink, the Titans can't play defense, but at least Jake Locker looks all right when he isn't throwing pick-six's from his two yard line. I can't even talk about the Jets though. I don't even know how they scored 17 points last week.
Pick: Titans 13, Jets 6
Browns Game
Washington (7-6) at Cleveland (5-8) - 1pm FOX
Consider this for a moment: two teams who were bad last year meeting up with rookie quarterbacks, both fighting for a playoff spot. I know, the Browns chances are slim at 5-8, but they're in the discussion. Did anyone think this possible when they saw the schedule? Sure, RGIII was going to make his first visit to Cleveland, but did anyone think there'd be a more compelling storyline?
The Browns have won three straight and five of eight. The Redskins have also been on a roll and are one game behind the Giants for the division lead. Brandon Weeden hasn't been spectacular all the time, but he's made plays when needed and has cut back on the bad decisions. Trent Richardson hasn't run for a ton of yards, but he's scored 9 rushing touchdowns. Alfred Morris has been another gem found in the later rounds by Mike Shanahan.
In other words, there's something on the line for both teams and it isn't just a roster spot for next season. This is a good test for both the Browns defense and RGIII, who's thrived against lesser defenses of late. If he gets out and makes plays with his feet, it could be a long day for the Browns. If they can contain him and Morris, the Redskins are in trouble. I think the Browns can do it.
Pick: Browns 27, Redskins 23
Last: 10-6
Overall: 113-43-1
Last week was a disaster for picks due to several upsets. The Panthers upended the Falcons, and while it was an upset, it was a game you could see coming for a while. The Falcons haven't been very dominant within their division and really should've lost the first meeting as well. Meanwhile, the Bears were falling flat agains the Vikings, the Bengals had several opportunities to put their game with the Cowboys away, the Steelers lost to a Chargers team that had been MIA for weeks, and the Bucs gave up a game-winning touchdown to the Eagles with no time left on the clock.
Speaking of the Steelers and Bengals, if either team misses the playoffs, both will look at week 14 as the reason. The Steelers were at home but were rolled by the Chargers, who had previously last shown signs of offensive life back when they led the Broncos 24-0 at halftime before imploding. The Bengals had chance after chance to put away the Cowboys, but between giving up sacks, interceptions, and dropped passes, they squandered a golden opportunity to put themselves in prime position to make the playoffs. Instead, all these loses keep hope alive for teams like the Jets and Browns, of which I don't think anyone would argue the Browns are the better team at this point.
In any case, the final push for the playoffs starts this week and nothing is guaranteed, especially after the beatdown the Texans received from the Patriots last week. Some teams have locked up a playoff spot, but seeding has to be settled still and the wild card spots in both conferences are wide open.
Hopefully this week shakes out better than last week. It was rough.
Thursday
Cincinnati (7-6) at Philadelphia (4-9) - 8:20pm NFL Network
The Bengals missed out on a big chance to strenghten their playoff positioning, but for some reason struggled against a Cowboys team that wasn't exactly playing inspired football until the fourth quarter. AJ Green had a couple of drops, Andy Dalton threw a bad interception and took a sack late that helped set up a scoring drive for the Cowboys, and what happened to the running game? The Bengals still have a shot at the playoffs, but they need to win and it starts tonight.
The Eagles needed that win, but let's be honest, it wasn't a sparkling performance to say the least. Andy Reid, unimpressed with Bryce Brown, dialed up pass after pass (granted, Brown's penchant for fumbling at the worst possible time could have something to do with it) and Nick Foles did his best against a poor pass defense. Give him credit for putting up big numbers, but more importantly throwing a winning touchdown pass with no time left. Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Bengals defense is better than the Buccaneers.
Pick: Bengals 24, Eagles 13
Sunday
NY Giants (8-5) at Atlanta (11-2) - 1pm FOX
This was a tough game to pick. I like the Giants just because late in the season they always seem to ratchet the intensity up and pick up their play. They also seem to thrive on the road, although that game in Cincinnati would have you fooled. Last week they got a much-needed win, especially with the Redskins and Cowboys nipping at their heels. Eli Manning and company know what the stakes are if they win, but also if they lose.
The Falcons, they just underwhelm me. They've won 11 games, but several have required comebacks or have required they hold off a comeback. They easily could be 9-4 or 8-5, but give them credit where credit is due: they don't stop playing. I thought about giving them the edge with them being at home, but while Julio Jones and Roddy White are terrific receivers, nothing else really scares me about this team.
Pick: Giants 27, Falcons 26
Minnesota (7-6) at St. Louis (6-6-1) - 1pm FOX
If the Vikings make the playoffs, which is a possibility at this point, it will solely be on the shoulders of Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson, but mostly Peterson. You wouldn't know this guy blew out his knee and missed all of last season by the way he's played thus far, and it isn't out of the question him having another big game this week against the Rams. He's simply been on a mission. He simply refused to go down against the Bears, who had no answer for him. Unfortunately, his quarterback has regressed and looks completely lost without Harvin on the field, who's been hurt.
The Rams just won't go away. They still have an outside shot at a playoff berth, but winning out is going to be required to do so. The offense won't wow you, but it has done enough in a couple games to get the win when least expected, especially against the 49ers. I don't think there will be a ton of offense in this game, but the Rams are at home and that should help.
Pick: Rams 23, Vikings 20
Jacksonville (2-11) at Miami (5-8) - 1pm CBS
The Jaguars can't catch a break. They had every opportunity to win their game against the Jets, but couldn't make the plays when they needed to and lost on a miscommunication between quarterback and receiver leading to Chad Henne's final pass being picked off. They hang around, but can't get over the hump. Except when they get blown out. I think they'll fight to the end in this game, but I can't see them pulling a win out.
The Dolphins are a team experiencing growing pains. They've looked promising at times, but at other times, they've looked absolutely awful on both sides of the ball. Ryan Tannehill has been the epitome of this issue, playing great games at one point, but also giving away games with rookie mistakes. His future looks bright, but they need to solidify the roster around him before they can make serious noise in their division. For one more week they'll keep their playoff hopes alive though.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Jaguars 15
Tampa Bay (6-7) at New Orleans (5-8) - 1pm FOX
The Bucs had a chance to solidify their playoff hopes, then promptly squandered it by allowing Nick Foles to throw all over their secondary. Now they have to travel to play the Saints, who are finally seeing the bounty-gate scandal get lifted from their season. It will take a much better performance this week to go into New Orleans and win against an angry Saints team.
Why are they angry? They scored 27 points and were blown out by the Giants. Drew Brees has been throwing interceptions left and right, but what choice does have when the defense is as bad as its been? It's sad to think the Saints could score 30 and lose regularly, but that's what they're facing each and every week. Luckily for Brees, they get to face the worst secondary in football.
Pick: Saints 37, Buccaneers 31
Denver (10-3) at Baltimore (9-4) - 1pm CBS
It wasn't long ago when many figured the Texans were the number one seed and everyone else could fight for the rest of the playoff spots. The Texans losing last week opened the door not just for the Patriots, but for the Broncos. There isn't a team hotter than the Broncos, but they will be the first to tell you they need to get better. Their red zone offense last week wasn't pretty and will have to get better against the Ravens.
The Ravens are close to spiraling out of control. The loss to the Redskins was hard to fathom, especially since they seemed to be controlling the game in the first half. Joe Flacco showed how inconsistent he is though. Brilliant in the first half, miserable in the second, and if it weren't for the Steelers and Bengals stumbling, we'd be talking about them losing the division more. Now they have to fight just to hold onto the fourth seed.
Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 24
Indianapolis (9-4) at Houston (11-2) - 1pm CBS
The Colts are the story of the year. They have found way after way to win, and while it's easy to say it's because of their quarterback, Andrew Luck's numbers aren't that great. He's played like a rookie. The difference is he makes his mistakes early, then makes the winning play later on. This would be a tremendous game for them to win, but the Texans are going to be mad and will want to prove a point going forward.
The loss to the Patriots stung. There's no other way to look at it. Now they have to face their closest challenger twice in the final three weeks. They are going to want to send the Colts a message and it isn't going to be pleasant. It's almost the time for the Colts to return to the top, but not quite yet.
Pick: Texans 31, Colts 23
Seattle (8-5) at Buffalo (5-8) - 4:05pm FOX
The Seahawks won on the road two weeks ago, then completely dismantled a hapless Cardinals team last week. They get to play the Bills, who suddenly can't score a point when they need to. Needless to say, it could be a long day in Buffalo unless Ryan Fitzpatrick pulls one of those franchise quarterback performances out of his bag of tricks that he's occasionally known for.
Pick: Seahawks 20, Bills 12
Detroit (4-9) at Arizona (4-9) - 4:05pm FOX
The Lions were the talk of the NFL last year with all their come-from-behind wins. Now they can't hold a lead to save their season. Luckily, they play the Cardinals this week who could put an equipment manager at quarterback and not look any worse than have. Remember when they were 4-0? No one else does either.
Pick: Lions 34, Cardinals 6
Carolina (4-9) at San Diego (5-8) - 4:05pm FOX
The Panthers finally saw the Cam Newton from a year ago and look what happened? They rolled the Falcons and finally had a reason to feel good about themselves. That secondary is still a mess though. It might need an exorcism. The Chargers finally won a game and did so in convincing fashion. It won't save Norv Turner his job, but at least he continues to get wins in December. Well, except against the Panthers.
Pick: Panthers 28, Chargers 24
Pittsburgh (7-6) at Dallas (7-6) - 4:25pm FOX
I bet when the schedule makers made this season's schedule out, they saw this as a matchup between two of the best in the AFC and NFC. It'll still be good with both teams fighting for a playoff spot, but some of the luster was lost when the Cowboys decided to play lousy for a few weeks, the Steelers couldn't hang on to the football, and the football gods laughed. The Steelers just don't seem the same as they usually do and the Cowboys have been pulling wins out of thin air. I had a hard time with this one, but something is just off with the Steelers.
Pick: Cowboys 19, Steelers 16
Kansas City (2-11) at Oakland (3-10) - 4:25pm CBS
If the Raiders can't beat the Chiefs, then the whole team should just be thrown off the field and forfeit the rest of the season and start from scratch next season. The Chiefs had a feel-good win after the tragedy that struck, then returned to previous form against the Browns. Brady Quinn is not the answer and Jamaal Charles deserves better. If the Raiders struggle, they should just give Terrelle Pryor a chance and see what happens. It can't possibly be much worse than we've seen.
Pick: Raiders 24, Chiefs 13
San Francisco (9-3-1) at New England (10-3) - 8:20pm NBC
After what I saw the Patriots do to the Texans at home and how the 49ers have looked at times this season, it's hard for me to go against the Patriots. Sure, the 49ers have been dominant at times, especially against upper echelon opponents, but this game has disaster written all over it. Colin Kaepernick's first time against a Bill Belichick defense? That usually isn't a good thing and the Patriots offense is cruising along. The Patriots also want that number one seed badly.
Pick: Patriots 34, 49ers 20
Monday
NY Jets (6-7) at Tennessee (4-9) - 8:30pm ESPN
Ladies and gentlemen, your lowest rated Monday Night game of the year! The Jets stink, the Titans can't play defense, but at least Jake Locker looks all right when he isn't throwing pick-six's from his two yard line. I can't even talk about the Jets though. I don't even know how they scored 17 points last week.
Pick: Titans 13, Jets 6
Browns Game
Washington (7-6) at Cleveland (5-8) - 1pm FOX
Consider this for a moment: two teams who were bad last year meeting up with rookie quarterbacks, both fighting for a playoff spot. I know, the Browns chances are slim at 5-8, but they're in the discussion. Did anyone think this possible when they saw the schedule? Sure, RGIII was going to make his first visit to Cleveland, but did anyone think there'd be a more compelling storyline?
The Browns have won three straight and five of eight. The Redskins have also been on a roll and are one game behind the Giants for the division lead. Brandon Weeden hasn't been spectacular all the time, but he's made plays when needed and has cut back on the bad decisions. Trent Richardson hasn't run for a ton of yards, but he's scored 9 rushing touchdowns. Alfred Morris has been another gem found in the later rounds by Mike Shanahan.
In other words, there's something on the line for both teams and it isn't just a roster spot for next season. This is a good test for both the Browns defense and RGIII, who's thrived against lesser defenses of late. If he gets out and makes plays with his feet, it could be a long day for the Browns. If they can contain him and Morris, the Redskins are in trouble. I think the Browns can do it.
Pick: Browns 27, Redskins 23
Last: 10-6
Overall: 113-43-1
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
The Sports Mixer - After further review
Each week the Sports Mixer takes a look back at the previous Browns game, this time a look at the Browns 30-7 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, and discusses what was learned. This intro is never the same, is it?
Jamaal Charles came to play, unfortunately, the rest of the Chiefs took Sunday off. He ripped off an 80-yard touchdown run on the first place from scrimmage, ultimately compiling 165 yards on 18 carries. That 9.1 average is gaudy, and averaging 5 ypc on his other 17 runs is still high, but considering what happened on that first play, the defense did a nice job clamping down on Charles and hitting him hard every time.
Trent Richardson appears to be hurt, but continues to soldier on and has picked up 9 touchdowns for his pain. Montario Hardesty has done a nice job filling in for Richardson from series to series, picking up 52 yards on 10 carries in this game. He could've had a touchdown, but he fumbled at the goal line, which prompted Pat Shurmer to reinsert Richardson to pick up the touchdown. Hardesty was upset, but he had only himself to blame. His fumbling problems in the preseason landed him third on the depth chart early on. That said, he doesn't waste any time in the backfield. He gets the ball, finds the hole, and runs through it quickly.
Josh Gordon continues to impress, not just with his hands, but with how much better his routes have gotten and how much better he sheds defensive backs at the line of scrimmage. Simply put, he's developing into a top-tier wide receiver at an alarming rate and it's not out of the question that he could reach 1,000 yards receiving. The other thing is he had a drop early in a drive that essentially helped stall it out on a slant. It was a good pass, he just dropped it. He made amends by making the grab on the exact same type of route later on to pick up a quick first down. Is he immune from drops? No, but he makes up for it and doesn't seem to become infected with the dropsies that his counterpart has struggled with.
Speaking of Greg Little, he's really come on strong of late. Since the bye week, he's had maybe on drop, made several tough grabs, and has been superb blocking downfield for other receivers and running backs when he's not getting the ball. Toss in a toss play where he lined up as the running back, and it seems like the Browns and Little are finally figuring out how to put it all together. He's been a different player with the emergence of Gordon, and that's a very good thing.
The defensive line has been impressive, this despite getting gashed at times by Charles. Fact is, Charles has gashed a lot of teams but the Browns made the proper adjustment and limited the damage after the first possession. Then they went after Brady Quinn after the Browns took command of the game in the second half, leading to five sacks.
The secondary looks so much better with Joe Haden out there, but it helps having better play from the defensive line and linebackers. It's allowed Sheldon Brown, Buster Skrine, and Dmitri Patterson to play in more comfortable roles. Quinn isn't a very good quarterback, but they didn't allow him to gain much confidence with his passes.
Travis Benjamin may have played his way into lead returner with his 93 yard return on what was supposed to be a punt block play. In the open field, you can see how challenging it is to bring him down. He blew past the first wave of defenders, then essentially ran past everyone, including his escort of blockers that was initially ahead of him. The punter saw Josh Cribbs coming and said no thanks. From there, Benjamin ran the Browns into the lead and possibly showed Cribbs the door after this season.
The offensive line doesn't do a great job of run blocking, but the improvement in the pass game is clear. Sure, Brandon Weeden gets a number of passes knocked down, but some of that is just because the defense isn't getting to Weeden and is jumping up to block passes. Steve Tasker mentioned on the TV broadcast that Weeden could benefit from a pump fake, a move he tried later in the game. It would have been successful if the defender hadn't managed to grab a hold of Weeden's jersey on the way by, preventing Weeden from putting enough on the pass to score an easy touchdown. Overall though, the line has played well.
Weeden has taken his lumps this season, but he's passed for over 3,000 in his rookie season, won five games, hasn't sustained any major injuries, and has managed to lead sustained drives at critical points the last couple of weeks. You'd like to see the batted passes drop and a little better accuracy, but overall, he's done well enough to earn the starting nod next season in this corner.
Pat Shurmer has taken lumps for his decisions, but he's drastically improved over the last few weeks. Some will question his challenge on the Cribbs run, but this observer couldn't tell if the knee was down and Cribbs deserved at least a chance at that score. The timeout wasn't wasted in the long run as the Browns time management was the best it's been all season long. At one point, this corner had realized that it was late in the game and not once had the Browns used a timeout due to the playclock running down. The imagination on offense was a welcome sight as well as the Browns used the wildcat twice, a double-reverse with Benjamin, and Little out of the backfield for nice gains.
It isn't entirely out of the question for the Browns to run the table and finish 8-8, although it's highly unlikely given the level of competition they have coming up. That said, they're in the playoff hunt still and that's something we haven't been able to say in a few years now. The Redskins game may be the most winnable game on the schedule though, seeing as trips to Denver and Pittsburgh follow this final home game. We'll see how far this team has grown over the next three weeks, or if they falter, how far they still have to go.
Finally, the NFL is such an unpredictable league in that few probably saw the Falcons losing to the Panthers, the Steelers getting rolled by the previously lethargic Chargers, the Texans failing to show up against the Patriots, or the Bears getting run over by the Vikings. It was a tough week for picks but that's what makes football great; any team can win any day.
Jamaal Charles came to play, unfortunately, the rest of the Chiefs took Sunday off. He ripped off an 80-yard touchdown run on the first place from scrimmage, ultimately compiling 165 yards on 18 carries. That 9.1 average is gaudy, and averaging 5 ypc on his other 17 runs is still high, but considering what happened on that first play, the defense did a nice job clamping down on Charles and hitting him hard every time.
Trent Richardson appears to be hurt, but continues to soldier on and has picked up 9 touchdowns for his pain. Montario Hardesty has done a nice job filling in for Richardson from series to series, picking up 52 yards on 10 carries in this game. He could've had a touchdown, but he fumbled at the goal line, which prompted Pat Shurmer to reinsert Richardson to pick up the touchdown. Hardesty was upset, but he had only himself to blame. His fumbling problems in the preseason landed him third on the depth chart early on. That said, he doesn't waste any time in the backfield. He gets the ball, finds the hole, and runs through it quickly.
Josh Gordon continues to impress, not just with his hands, but with how much better his routes have gotten and how much better he sheds defensive backs at the line of scrimmage. Simply put, he's developing into a top-tier wide receiver at an alarming rate and it's not out of the question that he could reach 1,000 yards receiving. The other thing is he had a drop early in a drive that essentially helped stall it out on a slant. It was a good pass, he just dropped it. He made amends by making the grab on the exact same type of route later on to pick up a quick first down. Is he immune from drops? No, but he makes up for it and doesn't seem to become infected with the dropsies that his counterpart has struggled with.
Speaking of Greg Little, he's really come on strong of late. Since the bye week, he's had maybe on drop, made several tough grabs, and has been superb blocking downfield for other receivers and running backs when he's not getting the ball. Toss in a toss play where he lined up as the running back, and it seems like the Browns and Little are finally figuring out how to put it all together. He's been a different player with the emergence of Gordon, and that's a very good thing.
The defensive line has been impressive, this despite getting gashed at times by Charles. Fact is, Charles has gashed a lot of teams but the Browns made the proper adjustment and limited the damage after the first possession. Then they went after Brady Quinn after the Browns took command of the game in the second half, leading to five sacks.
The secondary looks so much better with Joe Haden out there, but it helps having better play from the defensive line and linebackers. It's allowed Sheldon Brown, Buster Skrine, and Dmitri Patterson to play in more comfortable roles. Quinn isn't a very good quarterback, but they didn't allow him to gain much confidence with his passes.
Travis Benjamin may have played his way into lead returner with his 93 yard return on what was supposed to be a punt block play. In the open field, you can see how challenging it is to bring him down. He blew past the first wave of defenders, then essentially ran past everyone, including his escort of blockers that was initially ahead of him. The punter saw Josh Cribbs coming and said no thanks. From there, Benjamin ran the Browns into the lead and possibly showed Cribbs the door after this season.
The offensive line doesn't do a great job of run blocking, but the improvement in the pass game is clear. Sure, Brandon Weeden gets a number of passes knocked down, but some of that is just because the defense isn't getting to Weeden and is jumping up to block passes. Steve Tasker mentioned on the TV broadcast that Weeden could benefit from a pump fake, a move he tried later in the game. It would have been successful if the defender hadn't managed to grab a hold of Weeden's jersey on the way by, preventing Weeden from putting enough on the pass to score an easy touchdown. Overall though, the line has played well.
Weeden has taken his lumps this season, but he's passed for over 3,000 in his rookie season, won five games, hasn't sustained any major injuries, and has managed to lead sustained drives at critical points the last couple of weeks. You'd like to see the batted passes drop and a little better accuracy, but overall, he's done well enough to earn the starting nod next season in this corner.
Pat Shurmer has taken lumps for his decisions, but he's drastically improved over the last few weeks. Some will question his challenge on the Cribbs run, but this observer couldn't tell if the knee was down and Cribbs deserved at least a chance at that score. The timeout wasn't wasted in the long run as the Browns time management was the best it's been all season long. At one point, this corner had realized that it was late in the game and not once had the Browns used a timeout due to the playclock running down. The imagination on offense was a welcome sight as well as the Browns used the wildcat twice, a double-reverse with Benjamin, and Little out of the backfield for nice gains.
It isn't entirely out of the question for the Browns to run the table and finish 8-8, although it's highly unlikely given the level of competition they have coming up. That said, they're in the playoff hunt still and that's something we haven't been able to say in a few years now. The Redskins game may be the most winnable game on the schedule though, seeing as trips to Denver and Pittsburgh follow this final home game. We'll see how far this team has grown over the next three weeks, or if they falter, how far they still have to go.
Finally, the NFL is such an unpredictable league in that few probably saw the Falcons losing to the Panthers, the Steelers getting rolled by the previously lethargic Chargers, the Texans failing to show up against the Patriots, or the Bears getting run over by the Vikings. It was a tough week for picks but that's what makes football great; any team can win any day.
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